With seven matchdays in the books, we reopen* The xG Files *to look at the Premier League‘s underlying numbers.
During the first international break of 2025-26, Opta Analyst committed to being football’s equivalent of Mulder & Scully this season by opening The xG Files. That means intermittently delivering key insights from Opta’s various xG-related metrics in the Premier League, helping build a truer picture of who’s excelling in front of goal, in goal or creatively – and who isn’t.
The xG Files are for those who want to dig a little deeper, who want to believe in data that scratches beyond goals, assists and clean sheets, to get a better understanding of player impact.
With the second international break of the season upon us, we revisit The xG Files to see what’s changed…
Who’s Hot, Who’s Not?
The reason we only want to reopen The xG Files on an intermittent basis is that we’d rather we weren’t just repeating ourselves all the time… Well, Erling Haaland is marking himself out as an early problem in that respect.
He’d charged out in front of everyone else in the xG stakes after the first three matchdays, which is when we first published The xG Files, and he’s not slowed down since.
Looking specifically at non-penalty xG, Haaland’s output is dwarfing that of the competition. His shots (excluding penalties) have been worth 7.7 xG, which is more than double anyone else in the Premier League.
Premier League - non-penalty xG
Jean-Philippe Mateta (3.3 non-pen xG) is Haaland’s closest challenger in that respect. Considering Haaland’s already scored nine times (none were penalties) and no one else has managed more than five when discounting spot-kicks, he could probably have the Golden Boot award wrapped up by Christmas.
The Manchester City machine isn’t the player who’s overperforming the most in relation to xG, however.
Chelsea midfielder Moisés Caicedo has scored three goals this term from just 0.52 non-pen xG, therefore giving him an overperformance of 2.48; that puts him out in front. And when you remind yourself about those specific strikes, the numbers make sense.
Non-penalty xG overperformance
His first of the season, against West Ham back in August, was a slightly awkward one, even if little more than six yards out, and then he provided a couple of piledrivers against Brentford and Liverpool. In fact, he’s one of only two players to score more than once from outside the box this term.
The other? Well, that gives us a seamless segue to discuss Antoine Semenyo. The Bournemouth attacker is probably one of the Premier League’s two most in-form players with Haaland, having managed nine goal involvements (eight, excluding penalties), second only to the Man City star.
Five of those were non-penalty goals. As such, his 2.2 overperformance in relation to non-pen xG puts him just behind Caicedo and just ahead of Jarrod Bowen (2.19).
At the opposite end of the scale, Mateta could currently only dream of such efficiency. The Palace centre-forward has been transformed since Oliver Glasner took charge at Selhurst Park, but he’s not had a great time of it in front of goal this term; his 2.3 underperformance in relation to non-pen xG is the most significant of all Premier League players in 2025-26.
In fairness to him, though, he’s been denied by some unlikely saves, and the post robbed him of a stunner against Liverpool. Either way, he’s been an absolute handful – if he keeps it up, the goals will surely start flowing again.
Expected Influence
Last time in The xG Files, we also looked specifically at expected assists (xA). This time, however, we’re going to do something slightly different and instead delve into the combined totals of (non-penalty) xG and xA to get a broader idea of attacking threat.
Obviously, Haaland is at a bit of an advantage because of his frankly outrageous non-pen xG output doing a lot of heavy lifting. So, again, he leads the way having with a combined figure of 8.44, which is also more than double that of anyone else.
And, perhaps somewhat unsurprisingly, Mateta is second (3.74). But, we ought to point out (without wanting to rub salt in the wounds) that the Frenchman’s 2.74 underperformance in relation to combined non-pen xG and xA is the most significant of all Premier League players through seven matchdays.
Manchester United’s Amad Diallo isn’t far behind. His shots and chances created have been worth 2.72 xG, but he’s yet to set up or score a goal this season.
Semenyo is having no such worries, though. His eight non-penalty goal involvements is a whopping 4.8 more than his combined non-pen xG and xA (3.17). Now, it should be pointed out that he ranks as high as sixth in the Premier League for non-pen xG + xA, so there’s clearly a base of effectiveness to his output.
Premier League overperformance vs non-pen xG + xA
But there will be those questioning how sustainable his form is, asking whether it’s a sign of immense quality or getting lucky. While we aren’t suggesting ‘luck’ was at play, a couple of his goals came from unlikely positions/situations, and similar could be said of his assists.
For instance, he got the ‘assist’ for Justin Kluivert’s long-range screamer against Fulham after a simple pass that was followed by the Dutchman carrying the ball about 30 yards; similarly, Alex Scott had a lot of work to do before scoring at home to Brighton after receiving Semenyo’s pass.
Semenyo has still enjoyed a brilliant start to the season, though, make no mistake. It’s just that sometimes “goals and assists” doesn’t quite tell the full story.
But further supporting more general praise of Semenyo, we can determine the combined xG generated by players through shots (excluding penalties) and setting up chances, and then look at that total as a proportion of the team’s overall figure.
Semenyo’s sitting pretty in fourth place, with his combined non-pen xG and xA of 3.17 accounting for 41.5% of Bournemouth’s total non-pen xG.
Involvement in team xG proportion
Enzo Fernández warrants acclaim, too. In a list that’s largely dominated by forwards and wingers, the Argentina international is as high as fifth. His shots and chances created have generated 3.47 xG, pretty much one third (33.4%) of Chelsea’s overall non-pen xG. Sure, he doesn’t play as deep as he once did at Stamford Bridge, but this is still illustrative of an impressive and influential start to the campaign for him.
The Bigger Picture
When we looked at The xG Files during the September international break, we were working with a small sample size. That meant a single game could warp the numbers considerably, and so we were careful not to jump to any hasty conclusions.
With that in mind, we were eager to point out that Manchester United’s noteworthy xG figures at the time were influenced by their win over Burnley.
Now, however, the sample size is much bigger and still Manchester United lead the way for overall xG with 14.06; in fact, they’re the only club to go beyond 13 xG.
We shouldn’t forget that they’ve had several penalties, so when spot-kicks are excluded, United actually slide down to third with 11.69. But that’s still a fairly noteworthy figure for a team who struggled to create last term.
Their non-pen xG figure in 2024-25 was 50.26, better than that of only eight teams, and three of those were relegated. If we then extrapolate their 11.69 non-pen xG over the rest of 2025-26, they’d end the season with 63.46; that would’ve been bettered by only three teams last term.
The issue United have is they’re still not doing a great job of converting the chances they do create. Their 11.69 non-pen xG has yielded just eight goals, giving them the second-greatest underperformance (-3.69) in the Premier League this term after Crystal Palace (-4.15).
Premier League xG underperformance
There have been no such issues for Tottenham, though. Thomas Frank’s side have been the most clinical side in that respect this term. Their 13 goals excluding penalties is far higher than their 7.53 non-pen xG, with their 5.47 overperformance almost twice that of any other club (Man City – 2.79).
That’s explained by two of their last three coming from outside the area, benefiting from an own goal against Brighton, and some exceptional finishes, such Richarlison’s double against Burnley in August.
Frank has previously been seen as an advocate of xG, saying in 2022 that Brentford were “a big believer in making the chance bigger”, though Tottenham’s average shot value of 0.098 xG is only the 12th best in the Premier League this term. We’re certainly intrigued to see how Spurs’ output develops from here.
There’s the other side of the coin, too, of course. When it comes to xG against (xGA), it probably won’t come as a huge surprise to learn Burnley’s shots conceded have generated the most xG (12.08), and then come West Ham (10.55) – also not that shocking.
But with 10.06 xGA, Man Utd have conceded the third-best chances in the Premier League – so, they’re hardly ‘fixed’ yet.
Nevertheless, when we look at the xG-powered expected points table – which uses xG data to assess how each game ‘should’ have finished based on the quality of chances each team created – United climb from their actual position in 10th (10 points) to fourth, averaging 12.5 points across the simulations. Evidence then that they are moving in the right direction?
Premier League expected points 2025-26
One team there seems little doubt about at the moment is Arsenal. While they may only have a one-point lead at the summit in reality, there’s been an efficiency to them that no other team have really shown this term.
Although their 16 points is 1.5 more than they averaged in the simulations, the gap to second is still greater than it is in real life.
There’s lots more to glean from the expected points table, too. Spurs are certainly outliers, while Liverpool have seemingly defied the xG gods somewhat. And, like Man Utd, Newcastle may feel their performances this season haven’t been justly rewarded.
So, there you have it. Haaland’s still out of this world, Semenyo’s sizzling and Man Utd are creating chances like a top-four team… just not finishing like one. As ever, the numbers don’t tell you everything, but they do tell you a lot — especially when goals and assists only scratch the surface.
For now, we close The xG Files again, but remain vigilant. When you think there’s more than meets the eye, you know where to find us.
Premier League Stats Opta
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