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The Ringer’s 2025-26 NBA Awards Predictions

NBANBAWill Jokic, Shai, or Luka win MVP? And will anyone challenge Cooper Flagg for Rookie of the Year? Our staff makes their official preseason picks.

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By The Ringer StaffOct. 16, 3:31 pm UTC• 19 min

Get your popcorn ready. The NBA season is almost upon us. Players have beenranked, teams have beentiered, and over/unders have beenprojected. Now, it’s time for some predictions. The Ringer NBA staff has assembled to forecast which players will take home the hardware for the 2025-26 season. Here are our picks.

Most Valuable Player

Danny Chau: Nikola Jokic. With offseason reinforcements both novel and familiar, this might just be the best Denver Nuggets roster of the Jokic era. There are more release valves in the rotation than ever. And with one of the greatest passers in history still at the peak of his powers, Denver could reach historic heights on offense if the team, long one of the least prolific in perimeter shooting, hews closer to league average in 3-point attempt rate. If Denver can keep pace with Oklahoma City in the standings, it’ll be hard not to reward Jokic with a fourth MVP trophy—placing him in the rarefied company of LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, and Bill Russell.

Howard Beck: Jokic. Somewhere in the multiverse, Jokic is vying for an NBA-record sixth straight MVP trophy, perhaps while simultaneously saving humanity from Thanos. In our universe, he’s merely won three of the past five (and placed second the other two years), his theoretical half-decade streak thwarted by historic runs from Joel Embiid (2023) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2025). Jokic’s play never falters, but his MVP case sags in years when his team is merely good instead of dominant. That should change this season, now that the Nuggets have dramatically upgraded the roster and are looking like a serious threat to make the Finals again.

Michael Pina: Jokic has been more than qualified to win this award five years in a row, is still getting better, and finally has the frontcourt depth and outside shooting that’s worthy of his profound impact. Denver’s improved bench may dim Jokic’s on-off metrics, but his breathtaking individual stats, consistent ability to make everyone around him better, and all-around efficiency will still pop on a team that should finish in the top three in the West and flirt with 60 wins.

Justin Verrier: Luka Doncic. This pick will be right at some point, and this season offers perhaps the best mix of motivation and personal narrative to date. Luka looks lean, locked in, and full of bloodlust, and LeBron James’s prolonged absence to start the season will clear up any confusion about who’s driving the Lakers’ results. Racking up wins will be tough in the West, but a 34-point triple-double average and a top-three finish in the conference are in play if he can stay healthy.

Logan Murdock: Victor Wembanyama. I didn’t consume months’ worth of content about Wemby’s pilgrimage to China, his workouts with Hakeem Olajuwon, and his peak physical condition NOT to pick him to win MVP. But let me give you some more reasons. Last year, he took an undermanned Spurs roster to the brink of a play-in berth and averaged career highs in points and rebounds before a blood clot ended his season in February. At 21 years old, his early-career numbers already stack up with those of LeBron, Jordan, and Kareem, giving even more reason to believe that Wemby’s third season could be a career year. What did Bron do in his third season? Oh yeah, he carried the Cavs to their first postseason berth in eight years. How about MJ in his third campaign? He finished second in MVP voting after averaging 37.1 per game. And what about Kareem, the player Wemby is frequently compared to? He averaged 34 and 14 and captured his second MVP. The door is open for the Anointed One™️ to step into immortality early on in his impressive career; now it’s time to walk through it.

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The Ringer’s NBA Top 100

The Ringer’s NBA Top 100

Tyler Parker: Jokic. My final four, in no particular order: Jokic, SGA, Giannis, Luka. [*Caveats, caveats, mathematics, caveats, other things that show I thought about this from angles.*] SGA won MVP last year; then he went and got a ring and a Finals MVP. He also carried OKC to 68 wins. I think that for him to have any shot at repeating, the Thunder have to get to 70. Is it possible? Yes; they have the horses. Is it likely? I mean, they’re loaded. The problem is that the West is especially messy this season, even more than last year. Giannis will be otherworldly this season because Giannis will be angry this season. One of the best things about angry Giannis is that he gets things done. With the Bucks waiving Damian Lillard, even more of the offense is on Antetokounmpo’s shoulders. The numbers will be bonkers. Feels like he could throw up a 50-plus-point, 25-plus-rebound night. He gets three cracks at the Nets and two at the Jazz. It could happen. And then there’s Big Honey. As is known, the lightning is coming. It is unforgiving and inevitable. Jokic is the best offensive player in the league, a genuine riddle, the premier problem-solver in the NBA. He spreads the wealth and passes the gravy. In practically every game he plays, he’s the sun. If he’s on the floor, the game orbits around him.

Matt Dollinger: Gilgeous-Alexander. If the Nuggets struggle at all or Jokic takes greater measures to pace himself (hello, Jonas Valanciunas), this award isn’t leaving Oklahoma City. This feels like a two-man race unless the Spurs win 50 games and Wembanyama unlocks the 36 chambers. Everything is set up for Oklahoma City to win 65-plus games again and for Gilgeous-Alexander to chase Heat LeBron levels of efficiency. Will he lead the league in scoring again? Or will he look to diversify his stat line in other ways? Chances are that his MVP case will be as solid as an Isaiah Hartenstein screen. Maybe we show the reigning MVP, smack-dab in the middle of his prime, coming off a title and Finals MVP, surrounded by a loaded cast of teammates, just a little respect? If someone doesn’t go above and beyond to seize the award, this could turn into a Steve Nash’s second MVP type of season.

Isaac Levy-Rubinett: Jokic. Two-thirds of the NBA’s general managers (and the majority of our trusted Ringer experts) picked Jokic to win this award, and I’m inclined to agree with them. The Joker averaged 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists last season—those are Looney Tunes numbers!—and his team appears poised to stack up more wins this time around. Last year belonged to OKC and SGA, but I think that Jokic will reassert his control over the definition of “valuable” in 2025-26.

Most Improved Player

Parker: Amen Thompson. Calling Thompson athletic is like calling the ocean big. It’s like Roscoe told Ed Tom, “That don’t hardly say it.” Thompson does not listen to gravity. He was incredible last year, but with another year of development under his belt and more on-ball opportunities in the wake of Fred VanVleet’s injury, he’ll have more say over the offense and will get a chance to flex more of his playmaking chops. The Kevin Durant addition should loosen things up for Thompson in a way that he has yet to experience in his NBA career. Defenses will be so concerned with Alperen Sengun and KD that Thompson’s runway should be roomier than ever. (Honorable mention to Shaedon Sharpe and Matas Buzelis.)

Beck: Deni Avdija. Am I overreacting to a late-season breakout, by a player putting up gaudy stats in low-leverage games, for a team going nowhere? Perhaps! But it’s also possible that Avdija, at age 24 and in his fifth season—and his first freed from the purgatory of the Wizards—just needed time (and the right team) to harness the skills that made him a lottery pick. About that late-season surge: He averaged 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists in his final 20 games, with a true shooting percentage of .640. The Blazers still have a lot to sort out, including determining which of their ball-dominant youngsters should serve as the offensive hub. Avdija just might claim the role.

Murdock: Trae Young. The addition of Kristaps Porzingis and a weak Eastern Conference have provided new life for Young, who for years has scored in bunches but has fought trade rumors, valid coach-killing accusations, and the constant perception that players don’t like playing with him. He’s doing a lot of legacy protecting lately (he did not need to scorch Pat Bev like that, sheesh), but the best way to change perception is galvanizing play. The ball is in Trae’s court, and it’s time to live up to the promise bestowed on him.

Levy-Rubinett: LaMelo Ball. [*Voice-over voice.*] In a desolate Eastern Conference landscape, ravaged by injury and team-building incompetence, can one man harness his better angels and carry his team on the adventure of a lifetime?

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After five seasons of electric yet unserious basketball, LaMelo’s NBA reputation is on the brink. His name crops up regularly in trade rumors, he’ll be extension eligible next summer, and the Hornets have rather inexplicably brought in a cadre of ball-dominant guards to play with—or instead of?—him. It could be now or never for LaMelo in Charlotte. So why not now? If the younger Ball recalibrates his game—more steady offense, fewer pull-up 35-footers—there’s no reason his talent can’t pop next to Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel. And while this award historically rewards breakout statistical seasons, the kind of improvement LaMelo needs to show is arguably even more difficult—and more important.

Pina: Chet Holmgren. Let’s go with Oklahoma City’s third-year big man, who begins the season healthy, supremely confident, and ridiculously versatile as a rim protector for the Thunder, who should spend the regular season finding new and different ways to open up his offensive game.

Verrier: Avdija. The leap was already in motion last season, when Avdija’s monster-truck drives, high-level feel, and intuitive defense helped propel Portland to one of the more impressive second halves in the league. Now, after swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday and with Scoot Henderson on the shelf, the Trail Blazers will need to lean on Avidja even more to provide any sort of offense to complement what should be an elite defensive unit.

Chau: Bennedict Mathurin. In 12 of the past 20 seasons, the MIP award recipient averaged at least 20 points per game. Since 2020, the league’s Most Improved Player has averaged 23.5 points per game—a figure dragged down by Dyson Daniels’s relatively paltry per-game average of 14.1 last season. The runway is clear for Mathurin, who will see his usage spike in an obvious gap year for the Pacers as they play without franchise star Tyrese Haliburton. Mathurin averaged 22 points in the 15 games last season wherein he logged at least 36 minutes. Victor Oladipo won the award in 2018 in his first year with Indiana; if Mathurin has a similar leap in him, he’ll undoubtedly be among the finalists.

Dollinger: Someone on the Pacers. My gut says that the Most Improved Player award is headed to Indiana in Haliburton’s absence; the only question is whether it will go to Mathurin (see above from the legendary Danny Chau) or the other guard set to take on more: Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard is a comedian’s comedian, a high-level two-way player who can literally do just about anything on the court. The question is: What do you ask him to do? Last postseason, he made his name by hounding the best guards in the NBA while making clutch shots on the other end and facilitating as a secondary playmaker. This year, without Haliburton, he’ll be in the spotlight as the Pacers’ lead playmaker, running the offense and calling his number possibly more than he has since high school. If Nembhard buoys the Pacers on a nightly basis and makes a statistical leap, he’ll be in the running.

Zach Lowe’s NBA Season Previews

Zach Lowe’s NBA Season Previews

Defensive Player of the Year

Verrier: Wembanyama. They should start making a miniature second-place trophy just to make this interesting over the next decade. Wemby led the league in blocks his first two seasons, with a shade under four a game, while surrounded by mostly young and placeholder veteran teammates. We could be in early-career Mark Eaton territory this season.

Beck: Wembanyama. He will probably end up a unanimous preseason choice, and he should be. No other player can cover as much ground, or affect as many shots, or do it all with such consistent effort and glee. It’s a damn-near certainty that no one else will block as many shots (he averaged 3.8 last season). Two caveats: We can’t summarily dismiss the field at a time when there are so many elite defenders, from Amen and Ausar Thompson to Lu Dort to Dyson Daniels to Evan Mobley. Also, it matters (to me, at least) where the Spurs ultimately rank defensively. As with MVP, the DPOY should come from a team that truly matters.

Chau: Wemby, and you know it’s Wemby.

Murdock: Wemby, the man who was on track to win the award last season before his health scare (and he probably still should’ve won it, if not for the NBA’s 65-game rule, but I digress). He has all the physical tools, stats, and supporting cast to be able to get this done. This is Wemby’s award to lose.

Levy-Rubinett: Wembanyama. Where would you set the over/under line for career DPOYs for Wemby? At 4.5?

Parker: Wembanyama. Let’s! Get! Boring! Frenchie’s a walking eclipse. The only way he won’t win it is if he doesn’t play enough games. (This will probably be true for the rest of his career?) Amen Thompson deserves to be mentioned here, too, as do Daniels, Holmgren, Dort, Ivica Zubac, Draymond Green, and Rudy Gobert. Those last two are listed back-to-back because they always have so much fun together. I did not know love until I watched them. You can’t get one away from the other. They are obsessed, deeply connected. You see Draymond put Rudy in a headlock and call it an act of aggression? I see love disguised as hate—a bond that will never be broken.

Dollinger: Wembanyama. He already had a triple-double and 10 blocks last season. This year, maybe we’ll get the NBA’s first quadruple-double in three decades. We’ll see Prime Deion levels of respect this season; opponents won’t even pass the ball to his side of the court.

Pina: Um, Wembanyama.

Bill Simmons’s NBA Over/Unders

Bill Simmons’s NBA Over/Unders

Sixth Man of the Year

Beck: Chris Paul. Yes, he’s old (40). No, he doesn’t put up the stats of a typical 6MOY winner. But CP3 could put together a compelling case as the undisputed second-unit captain of a (likely) 50-win team. He’s still one of the best playmakers and leaders in the game, and he can still score when needed. Plus, he’ll continue to be a defensive pest and a plus-minus darling, offsetting his modest box-score stats. If he pulls it off, Paul would become the oldest 6MOY in history, passing former Clipper Jamal Crawford (36 in 2016). It would also serve as a cool final flourish to a Hall of Fame career.

Pina: John Collins. Collins will be a monster this year, playing off James Harden and Paul, catching lobs and firing up wide-open corner 3s. Depending on how many minutes he sees on the league’s deepest team, there’s a decent chance that Collins will lead all sixth men in double-doubles and have one of the highest true shooting marks in the league.

Parker: Ty Jerome. Jerome was a destroyer for the Cavs off the bench last season. He became fully realized for the first time in his career, with everything working: the shot, the handle, the passing. He’s since switched addresses, signing with Memphis as a free agent this past offseason. The Grizz are entering their post–Desmond Bane period after trading the flamethrower to the Magic in June. They need someone who can replicate Bane’s shooting or at least do a decent impression. Enter Jerome. He can play either guard position, with or without Ja Morant, and keep the floor spread and the lane less busy for Morant’s booming acrobatics and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s forays to the rim. He also gives them an added ball handler that they can turn to in the ever-crushing West, which is full of big-time defenders. Bane had developed some playmaking chops in recent years. Jerome is one of the best passers in the league. A table setter who makes sure everyone eats.

Chau: Naz Reid. It’s always wise to follow the money. Reid’s new five-year, $125 million contract with the Wolves suggests a long-term vision for one of the more versatile bigs in the game, even if his path to the starting five is still impeded by incumbents. But that only makes his sixth-man case stronger. Gobert only narrowly edged out Reid in minutes per game during the playoffs last season, and that could be a trend that continues into 2025-26 as Minnesota manages Gobert’s minutes in his 13th season. There simply aren’t many players in the league who combine Reid’s strength, length, mobility, volume 3-point shooting, and capacity to scale up his role in a pinch. He has a real shot at his second trophy in three seasons; only five other players in history have won the award multiple times.

Dollinger: Josh Hart. If New York can stay healthy enough to allow Hart to come off the bench, he’ll be a next-level spark plug. Few guys play with as much energy, hustle, and heart (sorry) as Hart. (Just to be clear, I’m still sorry for that pun.) His demeanor and versatility on both ends make him an ideal plug-and-play sixth man, able to slot in just about anywhere. He’ll crash the boards with even more fervor if he isn’t playing 87 minutes every night, too. Averaging a double-double off the bench is on the table here. Hart could become even more of a New York folk hero if he’s the leader of its bench mob.

Levy-Rubinett: Reid. Armed with a new deal, the subject of Minnesota’s most popular tattoo is primed to win this award for the second time. Reid is a dynamic talent who’s still getting better; he posted career highs in points, minutes, rebounds, and assists in 2024-25, and he’s just 26 years old. Even more crucially, the Wolves have promoted Reid from a luxury to a necessity. With KAT in New York, Reid is the skeleton key that unlocks Minnesota’s lineup versatility. He’ll play big minutes with both Gobert and Julius Randle, and his stretch and off-the-dribble juice represent the Wolves’ only real path to playing a five-out style. This kind of talent, plus this kind of role on this kind of team, sets up a compelling 6MOY case.

Verrier: Simons. This is an absurd honor that typically rewards scoring points against lesser competition, but that sounds right up Simons’s alley! The longtime Blazer is a truly dreadful defender, but few players can heat up and score in bunches like this Dame disciple. In the Celtics’ 3-happy offense, with little competition for shots on the second unit, Ant will likely take more than 10 3s a game and hit a personal high in scoring.

Murdock: Keldon Johnson. I’m going deep here. But with Payton Pritchard expected to be thrust into Boston’s starting lineup and Malik Beasley out of the league, Johnson could make a run at this award. Last season, averaged 12.7 points and 4.8 rebounds in 77 games.

Rookie of the Year

Verrier: Cooper Flagg. They already have him starting at point guard in the preseason! If the highlights alone don’t convince you, check out the diversity of thrilling plays he manages to cram into one clip. In this one, from a recent warm-up game against the Hornets, he pulls up for a picture-perfect 3 out of a pick-and-roll, catches a lob dunk, and puts it behind the back and drills a step-back jumper in the lane. If you’re counting at home, that’s all three levels of scoring. Add in that the Mavs are talented enough to give Flagg’s results real stakes, and this is pretty much a wrap.

Chau: Flagg. He’ll still be 18 for another two months, which means that there will undoubtedly be some growing pains during his rookie season. He’s being given a trial by fire as one of the Mavericks’ de facto initiators, and teams will really challenge his ability to process the floor when he has the ball in his hands and is under duress. But no other rookie will have as many opportunities as Flagg to produce, and the award has historically come down to exactly that. In the past 25 seasons, there have been only three ROY winners with usage rates below 20 percent. Given all the expectations, Flagg ought to clear that figure with room to spare.

Murdock: Flagg. No matter how good or (probably) bad the Mavericks will be, Cooper will get a lot of touches and thus opportunities to score. He was the most ready-made player in the draft, which will do a lot in the quest to win this award.

Parker: Flagg. I’m very interested in Tre Johnson, and if I had a spine, I’d pick him. Unfortunately, it’s all jelly back there. I fall a lot. If I thought V.J. Edgecombe would get enough touches, I’d be tempted to zag and pick him. But between Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Jared McCain, I’m not sure how many shots will be available for a rookie in his position. I didn’t even mention Kelly Oubre, who will be firing. I didn’t mention Eric Gordon, who will be firing. I didn’t mention Quentin Grimes, who will also (sometimes) be firing. Flagg will get shots. He’s the star of the show down there. He has the most complete offensive repertoire of anyone in his class and a team that has shown a lot of interest in getting him the ball. This is a recipe for numbers.

Beck: Flagg. I really wanted to zag here, but this is just one of those years when any other pick seems almost ludicrous. This isn’t a knock on the other top rookies. It’s just that Flagg has such an advanced feel for the game, as both a scorer and playmaker, along with a palpable defensive tenacity and versatility. He’ll be a critical player for Dallas on day one and could be the difference in the Mavs making or missing the playoffs.

Levy-Rubinett: Flagg. Ace Bailey’s preseason debut made me think about changing my mind, but I’ll go with Flagg. Most highly drafted rookies who step into big minutes have to toil in losing situations, but Flagg should play plenty of meaningful basketball in Dallas. And he will have an opportunity to showcase the breadth of his game on a pretty bizarre Mavs roster. I’m particularly interested in seeing how Flagg fares as a ball handler in jumbo lineups with Anthony Davis and a center.

Dollinger: Flagg. I can feel the preseason hype in my knees. If you think that Flagg looks good now, wait until LeBron starts mentoring him after forcing a Lakers buyout and joining Dallas midseason. (I figured I’d say something crazy just to see whether you’re still reading.)

Pina: Um, Flagg.

Group Chat’s Preseason Power Rankings

Group Chat’s Preseason Power Rankings

Coach of the Year

Pina: Erik Spoelstra. Finally! This is the year! With low expectations and an awkward (albeit resourceful) roster that needs to be molded the right way, Spo will help lead Miami to a top-six seed, squeezing everything he can from a group that will open the season without Tyler Herro, its lone All-Star from 2024-25.

Beck: Tyronn Lue. After Spoelstra, he might be the best coach never to win the honor. And he could have a great case this season. The Clippers are already being dismissed because of their age (read: ancient) and the specter of an NBA investigation into reported cap circumvention. But they’ve put together back-to-back 50-win seasons and should hit that mark again after adding Paul, Collins, Brook Lopez, and Bradley Beal. If they do, Lue will get credit for holding this geriatric bunch together and keeping the off-court distractions at bay.

Parker: Rick Carlisle. I think that David Adelman and Mike Brown are interesting names here, but my mind keeps returning to Carlisle. It’s because he’s so hot. Seems Carlisle is roundly considered something of a coaching chameleon and warlock who will take whatever ingredients he’s given and maximize them. With Haliburton set to miss the entire year and Myles Turner in Milwaukee, people are understandably not as high on the Pacers this year as they were heading into Game 7 of the Finals. This does not mean they won’t still be a hard-scrapping, speedrunning, deliriously competitive group. Well prepared, too, with firepower that showed some stuff in big moments last postseason. They will continue to make things an endlessly mutating hell for their opponents. I suppose there’s always a chance that injuries will happen and they’ll wind up dabbling in some light tankage, but if they’re healthy, they will be a pain in the ass.

Chau: Quin Snyder. His eight-year stint in Utah was a master class in maximizing regular-season wins—he had a .622 win percentage across his last six years with the Jazz. And this Hawks roster is by far the most talented and well rounded he’s coached since his ouster in Salt Lake City. Atlanta’s win-total odds are set at 47.5 wins. The Jazz made a massive 11-win leap in Snyder’s third season with the team, officially installing Utah as a top-five team out West for more than half a decade. The Hawks, entering Snyder’s third full season with the team, are set up for a similar breakthrough.

Verrier: Snyder. The Hawks, after a banner offseason, are expected to rejoin respectable basketball society and compete for something other than a high play-in seed. If they do, Young’s embrace of activating a deep bench of long athletes, rather than impressing himself with how deep he can fire up misses, will deserve a lot of credit—but Snyder will also earn his flowers for being the first coach in history to get the notoriously cranky point guard to buy into his best role.

Dollinger: Joe Mazzulla. I’m not going to lie, this convinced me. I think that Jayson Tatum’s injury has somehow made Mazzulla want to win even more. He’s doubling down. I just don’t buy that this is a gap year in Boston, whether Tatum comes back or not. Mazzulla will push like hell, the Celtics will somehow win 48 games, and it’ll be hard to name three coaches who did more for their team than this guy.

Levy-Rubinett: Jamahl Mosley. Does any coach have a wider range of outcomes this season than Mosely? If things break right for the Magic, he’s an obvious candidate for this award. If things don’t … he’s likely to be out of a job. Orlando paid a premium for Bane over the summer, and it’s easy to see why. His motor will fit right in with the franchise’s overall ethos, and his movement shooting should be the key that unlocks the above-average offense in Orlando for the first time in 13 years. The Magic enter 2025-26 with serious expectations and a clear path to contention. It’s on Mosely to make it happen, and I’m betting that he will.

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