Leeds United travel to Burnley this afternoon with three points in mind to make a statement in the quest to stay in the Premier League.
Leeds’ first cluster of games proved that Daniel Farke’s side have what it takes to be competitive in the battle for survival.
After two very good performances only yielded a point against Bournemouth and Spurs, we need to convert that into points on the board. Starting with Burnley away this afternoon.
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Glaring Burnley weakness uncovered as Leeds United look for perfect away performance
We should be fancying ourselves for three points at Turf Moor, simply put. While Burnley collected four points against Leeds last season in the Championship, they’ve found themselves struggling a great deal more this season.
Granted, they’ve played three of the top five in their opening seven. But we’ve played three of the top four in the same timespan, outplaying one, running one close, and being thumped by the other.
The underlying numbers paint a bleak picture from the Clarets’ start.
Stats (FBref) Figure PL ranking
xG for 4.9 20th
xG against 13.4 20th
Shots against (per 90) 129 (18.4) 20th
Shots on target against (per 90) 38 (5.43) 20th
Take-ons leading to shots against 14 20th
Dead balls leading to shots against 21 20th
If I delve deeper, I could sugarcoat Burnley’s defensive numbers, but the weaknesses are there. For Leeds, it’s about exploiting them to create, and more importantly score chances to win the match, after threatening to do so against two of the league’s best in the last two games.
Joe Rodon to strike again while he’s in impressive goalscoring form for Leeds United and Wales?
The weakness here that sticks out to me is that Burnley have conceded the most shots in the league. Not only that, but they concede the most directly after a take-on, as well as the most from dead balls.
It comes with the territory that if you’re conceding the most overall, you’re probably going to conceding the most in each breakdown too.
For Leeds, the take-ons insight should be a huge confidence-booster to Noah Okafor, who’s got a bit between this teeth right now. From a dead ball, though, Leeds may have found a surprising solution.
Joe Rodon has proven to be quite the threat from set pieces this season for Leeds United and Wales. (Action Images via Reuters/John Clifton)
Sean Longstaff has wrestled control of every free-kick and corner in crossing range, and it’s paid dividends with Joe Rodon getting on the end of them quite often.
He scored his first Premier League goal against Bournemouth, and was a lick of paint away from opening the scoring against Spurs. After that, he towered home a header on international duty and all of a sudden looks prolific.
Burnley will provide a stubborn block on the edge of their box if game plans go as expected. Leeds need to find a way to brute force their way to goals in games like this, and the Clarets being weak from stopping shots, plus Rodon’s newfound threat in the air could make for a telling combo.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!