This is peak extension season in the NBA.
Or, as one agent told ESPN this week: "The torture chamber."
The deadline for extensions for most eligible players is Monday at 6 p.m. ET. At this point, it's commonplace for there to be pessimism about deals getting done. But compromises -- and deals, along with them -- do happen regularly.
That said, even by normal standards, there is a lot of pessimism right now.
Here's why: There's the continued adaptation to the apron system, which has caused teams to be even more careful about long-term spending. And then there's also a star-studded free agent class in the summer of 2027, when Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Davis and others could all be available to sign with any team.
The deals that do -- and don't -- happen over the next few days set the stage for future negotiations, and they'll signal what free agency could look like next summer.
So here's a look at several of those situations, including an extension that, surprisingly, still isn't done involving a future inner-circle Hall of Famer who changed teams this summer.
Will Kevin Durant extension talks have liftoff in Houston?
Tim Bontemps: The Rockets, under general manager Rafael Stone, have done an excellent job of managing their salary structure -- and that will no doubt play a role in how Durant's contract situation plays out, but also rookie scale extension candidateTari Eason's.
With Fred VanVleet now likely to opt into his $25 million deal for next season after tearing his ACL last month, the Rockets have roughly $70 million to get both Durant and Eason signed and remain under the dreaded second luxury tax apron -- which will allow Houston to continue adding to a roster it hopes is good enough to compete with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference.
If these negotiations were as simple as, "Give Kevin all the possible money" -- like theJimmy Butler IIIextension with the Golden State Warriors was after his acquisition via trade in February -- the deal probably would have been done already. As a result, the expectation from rival teams is that Houston is trying to get deals done with both players and stay below the second apron next summer.
Brian Windhorst: First off, the Butler extension with Golden State happened before the trade. It wasn't until the Warriors raised their monetary offer that Butler acquiesced on his position that he didn't want to go to the Warriors. An improved offer at the 11th hour, though it came without a player option, got the trade done.
As for Durant, who himself blocked a trade to the Warriors last winter, he and business partner/agent Rich Kleiman have been optimistic there will be a deal done eventually with the Rockets. As Tim implied, it is clear the Rockets are not offering Durant the two-year, $120 million max he is eligible for, otherwise the deal would be done. Durant has said on the record he sees himself staying in Houston.
There is clearly some haggling going on beneath the max, and the number could very well be predicated on what happens with Eason as the Rockets manage the apron. There probably isn't drama here, but it is worth pointing out Durant probably doesn't fear unrestricted free agency either.
The present and future balancing act for the Miami Heat
Windhorst: Tyler Herro is coming off an All-Star season and is definitely interested in extending with the Heat, but there haven't been substantive talks to his point and a deal is doubtful, sources say.
In a vacuum, Herro is the player the Heat probably should be most interested in extending, and Herro saw former All-Star Bam Adebayo get a large extension last year. But it doesn't appear to be in the offing.
As for two other extension candidates, recently acquired Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins, long-term deals are also unlikely. Powell, whom theLA Clipperstraded to Miami in part because they were dodging their own extension issue with him, could get a short deal, if anything. Wiggins, for his part, has a player option for $30 million in 2026-27, and while it's possible the Heat might hope to negotiate a different number, they also might not.
And Tim about to tell you why ...
Bontemps: The answer to what will happen with Miami's top extension candidates can be found in the extension that Miami did sign at the start of training camp with forward Nikola Jovic, the No. 27 pick in the 2022 NBA draft. That four-year pact worth a little over $60 million starts out at $16.2 million in 2026-27, before dipping to $14.9 million in 2027-28 and then going back up again.
And why did Miami do that? Because, sources say, the Heat -- like many other teams around the league -- are planning for that aforementioned 2027 free agent class.
Will Jokic, Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Mitchell and Davis all hit unrestricted free agency that summer? It's unlikely. Whether they do or not, several other star names could join them, including Stephen Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kawhi Leonard, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, James Harden and Kyrie Irving.
The fact that Paul George is the only All-Star to change teams via free agency in recent years is a sign this path is far less fruitful than it has been in the past (and look at how things have gone for Philadelphia since landing George last summer). And with the new extension rules that have made it more lucrative to re-sign with current teams, plenty of those players could be off the board by the time free agency arrives that summer.
But Miami will always be a destination for players. And, by maintaining flexibility for the 2027 offseason, the Heat are giving themselves the ability to retool their roster around Adebayo, and attempt to return to title contention. So while that doesn't necessarily preclude a deal getting done with Herro or Powell, it's hard to see Miami passing on its cap space until it knows it has a good reason to.
When a team signing a good contract makes it hard to get an extension done ...
Windhorst: There is a 0.0% chance Austin Reaves signs a contract extension -- and a 99.9% chance he opts out of his $14.8 million player option for next season. We could say "sources say" here because we did check on it, but it's also a no-brainer.
Reaves has one of the best value contracts in the NBA because of contract extension rules. Players can get only 140% of their current salary in an extension, which means Reaves is up for a deal worth roughly $89 million over four years, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. His market will be much higher. The Lakers have his full rights and are favorites to re-sign him, but everyone understands why he's not signing now.
While we're here, let's also address Bulls' guard Coby White, who will not be extending now either. White will earn $12.8 million this season and has outperformed his deal. Like Reaves, he is limited to how much he can sign for now. His extension number is capped at around $18 million if he were to re-sign in Chicago now. His market is also certain to be higher.
Bontemps: There obviously has been an inordinate amount of attention paid to the upcoming free agency of LeBron James. But it might be even more interesting to see what happens with Reaves when he hits free agency next summer. If Reaves waits, he could get an annual salary starting at more than $40 million next season, after making less than that much combined over the first three seasons of his current deal.
The 6-foot-5 guard has been a huge success story since joining the Lakers as an undrafted free agent in 2021. He has steadily improved, averaging career-bests of 20.2 points and 5.8 assists last season while shooting 37.7% from 3-point range on more than seven attempts per game.
There were 10 players who qualified for the scoring title who averaged at least 20, 5 and shot 37% from the field: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson, Darius Garland, Damian Lillard, Jamal Murray, Jokic, Curry, James and Herro.
Not bad company for a guy who will be an unrestricted free agent at 28, and therefore will have plenty of suitors.
Ditto for White, for all the reasons Brian said. Even after the Bulls gotJosh Giddey's four-year, $100 million deal done earlier this summer, they still have roughly $75 million in cap space available next summer, per Bobby Marks, to both keep White and retool the roster around him, Giddey and the team's past two lottery picks, forwards Matas Buzelis and Noa Essengue.
A busy offseason could lead to a busy in-season in Atlanta
Windhorst: There is mutual interest between the Hawks and Kristaps Porzingis in extending his deal, sources said. But with Porzingis' injury history and a radical change in circumstance following the offseason trade that brought him from Boston -- and after Porzingis spent much of the summer in Europe playing for the Latvian national team -- and both sides are comfortable seeing how the season progresses.
Unlike some others, Porzingis isn't facing a Monday deadline to extend. With one season at $30.7 million left on his deal, he can extend any time between now and June 30.
The same timeline goes for franchise player Trae Young, whose situation is more intriguing. Unlike Porzingis, whose contract is up after the season, Young has a $49 million player option for next season that he'd prefer not to pick up and instead replace with a lucrative new deal.
In a different era, a multitime All-Star coming off his first max contract could expect to have his contract extended again at the max. But in the apron era and with the Hawks having to invest in younger players, Young is a bit of a tweener.
He's a star but he's not a superstar, and a new max contract at 30% of the salary cap would be superstar money. We probably will see this situation more often over the next few years with this class of sub-superstar players looking for their second max deal.
Bontemps: The Hawks are also negotiating with reigning Most Improved Player Dyson Daniels, who does face the Monday extension deadline to extend his rookie contract.
Last fall, the Hawks got such a deal done at the buzzer with Jalen Johnson, a five-year, $150 million deal that, moving forward, looks like a very good piece of business for Atlanta.
For the much discussed, failed "two timelines" approach in Golden State, a similar situation is developing in Atlanta. The Hawks are excited about their young core of Johnson, Daniels, last year's No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, rookie Asa Newell and potentially a very high pick coming in next year's draft via the New Orleans Pelicans.
But Young and Porzingis are the two best players on the current roster, and fit extremely well with the youngplayers the Hawks have around them. Because of how the Hawks have managed their books over the past year, there's a world in which the Hawks could get a Daniels deal done, figure out deals for Young and Porzingis next summer, and stay below the aprons.
That could give the Hawks the opportunity to do the thing every team in the league is trying to do and what few teams other than the Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully done under the new CBA: develop, and keep, depth on the roster.
An update on the expensive balancing act in New York
Windhorst: The Knicks have had some discussions about extending center Mitchell Robinson, sources say, but there hasn't yet been traction toward a deal. Robinson is in the last year of a contract that pays him $13 million this season.
Towns has three years left on his deal, including this season, though 2027-28 is a $61 million player option. He has expressed a desire to stay in New York long term, but there's no urgency from either side to get a new deal done.
Bontemps: One of a few reasons why the Knicks would be unlikely to do an extension with either Towns or Robinson is because they're already playing a complicated game of limbo with the second apron.
Does that mean some sort of blockbuster trade is inevitable? Not at all. But the Knicks have repeatedly shown under team president Leon Rose that they are going to maintain as much roster flexibility as possible. Even the extension they did sign this summer, with Mikal Bridges, allows him to be traded before the trade deadline on Feb. 5, if the Knicks choose to.
And then there's the guy who extended last year ...
Bontemps: Yes, Joel Embiid participated in Sunday's open-to-the-public scrimmage and could make his preseason debut in the Philadelphia 76ers' final exhibition game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. But we learned long ago it is foolish to plan much in 76ers' land beyond the next 24 hours.
That being said, Embiid playing in the scrimmage Sunday was a pleasant surprise, and falls in line with the general contours of how this preseason has played out for him and the 76ers: with Embiid regularly participating in practice, and seemingly building toward playing in next week's season opener in Boston.
That's a far cry from how his season began last fall, when Embiid signed a four-year, $240 million extension with Philadelphia only to then go through a disastrous campaign that ended with knee surgery in February.
Windhorst: The 76ers operate in a different world than much of the rest of the league. They're so scarred from injury setbacks and so cognizant of the venom from fans that, as a defense mechanism, they've learned to make no promises and lower expectations.
That being said, Embiid is doing far more now than he was a year ago at this time. And while he hasn't begun to practice fully yet, George's participation level has also taken meaningful steps forwardsince training camp began.
More immediately, though, they are over-the-moon excited about the potential of rookie VJ Edgecombe.
Bontemps: To Brian's point, it's remarkable how different expectations are surrounding Embiid, George and the 76ers now compared to just a year ago. Then, the talk was about it being a "championship-or-bust" season, and how it was finally going to be the breakthrough season Embiid, the 76ers and Philadelphia had been waiting over a decade to witness.
But after the calamitous way last season played out, there are virtually no expectations this season. The league's GMs, by a wide margin, voted Philadelphia as the league's hardest team to project. Embiid being relatively healthy, and the 76ers returning to the playoffs, would be seen as at least somewhat of a success in the wake of how poorly the past 12 months have gone.
All of that is why rival scouts and executives are eager for Embiid in live action, to see whether he looks anything like the player he was before last season, or the one who struggled through those 19 games a year ago.br/]
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