For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 7 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
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Steelers (-5.5) at Bengals: Let me first start off by saying that I'm 13-24 on my spread picks this year. I suck. But, there's value in that! Pick against whatever I say, lol.
Having said that, I like the Bengals (+5.5). They have been a complete mess this season, but Joe Flacco will at least give them some floor competency, like he did against Green Bay last week. And as I've been saying all season long, the Steelers simply aren't going to score many points this season. They don't have a good rushing attack, and Aaron Rodgers won't throw the ball down the field, so their big play potential is going to be very limited. They're not going to blow teams out. They're going to score like 20-24 points each week.
Add in that it's a short week road Thursday game for the Steelers, and 5.5 points feels like a lot to give up. I'll take Pittsburgh to win, but give me the points.
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Rams (-2.5) at Jaguars: The Jaguars have been a fun story so far this season, but like the Seahawks last week, the Rams are simply a much better team. I like the Rams' defensive line's chances of forcing Trevor Lawrence into bad decisions.
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Eagles (-1.5) at Vikings: Ugh. I'm uncomfortable putting any faith in the Eagles right now, but if we're looking at these two teams objectively the Eagles have played better than the Vikings so far this season, even if way below expectations. The Eagles are an ugly 4-2. The Vikings are an even uglier 3-2.
The Vikings have a good roster, complete with their share of star players, most notably Justin Jefferson, and a defense that is getting healthier. They also have a good coaching staff, with Kevin O'Connell running the offense, and Brian Flores creating havoc on defense. They are a legitimately capable opponent.
However, it's hard to get past that they will be quarterbacked either by J.J. McCarthy, who has played one good quarter this season and seven bad ones; or the perpetually inconsistent Carson Wentz.
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Raiders at Chiefs (-11.5): The Chiefs have actually lost two of their last five games against the Raiders at Arrowhead, and two of their wins during that span were by a combined total of three points. But, after a slow start to the season, the Chiefs are healthy now and seem to have gotten their act together. This is an obvious survivor pool pick this week, but we'll get to that in a moment.
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Dolphins at Browns (-2.5): This game is only interesting in that the loser might think, "Ew, we lost to that team? Time to sell."
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Patriots (-7) at Titans: It's weird to think of the Patriots as a plucky up and coming team given their recent dynasty*, but Drake Maye feels like a future top five type of quarterback, and the Pats are looking like serious playoff contenders.
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Saints at Bears (-5.5): The Bears' next four games are against teams with a combined record of 7-18. I bet they'll lose at least two of those games, but I think they'll survive the Saints.
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Panthers (-1) at Jets: I don't like that the Panthers are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, but as noted in our Hierarchy this week, the Panthers lead the NFL in rushing yardage differential (rushing yards minus rushing yards allowed). I like this matchup for them against a team that had -10 passing yards last week.
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Colts at Chargers (-2): The Colts have looked like the most complete team in the NFL this season. At what point do we just acknowledge that they're good and stop waiting for them not to be good? I'll gladly take them, with points.
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Giants at Broncos (-7): The Giants were smelling themselves an awful lot all week after their best win in a long time. They'll be reminded by the Broncos' pass rush on Sunday that they're 2-4 for a reason.
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Commanders (-1.5) at Cowboys: This is a "great timing" matchup between a pair of teams coming off really bad losses. Both the Commanders and Cowboys can score points, but they both also have major holes on defense. This could be a fun shootout.
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Packers (-6.5) at Cardinals: The Cardinals are on the brink of a disastrous season after losing four straight, and that was while playing one of the softest schedules in the NFL. We shouldn't expect different results against better opponents like the Packers.
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Falcons at 49ers (-2.5): I don't like this Falcons team even a little bit, but it's hard to ignore how injury-devastated the Niners are on both sides of the ball.
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Buccaneers at Lions (-5.5): Yes, the Lions are very good, but I just don't understand oddsmakers' distrust of this Buccaneers team that is very talented and fights like hell every week. Betting markets have the Bucs as the 12th best team in the NFL right now, which, I mean... 🤯. Give me the Bucs to win on the road, outright.
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Texans at Seahawks (-3): I really like this Seahawks team, but the Texans have outscored their last two opponents 70-10 after starting 0-3. I'm not touching a Texans game until I get a better handle on what they are.
BYE: Bills, Ravens.
Survivor pick ☠️
This week, it's between the Chiefs (playing the Raiders at home) and Broncos (playing the Giants at home). What I factored in here was a look-ahead at each of their schedules. The Chiefs' next four opponents after the Raiders are the Commanders, Bills, Broncos, and Colts. I'm not likely going to want to take the Chiefs against any of those teams in a survivor pool.
The Broncos' next three opponents are the Cowboys, Texans, and Raiders. Using them against the Cowboys or especially the Raiders is a possibility.
The Chiefs are the better pick this week, because the Broncos have more favorable matchups upcoming.
If you've already used the Chiefs (maybe Week 3 at the Giants?), then the Patriots or Bears would also make some sense, but they're too risky for me at this point. The Chiefs are the easy chalk pick Week 7.
Week 1: Eagles ✅
Week 2: Ravens ✅
Week 3: Bills ✅
Week 4: Broncos ✅
Week 5: Lions ✅
Week 6: Packers ✅
Week 7: Chiefs
• Picks against the spread: Bengals (+5.5), Rams (-2.5), Panthers (-1), Colts (+2), Commanders (-1.5), Falcons (+2.5), Buccaneers (+5.5).
• Eagles picks: 4-2
• 2025 season, straight up: 55-37-1 (0.597)
• 2025 season, ATS: 13-24 (0.351) 🤢🤮😱
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 465-404-22 (0.534)
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