The San Francisco 49ers have an offensive weapon that few teams in the NFL can deploy. Through six weeks, they are taking advantage of his skill set. Christian McCaffrey has played 85.5 percent of the snaps for the offense this year.
McCaffrey has been on the field for 56 more snaps than the next closest running back. It’s McCaffrey’s second-most snap share (356) in the first six weeks of his career. The first was in 2019, when he had 370.
McCaffrey has also racked up 31 more opportunities than any other player in the NFL. So it’s no surprise that the player with the highest volume in the NFL leads the league in missed tackles forced, yards after the catch, and receiving yards after contact. McCaffrey also has the 10th most first downs as a receiver.
As a receiver, McCaffrey has been as effective as anybody in the NFL. Sheer volume helps. The only players targeted more than McCaffrey are Chris Olave and Puka Nacua. McCaffrey has five fewer years than Justin Jefferson. The difference between the two? One averages a target at 12 yards, while the other is about two yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Kyle Shanahan has been forced to evolve into a pass-first team, despite missing his starting quarterback, WR1, and Hall of Fame tight end for multiple games. This is where Shanahan’s genius shows up. San Francisco is sixth in yards per drive without three of its best players in the lineup, without the threat of a running game.
Where McCaffrey and the 49ers have fallen flat on their face is on the ground. The 49ers are 29th in the NFL in schedule-adjusted efficiency on the ground. As a team, they have the fourth-highest stuff rate and the eighth-lowest rushing success rate -- both suboptimal.
Missed blocks by all parties involved, the offensive line simply being overwhelmed at the point of attack, and not having the likes of Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk to pave the way for McCaffrey are all the reasons why McCaffrey is currently 20th in the NFL in rushing yards, just two yards ahead of David Montgomery, who has 43 fewer carries than CMC.
If we’re playing the blame game and attempting to attribute who is responsible for what, how much of McCaffrey’s lack of speed can be blamed on the running game’s lack of explosiveness? After all, McCaffrey is 32nd in the NFL with only six rushes of 10+ yards.
McCaffrey has yet to reach 20 miles per hour this season on the GPS. He’s topped 15 MPH 11 times, but that’s not the bar for speed. For reference, 30-year-old Alvin Kamara, who has never been confused for a speed demon, has 13 rushes of at least 15 MPH.
We want to see numbers in the 20s. McCaffrey had two carries in 2023 of at least 20 miles per hour. He had one in 2022, and previously seven in his career with the Carolina Panthers. It wasn’t realistic to expect McCaffrey to top 20 MPH last year, coming off a serious lower-body injury.
However, offseason quotes from John Lynch saying that McCaffrey was as fast as he’s always been led fans to think the former All-Pro hadn’t lost a step. Next Gen Stats data says otherwise. McCaffrey’s top speed as a ball carrier this year was 17.3 mph. That would be the slowest top speed in any season in his career.
The counter to that will be, “Well, he doesn’t have any room, how do you expect him to reach top speed?”
There’s also a way to measure McCaffrey’s burst. In 2023, his average speed at the line was the sixth-fastest among all running backs at 10.53 miles per hour. This year, McCaffrey’s average speed at the line of scrimmage is 9.41 mph, which is the 14th-slowest among running backs with 40+ carries. It’s also McCaffrey’s slowest by 0.28 mph in any season since 2018.
Does McCaffrey remain one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL because of his ability to bounce off tacklers, make people miss in the open field, and maximize yardage whenever the ball is in his hands? Undoubtedly. But the GPS times are noticeably slower than in years past. That doesn’t make McCaffrey a bad player, but we can put to bed the two-to-three-month debate about whether he’s lost a step or not.
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