Stats experts Opta have had their say on Newcastle United's chances of securing a Champions League or Europa League spot.
The Magpies have experienced mixed fortunes in their opening two fixtures after following up their 2-1 home defeat against La Liga champions Barcelona with a 4-0 win at Union Saint-Gilloise as an Anthony Gordon brace and a goal apiece from Nick Woltemade and Harvey Barnes helped Eddie Howe’s men to a comfortable win in Belgium. That combination of results has left the Magpies sitting in eleventh place in the league table and they lie just one point shy of a top eight spot that would guarantee them a place in the last 16 of UEFA’s elite club competition.
No matter what happens on Tuesday night, Newcastle supporters have plenty of reason to look forward to their remaining league phase fixtures as their side face home games with Athletic Bilbao and PSV Eindhoven as well as away days at Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen and reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain.
But what are the Magpies chances of securing European football for a second consecutive season following the defeat on the south coast that left them in the bottom half of the Premier League table? We take a look at how stats experts Opta rate Newcastle’s chances of a return to European competition next season.
What are Newcastle United’s chances of securing European qualification this season?
Newcastle United's Italian midfielder #08 Sandro Tonali (C) celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the UEFA Champions League, league phase - Matchday 2 football match between Royale Union Saint-Gilloise and Newcastle United FC at the RSC Anderlecht Stadium in Brussels on October 1, 2025.placeholder image
Newcastle United's Italian midfielder #08 Sandro Tonali (C) celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the UEFA Champions League, league phase - Matchday 2 football match between Royale Union Saint-Gilloise and Newcastle United FC at the RSC Anderlecht Stadium in Brussels on October 1, 2025. | AFP via Getty Images
1. Arsenal - Champions League 92.63% Europa League 3.41%
2. Liverpool - Champions League 85.27% Europa League 5.79%
3. Manchester City - Champions League 72.96% Europa League 9.25%
4. Chelsea - Champions League 40.36% Europa League 13.44%
5. Crystal Palace - Champions League 22.69% Europa League 11.99%
6. Bournemouth - Champions League 16.92% Europa League 10.55%
7. Brighton and Hove Albion - Champions League 15.74% Europa League 9.22%
8. Tottenham Hotspur - Champions League 16.01% Europa League 8.88%
9. Newcastle United - Champions League 14.23% Europa League 8.80%
10. Aston Villa - Champions League 13.03% Europa League 8.35%
11. Everton - Champions League 3.49% Europa League 3.16%
12. Manchester United - Champions League 3.35% Europa League 3.47%
13. Brentford - Champions League 1.64% Europa League 1.80%
14. Fulham - Champions League 1.12% Europa League 1.06%
15. Sunderland - Champions League 0.28% Europa League 0.41%
16. Nottingham Forest - Champions League 0.08% Europa League 0.14%
17. West Ham United - Champions League 0.10% Europa League 0.13%
18. Leeds United - Champions League 0.07% Europa League 0.08%
19. Burnley - Champions League 0.01% Europa League 0.05%
20: Wolverhampton Wanderers - Champions League 0.02% Europa League 0.02%
*UEFA Conference League predictions not stated by Opta
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