Round 5 has come and gone, and what a weekend it was across the NBL.
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With nine games on the slate, we saw a mix of drama, dominance, and some worrying trends. From the string of blowouts that continue to impact the league’s overall product, to Bryce Cotton’s jaw-dropping 53-point explosion – there was plenty to unpack.
Meanwhile, Tasmania’s tough start to the season deserves some credit – seven games played, five on the road, and still sitting at 4-3 is no small feat. And over in Illawarra, the big question remains: can the Hawks turn things around quickly enough to keep JaVale McGee locked in for the long haul?
All that and more on this week’s edition of Talking Points.
**THE BLOWOUTS ARE BECOMING A PROBLEM**
The NBL this season has been billed as the biggest, best, and most competitive campaign yet – but early results tell a different story. A concerning number of games are ending in blowouts. To start the season, 56% of games have been decided by 10+ points, 34% by 20+ points, and 15% by 30+ points or more.
Those numbers are staggering, and the trend is worsening. In Round 5, seven of nine games ended in blowouts. In Round 4, five of eight were the same. If this continues, the league’s reputation for parity could take a serious hit. So, what’s causing it – and how can it be fixed?
One of the main factors is adjustment time. With so many new players and imports entering the league, it takes weeks for teams to adapt to new playbooks, coaching systems, and even officiating styles. Add in the revolving door of late arrivals, player departures, and constant roster movement, and it’s no surprise that some sides look completely out of sync.
Another key issue is scheduling. The introduction of the Ignite Cup has added more midweek games, compressing the calendar. For example, the Tasmania JackJumpers played a Wednesday night game at home, then travelled internationally to face the Breakers on Friday – a turnaround of less than 48 hours. Unsurprisingly, they ran out of gas and lost by 17 points.
This growing trend hurts the product. Close contests keep fans glued from start to finish, but when a team leads by 20-plus at halftime, engagement plummets. The hope is that as the season progresses and teams settle, the gap between sides will narrow. But for now, blowouts are becoming one of the NBL’s biggest on-court problems.
NBL Wrap: United continue undefeated run | 01:09
**BRYCE COTTON IS BREAKING THE NBL AGAIN**
Bryce Cotton is a five-time NBL MVP, has spent nine incredible seasons in the league – and somehow, no one has figured out how to slow him down. Through the opening stretch of the season, Cotton is averaging a ridiculous 30.6 points per game, even after a rare seven-point outing against Sydney. Since that game, he’s been on a tear, averaging 40 points per game as the Adelaide 36ers have surged to a 2-0 record and found their rhythm.
But here’s the question: why can’t teams defend him the way Sydney did? The blueprint exists – it’s just nearly impossible to execute. The Kings showed the formula: chase him off the three-point line, use the big in the pick-and-roll to close off space, and force him to pass or finish inside.
Cairns, on the other hand, did the opposite. They were slow to react in coverage, gave Cotton room to breathe, and paid the price – watching him drill five threes and carve them up at will. When they finally adjusted and ran him off the line, their help defence collapsed. Cotton either pulled up in the midrange or blew by to the rim. If defenders rotated to contest, he’d kick it out to a wide-open shooter.
It’s the same story we’ve seen for years – everyone knows what’s coming, but no one can stop it. Cotton continues to evolve, reading defences faster and punishing every mistake.
At this pace, MVP number six feels inevitable. And if he pulls that off – six MVPs in nine seasons – Bryce Cotton won’t just be the best import the league has ever seen… he’ll be in the conversation for the greatest NBL player of all time.
Bryce Cotton keeps cooking. (Photo by Emily Barker/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
**BEWARE THE TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS**
The Tasmania JackJumpers have quietly battled through one of the toughest starts to the NBL season – and they’re still sitting at a strong 4–3 record. Considering the adversity they’ve faced, that mark looks even more impressive.
Injuries have hit early, with Majok Deng, Anthony Drmic, and David Johnson all missing time, while the team has endured a brutal travel schedule – five of their first seven games have been on the road. Those trips included stops in Perth, Brisbane, and New Zealand – three of the toughest away assignments in terms of travel in the league.
But now, things are turning in their favour. After a clash with Sydney on the road next round, the JackJumpers return home for five straight games – a stretch that could define their season. Last year, Tasmania won nine of fourteen home games, and if that form continues, this upcoming run could launch them straight up the ladder.
Round 5 perfectly captured their inconsistency – a dominant home win over the Sydney Kings, followed by a disappointing blowout loss to the New Zealand Breakers. Still, given the lineup changes, ongoing injuries, and the process of integrating new players, the JackJumpers are right where they need to be.
Scott Roth’s team remains true to its identity – disciplined, defensive, and relentless. They’re allowing the second-fewest points per game (82.6) in the NBL, but the offence still has room to grow, currently averaging 84.6 points per game, the third-lowest mark in the league.
Once Tasmania’s roster is healthy and their chemistry clicks, watch out. At 4-3 and with a favourable schedule ahead, this team is poised to rocket back into contender status – just like they did last season when everyone counted them out.
Bullets end 4-game losing streak | 01:24
**WILL JAVALE MCGEE STAY THE FULL SEASON?**
The NBL25 champion Illawarra Hawks have endured a rough start to their title defence. Sitting at 1-4 and anchored to the bottom of the ladder, the Hawks are already fighting to keep their season alive. Their latest outing – a 116-76 demolition at the hands of South East Melbourne – highlighted just how far they’ve fallen, and how urgently they need help.
Before that game, head coach Justin Tatum hinted that the club was “looking into what it needed,” suggesting changes could be on the horizon. But after such a heavy defeat, it’s clear one addition might not be enough. The Hawks’ issues extend beyond their lack of a true floor general – they’re struggling with scoring, leadership, defensive pressure, and accountability across the board.
And amid this chaos sits JaVale McGee. The three-time NBA champion has been nothing short of elite since arriving in Wollongong, once again delivering with 22 points and 11 rebounds in just 23 minutes on the weekend. He’s been the team’s only consistent performer – but how long will these perfomances last if the losing continues?
So, what’s next for Illawarra? Who will they bring in, and when? More importantly – will it be enough to spark a revival? The Hawks are a proud club, led by a coach with a proven track record, and a fanbase that refuses to quit. But if things don’t shift quickly, this season could slip away before it even begins.