The upcoming season could be the most interesting, pivotal, and hard to predict that the Boston Celtics have had in a while. The range of possibilities for this team is broad and varied. Everything is on the table from Jayson Tatum returning to lead them to a deep postseason run to a tanking season where most of the starting lineup gets shut down for the last couple of months. On some level the results are largely secondary to the main plot. This is a gap year (even if Tatum miraculously returns) where every focus should be on which pieces fit the roster in 2026-27 and beyond.
Let’s break this down in our usual format:
Last Season’s Results: 61-21 (lost in 2nd round)
Key Losses: Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Luke Kornet
Key Additions: Anfernee Simons, Luka Garza, Chris Boucher, Josh Minott, Hugo González (r), TPE’s and tax relief
1. What significant moves were made during the off-season?
Well, quite a few. The team can push back on the “gap year” terminology all they want, but actions speak louder than words.
There were always going to be changes made to the roster due to the impending penalties of the second apron rules in the new CBA. Once Tatum went down with an Achilles injury, it became even more apparent that a step back was in the cards. So key contributors Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis were moved for salary cutting purposes and free agent big men Al Horford and Luke Kornet found new homes in Golden State and San Antonio.
The Celtics have already saved over $300 million in luxury tax penalties and could duck completely out of the tax with another move during the upcoming season. Of course, that’s an awful lot of talent out the door and, compounded with Tatum’s injury, results in lowered expectations for the team.
The biggest name arriving in Boston as a newcomer is Anfernee Simons (as part of the Jrue Holiday deal). He’s a very talented scorer that should have a large role on the team this season. Of course he’s also a free agent at the end of the year and could be a trade candidate before the deadline.
Beyond that, Brad Stevens looked to round out the roster through the draft (Hugo González) and free agency (Chris Boucher, Luka Garza, and Josh Minott).
How each of those players perform this year will determine a lot how many moves will be made NEXT offseason.
New York Knicks v Boston Celtics
Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?
This team still has high end talent in the starting lineup. Jaylen Brown gets his chance to be the focal point of the offense, Derrick White will need to scale up his usage, Payton Pritchard is always ready for more shots, and newcomer Anfernee Simons looks like he’ll fit in nicely on offense. While the team lost some great shooters, that isn’t going to stop Joe Mazzulla’s team from finding the best shots, which frequently happen to be 3-pointers.
This squad has a more youthful look, which can lead to higher variance in outcomes, but it could also lead to a deeper bench with some intriguing talents and skillsets. Minott and González provide wing athleticism, Garza is a talented offensive big, and both Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh will get opportunities to contribute. Chris Boucher is the elder statesman of the team (32), but he provides bounce and shooting to the bigs rotation.
The coaching staff has emphasized picking up the pace, defending, and rebounding as a team. Which is good because those areas factor into the next section.
3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?
The team has a ginormous Tatum-shaped hole that simply won’t be filled until he returns. He is so pivotal to everything this team does on both sides of the ball — everything from scoring to distributing to rebounding to defending and everything in between. The other departing players (Jrue, KP, Horford, Kornet) take with them their defensive skills and several stretch options.
Mazzulla’s solution seems to be to pick up the pace, putting pressure on opposing defenses with athleticism and shooting. The lack of proven bigs could lead to struggles on the boards and internal defense, which is why Joe is benching guys in preseason for missing rebounding assignments.
This team is going to be hyper-dependent upon the stars and, if any of them miss a significant amount of time, they’ll have to turn to the unproven players to step up.
Boston, MA - July 8: Boston Celtics General Manager Brad Stevens and head coach Joe Mazzulla chat on the side of the court. The Celtics held a media availability and a practice session at the Auerbach Center on July 8, 2025. (Photo by John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Boston, MA - July 8: Boston Celtics General Manager Brad Stevens and head coach Joe Mazzulla chat on the side of the court. The Celtics held a media availability and a practice session at the Auerbach Center on July 8, 2025. (Photo by John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Boston Globe via Getty Images
4. What are the goals for this team?
The team needs to be hyper-focused on the horizon — a growth mentality, encouraging learning through mistakes has to be preached from the top down. It’s process over results, continual progress, and growth at every level. Whatever it takes to set this team up for success when Tatum returns.
Specifically, that means high end performers gain more comfort and experience in larger roles, which should in theory help take some of the load off Tatum once he returns.
Support and role players need to continue refining their craft, providing reliable production in their best skills without taking too much off the table with their limitations.
The front office needs to identify who is going to be here long term, and maximize their returns for anyone that isn’t.
Through it all, I do think it is important to continue a culture of focus on winning and developing good, lasting habits. I’m not in favor of full-on tanking or coasting unless legitimate injuries force the team to focus on development in the last month or two.
On one hand, Brad Stevens should probably look to duck completely out of the tax if only to reset the clock on the repeater penalties. On the other hand, he should also keep an eye out for adding talent as it becomes available, even if it means increasing the payroll and taxes.
Boston Celtics v Orlando Magic - Game Four
Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Conclusion and predictions
I toyed with calling this column “A Box of Chocolates” because really who knows how many wins this team could end up with. It seems unlikely that they’d be amongst the worst in the league (barring injuries) and I tend to think they’ll make the playoffs in a relatively weaker Eastern Conference.
The biggest wildcard is Tatum. When does he come back this season? (It still boggles my mind that we’ve gone from “if” to “when” on that subject already.) Will he be full speed and with no limitations when he returns? Will he look like the old Tatum? Or will this season just be a tune-up for him to be ready for the following year?
It feels like they’ve really found something in both Minott and González, which bodes well for the future. I’m less optimistic on Scheierman and Walsh. The trio of Queta, Boucher, and Garza is a great backup big rotation, but the team needs a starting center.
So I’m predicting that they make a trade around the deadline that probably sheds some salary but also brings back a decent center option (don’t ask me who that is, my crystal ball is hazy at best on this). That might mean dealing Simons (which, as I predicted in the SWAGs, will upset some people by the deadline). Beyond that, I think they’ll save more impactful trades (using the TPE?) for next offseason.
If you forced me to predict the number of wins for this season, I’d guess 40 with an exaggerated shrug. I could see 35, and I could see 47. As I said above, I don’t really think it matters (aside from some draft position impacts). All that really matters are Tatum’s recovery and the way the team develops in his absence.