Every week in the NFL, we seem to see a shocking outcome or two, making picking games more complicated. Still, it’s always a fun exercise to take an early look at the spreads and try to get an advantage before the books adjust them. Here is the first look at the best picks against the spread to bet on this week:
Washington Commanders -2.5 at Dallas Cowboys
Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are one win away from the Super Bowl
Jan 18, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) throws a pass during the first quarter against Detroit Lions in a 2025 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
As good as the Cowboys offense has been this season, their defense has been equally as bad. They have played better at home this season, which is why this game is unlikely to be a blowout; however, the Commanders have some big names on defense that can lead to them getting key stops. The Commanders also have Jayden Daniels at QB, who can shred the Cowboys defense, like every other QB has this season. The Cowboys defense has allowed a league-worst 428 yards per game this season, and they are 31st in points allowed per game, giving up 30.7 per game. The Commanders should win this game handily, considering they are a top 10 offense in terms of scoring, and that is with Jayden Daniels missing two games.
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Carolina Panthers -1.5 at New York Jets
Bryce Young
Sep 15, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
The Panthers are a much better team than the public gives them credit for. Despite being blown out a couple of times this season, they have also won some big games against teams that were favored to beat them. QB Bryce Young is playing good football; their running game has been excellent, whether it be Chuba Hubbard or Rico Dowdle, and their defense might bend, but it doesn’t necessarily break. On the other side of this game, the Jets have proven to be the worst team in football. Their defense has been terrible, and their offense is incredibly inconsistent. Their pass offense is ranked last in the NFL, and simply put, they cannot score enough points to win this game. The Panthers are coming off a big win against the Cowboys, who two weeks ago beat up the Jets.
New England Patriots -7.5 at Tennessee Titans
Drake Maye
Sep 19, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass against the New York Jets during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images
This is a battle of two teams that are headed in opposite directions. The Patriots have won three straight games, with their most impressive win coming on Sunday Night Football in week 5 against the Buffalo Bills. The Titans have one win this season, and it came in a game that they had no business winning. If not for horrible mistakes by the Cardinals, the Titans would be winless this season. Patriots QB Drake Maye is playing elite football right now, and the Patriots defense is getting stronger every week. The Titans defense will not be able to slow down the Patriots offense, and the Patriots defense will put tons of pressure on rookie QB Cam Ward and should force some turnovers too. The Patriots will be in control of this game from start to finish.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs -12.5
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) retrieves a touchdown ball belonging to wide receiver Xavier Worthy (not pictured) during the second half against the Baltimore Ravens at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
The Raiders got a win last week, but it came against the Titans, who are one of the two worst teams in football. The Raiders have struggled to get their running game going, with Ashton Jeanty, and QB Geno Smith has been a turnover machine. Simply put, you cannot beat the Chiefs if you make mistakes, and the Raiders make too many. The Chiefs are coming off their best game of the season, beating the powerhouse Lions on Sunday Night Football. The defense shut down the Lions run game and held star WR Amon Ra St. Brown to under 50 receiving yards. Offensively, the Chiefs got their run game going finally, and Patrick Mahomes is playing at a high level once again. The Chiefs should dominate this game on both sides of the football and should run away with an easy victory.
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Here are two takeaways from every game in week 7: https://lists.thebiglead.com/sports/nfl-two-takeaways-from-every-game-sunday-in-week-6/
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