Daniel Gafford is the recent recipient of a three-year, $54 million contract extension, which kicks in for the 2026-27 season and keeps him paid through 2028-29. He’s unfortunately also the even more recent recipient of an ankle injury, which he suffered on the first day of Dallas Mavericks training camp on Sept. 30 in Vancouver, BC.
Gafford’s timetable for return initially put into question his availability for the team’s first game on Oct. 22 against the San Antonio Spurs, so it shouldn’t affect the team’s rotations long term. If Gafford misses one or two games on the front end of the regular season, Dereck Lively II should be able to absorb most of the additional minutes and the flexibility afforded by the glut of big men on this roster should be able to handle the rest.
You may not even miss Gafford that much while he works his way back on the inevitable escalating minutes restrictions that follow his recovery. If that’s the case, the biggest looming question regarding Gafford’s outlook for the upcoming season becomes an obvious one.
Big question
Will Gafford finish the 2025-26 season in a Mavericks uniform? The team is obviously stacked with big men as well as others who can stretch into a small-ball five role. Gafford finds himself firmly behind Lively in the pecking order for the starting five.
His new deal puts him under team control at a relatively team-friendly $18 million per year for the three seasons following the upcoming year. He’ll make just north of $14 million this season. Gafford will no doubt be a rumored tradeable asset once again as the 2026 NBA trade deadline approaches.
With the glut of big bodies on the Mavs’ roster and a backcourt that could need help, it remains to be seen if Gafford’s value is best used as a trade piece or as insurance against the likely event of an injury to either Lively or Anthony Davis.
You know what you’re getting with Gafford. He’s tough, he holds his own on the defensive end and is somewhat limited on the offensive end. He’s a really good finisher and a capable rim protector. Gafford isn’t going to suddenly wow you in Year 7 by adding a significant new skill to his bag of tricks, but he represents the dependable depth that gives the Dallas frontcourt a great deal of flexibility.
Best-case scenario
Gafford’s ideal 2025-26 season largely depends on what happens around him on this Mavericks roster. If everyone remains relatively healthy and things work out with the backcourt led by D’Angelo Russell, Gafford could help lead one of the best second units in the NBA all season long. If the three-headed beast of Lively, Gafford and Davis can each play somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 games with two of the three of them on the floor for the majority of those games, he becomes a key piece in the Mavs turning heads with their defense. A 12-point, eight-rebound-per-game type of season would be quite valuable.
If either Lively or Davis misses significant time this year, Gafford’s best-case scenario shifts with the added responsibility he’ll take on. His production, offensive efficiency and defensive toughness go from luxury to necessity. If Russell isn’t able to effectively bridge the gap at point guard until Kyrie Irving returns from his ACL tear or if Irving has some sort of setback in his recovery that deepens the team’s need at one of the guard positions, then Gafford’s best-case for what he can do for his current team may mean he finishes the 2025-26 season playing elsewhere.
Worst-case scenario
The worst case for Gafford happens if there simply are not enough minutes to go around. He just signed a new deal. If, for certain stretches, he becomes the odd man out in head coach Jason Kidd’s rotations, which will certainly be in flux to start the year, the possibility for petty pouting comes into play. Gafford’s second full season with the Mavs could also be the second straight year he is rumored to be on the trading block at one point or another.
Dallas doesn’t need any of that. There are too many other dangling “if-then” scenarios for Kidd to manage, as the Mavs’ front office has convinced itself that the team is set up to win on two timelines.
Season goal
Gafford mentioned becoming more vocal this season in his Mavericks Media Day interview. He’s much more than a cheerleader or a locker room presence, of course, but establishing himself as that kind of leader on this roster will go a long way to staving off any potential dissatisfaction with his role, should the minutes not turn out to be in his favor at any point this season.
Gafford’s place in the 2025-26 lineup has shifted significantly from what he meant to the team that brought him to Dallas in the middle of the 2023-24 campaign. He doesn’t fill the same hole he was brought here to plug in that roster. His presence can still be additive, though.
Circumstances outside his control will hold a great deal of sway in Gafford’s level of contribution to winning basketball in Dallas this season. He’s saying all the right things. Will his play keep him here for the medium or the long term? Or will it make him more attractive to another team come the trade deadline?
All outcomes are in play.