What does an Evan Mobley MVP season look like? For Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe, that answer was easy. However, the benchmarks the Cleveland Cavaliers star would need to clear were far from that. It would involve a significant uptick in the deliverables.
The pair of NBA analysts wanted to see averages of 24-12 to go with efficient shooting splits around 50-40-80 from Mobley. That would need to be accompanied by a top three finish in the Defensive Player of the Year race.
To some extent, those straightforward expectations from Lowe and Simmons both somehow make Mobley being an MVP candidate more plausible and like a ridiculous leap, at the same time. There are aspects to what was said that are easy, and some that will prove much more difficult.
Mobley’s MVP push will require a scoring leap, efficiency, and elite defense
Let's get the simple part out of the way. A finish inside of the top three of DPOY voting should be pretty close to a given for Mobley. Last year's winner may have a tough time repeating with Victor Wembanyama reentering the picture, but being near the top of the race is nearly guaranteed.
Mobley has a skill set on the defensive end that is truly one of a kind. That should demand recognition among his peers over and over again.
24 and 12 is a tall task for Mobley for a few reasons. The biggest issue here is not necessarily even anticipating the leap. It is about the minutes played.
Mobley only averaged 30.5 minutes per game in his first season under Kenny Atkinson. The Cavaliers head coach loves to go deep off the bench. It would be shocking to see the playing time increase significantly enough to aid Mobley in boosting his production.
If the expectation is for him to play around the same average, that would mean Mobley needs to increase his points per game by 5.5 and his rebounds per game by 2.7 in a similar scenario of minutes distribution. Doable? Maybe. Difficult? Definitely.
The efficiency looks intimidating on paper, but is actually a more attainable task than the one that just preceded it. Mobley already has the field goal percentage where it needs to be. Improved shooting consistency would allow him a needed increase to the latter two categories.
This all comes before considering the strong MVP field that Mobley would need to contend with and the regular season record that the Cavaliers would need to support their star with. Is there a perfect storm that allows for him to win MVP? Sure. Would it be best to cool on those expectations overall? Probably.