Advantage Buccaneers: Passing Offense
Even with all the injuries sustained by the Buccaneers' pass-catching corps – by the second half in Week Six the offense was without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan – Baker Mayfield has kept the Bucs' passing attack near the top of the league rankings. Mayfield is throwing for 244.2 yards per game, which ranks seventh in the NFL, and has a passer rating of 108.5. Meanwhile, the Lions' secondary has been hit with an equally damaging rash of injuries to its secondary, with D.J. Reed, Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw all on injured reserve and Avonte Maddox dealing with a hamstring injury. This week, that crew will also be without versatile safety Brian Branch, who will be serving a one-game suspension. The Lions' pass defense has still coped pretty well, ranking 14th in the NFL while allowing 212.7 yards pr game, but last Sunday night the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes hit them for 257 yards and three touchdowns while completing 73.3% of his passes.
Advantage Lions: Red Zone Scoring
Detroit's red zone offense has been predictably very efficient. After ranking no lower than fourth in red zone touchdown percentage in each of the past three seasons, the Lions are at fourth again this year, taking 74.1% of their trips inside the 20 all the way to the end zone. The Lions are particularly good at running the ball in that compressed area of the field and are clearly determined to do so, averaging eight red zone carries per game and ranking second in the NFL with 123 rushing yards in that situation. The Buccaneers did get one red zone stop in last week's win over San Francisco, but still rank 28th in the NFL in that category. Opposing teams have turned 68.9% of their forays inside Tampa Bay's 20-yard line into touchdowns.
X-Factor: Turnovers
These two teams simply are into giving the ball away. The Buccaneers and Lions have combined for five turnovers in 12 games, and Tampa Bay's offense has gone without a giveaway in five of its six outings. Not coincidentally, the Bucs' only turnovers came in the team's only loss so far, to Philadelphia in Week Four. Detroit has only allowed three points off turnovers all season while the Bucs have only allowed seven. Obviously, this is a big strength for both teams and the trend could continue through Monday night. But if either defense manages to break through in the turnover department, that will probably prove to be a winning edge.