Nobody was surprised when the Buffalo Bills started 4-0.
However, an upset loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football has left some members of Bills Mafia wondering if they overestimated their team’s ceiling based on that hot start.
Buffalo’s first four opponents are a combined 3-21.
When the Bills welcomed the AFC East rival Patriots to town last Sunday, New England owned a .500 record.
While the Patriots have since secured back-to-back wins over Buffalo and New Orleans to improve to 4-2 – one game back of the Bills for first place in the division.
Tonight, Buffalo will get the opportunity to respond, but it won’t be easy on the road for a primetime showdown against a talented opponent that should be fresh coming off a bye week in the Atlanta Falcons.
Buffalo is a 3.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
Interestingly, despite their strong start, the Bills have underachieved relative to expectations this season – at least as far as the spread is concerned.
Buffalo is 4-1 straight up but just 1-4 against the spread.
The AFC favourite covered in a 30-10 win over the division rival New York Jets in Week 2, but has gone 0-3 ATS since then, including an outright loss to the Patriots as an eight-point favourite at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, Michael Penix and the Falcons have alternated wins and losses both straight up and against the spread through their first four games.
In a match-up featuring two of the league’s best running backs, it will be interesting to see which one finishes with the better numbers.
James Cook ranks second in the NFL with 450 rushing yards and is tied for the league lead with five scores.
In last week’s loss to the Patriots, he was held to just 49 rushing yards on 15 carries while getting held out of the end zone for the first time in nine games.
Cook had recorded 100+ scrimmage yards in four straight games to start the season.
Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson leads the NFL with 146.0 scrimmage yards per game this season.
Robinson set a career-high with 181.0 scrimmage yards in a Week 4 win over the Washington Commanders.
Atlanta’s superstar running back actually leads the team with 270 receiving yards through four games.
Now he’ll face a Buffalo defence that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards but the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season.
Making matters worse for the Bills is the fact that linebacker Matt Milano, defensive tackle T.J. Sanders, and safety Damar Hamlin have all been ruled out.
Defensive tackle Ed Oliver was also limited with an ankle injury in practice this week and is still not 100 per cent, even though he told reporters he’s ready to return.
The Falcons love to run outside zone run concepts and get the ball to Robinson in space in the passing game.
They also like to use a package with Robinson and backup running back Tyler Algeier both on the field at the same time.
Buffalo has conceded the third most running back yards before contact per attempt in the NFL this season.
The Bills have also allowed the third-most yards per carry versus zone-blocking carries this season.
Bijan Robinson is on pace for 1,335 rushing yards & 1,147 receiving yards
Only three NFL RBs have EVER rushed and received for 1,000+ yards in the same season pic.twitter.com/ZWOUasPPYF
— Not Bijan (@InBijanWeTrust) October 12, 2025
With wide receiver Darnell Mooney out and Atlanta coming off a bye week, I’m looking for the Falcons to scheme to run their offence through their running back tandem once again this week.
I’ll lock in Robinson over 17.5 1st quarter rushing yards.
I’ll also lock in Robinson 72 or more rushing yards, Robinson 32 or more receiving yards and Allgeier 30+ rushing yards in a game Atlanta will feature its running backs heavily in.
Meanwhile, the Bills offence is also banged up with tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Curtis Samuel both dealing with injuries that could limit or keep them out.
Left tackle Dion Dawkins is dealing with a thumb injury.
If you’re a regular reader of this column, you know that I’ve been a big fan of Kincaid and the role he’s played in the Buffalo offence this season.
Another 3-0 sweep with the best bets for Sunday Night Football‼️
Kincaid over 30.5 receiving 💰
Diggs over 46.5 receiving 💰
Shakir over 42.5 receiving 💰
Climbed the ladder with Kincaid 🪜
Another winning NFL Sunday for anybody who tailed my picks ✅ pic.twitter.com/hil6yRtBh5
— Domenic Padula (@Domenic_Padula) October 6, 2025
However, with Kincaid banged up, we could see Khalil Shakir featured even more in the passing game.
Shakir has registered 45 or more receiving yards in three straight and four of five games this season.
My first look for the Bills passing game would have been the tight end Kincaid if he wasn’t banged up.
With Kincaid out, I’ll look at Shakir 5+ receptions at -104.
The Bills want to establish the run with Cook, but the Falcons have been excellent against the run this season.
When the Patriots slowed down Cook last week, Allen used his legs with 53 rushing yards on nine attempts.
Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season against a division rival in a primetime game.
Considering the Falcons have been excellent against opposing running backs, plus Kincaid, Samuel, and Dawkins are all banged up, Allen 34 or more rushing yards is my favourite bet for Monday Night Football.
As for the second game of tonight’s Monday Night Football double-header, the Washington Commanders are another team that will be leaning on a few key players to step up on offence due to several injuries.
Wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown have already been ruled out against the Chicago Bears.
Deebo Samuel is questionable with a heel injury.
Meanwhile, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. and tight end John Bates are both dealing with injuries.
All those injuries should lead to a heavier than usual workload for tight end Zach Ertz, who has averaged 2.8 receptions for 29.8 receiving yards this season.
The Bears play a ton of two-high looks on defence, which should open space for Ertz to operate over the middle.
When these teams played last season, Ertz exploded for 77 yards on seven receptions in one of his best performances of the season.
He’ll need to step up for the Commanders tonight.
I’ll take Ertz 28 or more receiving yards as a best bet.
I’ll also play Jacory Croskey-Merritt 70 or more rushing.
Here's the leaderboard for RBs creating gash plays 👇
Highest percentage of runs gaining 5+ yards:
43% - Javonte Williams
43% - James Cook
44% - Jordan Mason
44% - Breece Hall
58% - Jacory Croskey-Merritt
(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/tmDpo6wJ4W
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 6, 2025
The rookie running back exploded for a career-high 111 rushing yards on 14 carries in last week’s road win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
He also had two catches for 39 yards in the win.
JCM is Washington’s most talented running back and the combination of a breakout performance and an injury to Rodriguez could open the door to another big game against the worst run defence in the NFL.
The Bears have allowed an average of 153 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry this season.
Croskey-Merritt has averaged a ridiculous 6.6 yards per carry this season and is ready to step into the primetime spotlight to showcase his skill set as the No. 1 back.
The Commanders’ backfield has been a three-man committee, but Jacory Croskey-Meritt exploded for 27 fantasy points on 16 touches last week.
JCM now faces a Bears front that allows the 4th-most points per game to RBs....big upside this week. pic.twitter.com/XEnsKISGqp
— Moody (@EricNMoody) October 12, 2025
With the potential for rain in the forecast, we could see both teams rely on their ground games even more.
Croskey-Merritt 70 or more rushing yards is a play.
Croskey-Merritt over 12.5 1st quarter rushing yards is also a play.
I’ll also lock in Croskey-Merritt over 8.5 receiving yards.
Hopefully, you were busy with Thanksgiving Sunday and didn’t have time to lock in every bet in The Playbook on Sunday.
If you did, you’re also sitting on Luke McCaffrey over 20.5 receiving yards as a play for tonight.
I’m thankful for the opportunity to enjoy a Monday Night Football doubleheader on TSN tonight.
Hopefully, we can finish off Week 6 on a high note.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families!
DP’s Best Bets for Monday Night Football
Josh Allen 34 or more rushing yards
Khalil Shakir 5+ receptions -104
Bijan Robinson over 17.5 1st quarter rushing yards
Bijan Robinson 72 or more rushing yards
Bijan Robinson 32 or more receiving yards
Tyler Allgeier 30 or more rushing yards
Zach Ertz 28 or more receiving yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 70 or more rushing yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 12.5 1st quarter rushing
Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 8.5 receiving yards
Luke McCaffrey over 20.5 receiving yards