Daniel Farke does not believe Leeds United’s trip to Burnley is a must-win game. I wholeheartedly disagreed until I saw the Noah Okafor news.
Eight points from seven games is a respectable start to the season for Leeds. That’s especially so, given three of those games were against the current top four.
We probably should have maybe four points extra too, deserving more vs Spurs, Bournemouth and Fulham. Daniel Farke’s task now is converting ‘competitiveness’ into points on the board, with Burnley up next.
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Burnley v Leeds United: Daniel Farke downplays ‘must win’ notion
Burnley have had a rough start this season. 18th in the actual table on four points, but 20th for several underlying metrics including xG for and xG against (FBRef).
For Leeds, building on a solid start means winning the winnable games, including Burnley.
The idea of it being a ‘must win’ is not one that Farke subscribes to, though.
Daniel Farke isn’t keen to say Leeds United’s trip to Burnley is a must-win game. (Action Images via Reuters/Andrew Boyers)
When previewing the game during his pre-match press conference, he was eager to downplay this specific game’s importance to the overall goal.
“Definitely not a must-win game.” Farke said, per Beren Cross. “Newly-promoted teams are always underdogs away from home. Burnley won 100 points last season. At our best, we have a chance to win points, as with all the other games.”
Daniel Farke is justified to downplay Burnley (A) as a ‘must win’ for Leeds United – But it’s a strange one
There’s more to it than Farke, or any manager, giving a face-value answer to a question like this.
Hyping his players up as if this game is ‘do or die’ may not be wise, because there’s so much football to be played.
That being said, I did initially disagree with the idea that this isn’t a game where Leeds need to claim three points. I had wrote this piece with the sole intention of going against Farke saying it’s not a must win game. Wolves was the same, and that three points laid down a real marker for supposed ‘six-pointers’.
Leeds United made a big statement in their first crucial six-pointer vs Wolves, but they are now without Noah Okafor for this Burnley clash. (Action Images via Reuters/Matthew Childs)
Obviously, you’ll pick up points here and there from the ‘better’ sides. But, looking at the fixture list to estimate the ‘10 wins’ prescribed for a successful survival bid, Burnley home and away are surely two of them.
However, Leeds’ hopes of outplaying Burnley and putting them to the sword have been hit with a massive blow. Noah Okafor is ruled out of the game with an injury, seeing him sit out for the next seven-to-10 days, likely missing the West Ham clash too.
It leaves Leeds with a significantly weaker attack, and therefore a reduced chance of securing a much-needed win on the road.
Although, it shouldn’t stop Leeds from looking to win, because we’ve still got quality. Draw or lose a game like this, and all of a sudden, you’re going into other and more difficult fixtures absolutely needing points.
From the November international break up until Christmas, Leeds have a nasty set of games:
18/10: Burnley (A)
24/10: West Ham (H)
1/11: Brighton (A)
9/11: Nottingham Forest (A)
23/11: Aston Villa (H)
29/11: Manchester City (A)
3/12: Chelsea (H)
6/12: Liverpool (H)
14/12: Brentford (A)
21/12: Crystal Palace (H)
Playing catchup during that period is the last thing we need. Getting ahead of it by winning at Burnley could be vital, giving us a springboard in the three games directly after it too.
No disrespect is intended to Burnley here, who should really be thinking the same of Leeds. It’s definitely still must-win, because if you’re not beating the side with the worst underlying metrics in the division, who can you reasonably expect to beat?
Read more: Predicted XI for Leeds United’s trip to Burnley…