How Newcastle United’s xG performance compares to their Premier League rivals as they return to club action.
Newcastle United have not seen much goalmouth action at both ends of the pitch for the majority of the league season so far, but the underlying stats show that their defensive performance does hold up to scrutiny, and Eddie Howe’s side could be in for a great campaign if they can find their shooting boots up front.
The Magpies have not put on the most entertaining of shows at the start of the season, despite the enthralling encounters against table-topping Arsenal and reigning champions Liverpool.
The five goals conceded to lose each of those games in agonising fashion are the only ones let in by Howe’s formidable defence that sit second in the goals conceded chart, trailing behind only Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side of elite defensive stature, who have only conceded three.
By conceding in only two of the seven games, Newcastle lead the league with five clean sheets. They sit alongside Tottenham Hotspur and Crystal Palace on goals conceded but their underlying numbers make for even better reading.
Is Newcastle’s defence really good or really lucky?
Newcastle have been dominant defensively so far this season, but have they actually been good at keeping teams out, or are they fortunate that opponents aren’t taking their chances? According to Understat.com, the underlying data shows that Howe’s side is above even Arsenal, who have conceded the least in the league this season, when it comes to xGA (expected goals against), with only 4.98 conceded, performing nearly exactly to how they should be.
Arsenal sit in second in this ranking with 5.04 xGA, meaning they should have conceded just above two more goals than they have so far. Bournemouth sit in third with 6.54 xGA, an underperformance of 1.46. Manchester City are next with 7.45 xGA, overperforming by 1.45 goals, and a surprising side rounds off the top five as newly promoted Leeds United have accumulated 8.17 xGA and are underperforming by a massive 2.83, so they should’ve conceded even less, but teams have been ruthless against them.
At the other end of the table, it will be no shock to many that Burnley, Nottingham Forest and West Ham make up the bottom three, but in 17th place sit Manchester United, 10.37 xGA conceded, over five more than the Magpies.
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Where do Newcastle’s attack rank?
Nick Woltemade.placeholder image
Nick Woltemade. | Getty Images.
Newcastle’s league-leading defence will hope for some improved form from the attack that has only scored six goals in seven Premier League games, ranking the bottom of the league in 16th place. But there are signs of promise as Nick Woltemade has settled in quickly to life in the North East and has scored three in the league and one in the Champions League, including in a 4-0 thrashing away to Union Saint-Gilloise. He kept up this outstanding run of form on international duty with Germany by scoring, so he will return to club action brimming with confidence.
When analysing through expected goals (xG), looking at how many goals Howe’s attack should have scored from the chances they have created so far this season, Newcastle rank slightly, bang in the middle of the table, with 9.57. This indicates that the forward line has been misfiring, missing out on 3.57 more goals than they actually scored.
At the top of the rankings are two sides who are massively underperforming their xG, with Crystal Palace at 14.54 from nine goals scored and Manchester United with 13.97, also from nine goals scored. At the bottom of the table are, again unsurprisingly, Wolves, Burnley, West Ham and Nottingham Forest, who have all accumulated around five to seven xG.
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