Most fans agree that the Houston Rockets improved this summer. The Athletic's John Hollinger would beg to differ. He's got the Rockets winning 45 games (subscription needed), 7 fewer than they won in 2024-25.
Reading this piece was a shock to the system. The Rockets got worse? By what metric? In what universe?
Yes, Fred VanVleet's injury has to be accounted for. The Rockets are light on guard play, and that's Hollinger's issue. It undeniably could be a problem:
But after the Kevin Durant trade, it shouldn't have them winning so many fewer games than they did in 2024-25.
The Rockets improved their roster this summer
Granted, we already knew Hollinger was low on the team. This is the same pundit who claimed the Rockets "didn't have any wings" because they had so many 4s in their rotation.
Someone ought to tell him that in 2025, most 4s are wings.
That was before VanVleet's injury. So, give Hollinger this credit: He's consistent. If he was low on the Rockets' roster construction before their starting point guard got hurt, he'd be this low on them now.
He just happens to be wrong.
The bottom line is this: If the Rockets had flipped VanVleet, Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks for Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Clint Capela, that's still a pure talent upgrade. They're acquiring the most productive (Durant) and third most impactful (Finney-Smith) players in the deal.
That said, talent alone doesn't win NBA titles. Roster construction matters.
Could the Rockets' guard depth really cost them seven wins?
Rockets ought to improve their win total
No.
The Rockets will need to get creative. They'll also need to adjust. With Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard splitting point guard duties, they'll look different than they did with VanVleet in the mix.
They're going to turn the ball over more often. They also have a chance to build a more dynamic squad. Without VanVleet, the Rockets should play a higher-risk, higher-reward brand of hoops.
They'll also have to afford Alperen Sengun more playmaking duties. With defenses focusing on Durant, that ought to yield results. The Rockets will need to retool their strategy, but they've got the pieces to make it work.
There are no guarantees in the NBA. If Durant misses significant time, this 45-win projection looks realistic. That doesn't seem to be Hollinger's point. He seems to be asserting that the Rockets are a worse team at full strength, and that's where he's woefully wrong.
Expect most fans to see that clearly.