In Minneapolis’ odd-year city elections, a small set of deeply engaged voters can play kingmaker. Turnout data from the last three mayoral races indicate that as residents of Ward 13 vote, so goes the city’s highest office.
Ward 13 encompasses the affluent neighborhoods of Armatage, East Harriet, Fulton, Kenny, Linden Hills and Lynnhurst, where the average household income is over $100,000 and most people own their homes. [While each ward](https://www.minneapolismn.gov/government/city-council/find-my-ward/)’s population is roughly the same, residents in this southwest corner of the city flex outsized political influence by consistently hitting the polls harder than any other ward.
In the last three mayoral elections, Ward 13’s registered voter turnout has outpaced every other ward and tracked seven to 14 points higher than Minneapolis as a whole, with total ballots representing up to 13% of the citywide tabulation.
Some years, the contrast with Minneapolis’ poorer neighborhoods is stark. This matters because differences in the voting power of neighborhoods across race, age and homeownership status can shape the priorities of elected officials.
“Politicians care about getting re-elected ... it’s sort of inherent in wanting to be a successful politician to cater to the people who are most likely to turn out to vote,” said professor Katherine Levine Einstein of Boston University.
Her [research](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/10780874251371695) shows that while older, whiter homeowners reliably turn out to shape elections, the effect is even more dramatic in cities like Minneapolis, where mayoral races have lower turnout overall because they don’t align with higher-energy presidential elections.
In Minneapolis, southwest residents’ preferences shaped the results of the last three mayoral races, according to a Minnesota Star Tribune analysis of the 2013, 2017 and 2021 elections.
Betsy Hodges, who won in 2013, performed best in the south-central wards 8 and 9. But she also claimed a strong plurality in Ward 13, drawing more than 40% of its first-choice votes in a crowded field of opponents.