CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Cavs’ NBA title dreams hang by the tissue in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s muscles.
His Bucks are one extended Antetokounmpo absence — one awkward landing — away from losing control of their season. They can’t win without him. He can’t stomach another lost year of his career.
The Knicks are waiting.
I think New York’s patience pays off this season, and this counts as a bold Cavs prediction — let’s remember why we call them bold — because every move atop the East moves their title odds.
The Bucks will stumble early, then trade Antetokounmpo to the Knicks midseason. And that trade will decide the Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and New York.
The Knicks, who traded most of their available draft picks for Mikal Bridges last offseason, don’t have the best trade package to offer Milwaukee. But as ESPN reported earlier this month, Antetokounmpo labeled New York his preferred destination this summer.
And in this league, once that happens, it’s hard to fight gravity.
As we will discuss below, Cleveland counts plenty of reasons to choose optimism this basketball season. The Core Four still counts zero members older than 29 (Donovan Mitchell). And the Eastern Conference hasn’t looked this winnable since LeBron James left in 2018.
But New York is about to land its version of James and Kyrie Irving. I’ll take Antetokounmpo and Jalen Brunson over the still unproven Cavs in seven games.
Cleveland will show postseason growth this season. Just not enough to dethrone the Greek Freak.
Four more bold predictions about Cleveland’s 2025-26 season:
2. Cleveland’s Unexpected All Star
The Cavs will send three players to Inglewood, Calif., for February’s NBA All-Star game, and one will be a first-time selection.
Go ahead, do the math. Donovan Mitchell has made six All-Star teams in eight seasons. Darius Garland earned his second selection last season. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have both already checked this box.
But forward De’Andre Hunter, whom coach Kenny Atkinson labeled one of Cleveland’s best offseason players, has never participated in All-Star Weekend. Until this season, that is.
Our theory begins with a thinner all-star selection pool than usual. Three of last year’s East All-Stars — Garland, Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard — will begin the season injured, and this does not include Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton, who will miss the season with a torn Achilles.
That leaves room for players like Hunter, whose role will increase this season, especially so while Max Strus misses time with a Jones fracture.
Hunter is expected to start in Strus’ absence. And the seventh-year forward averaged 14.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting last season while primarily playing a bench role.
Hunter only played 25 minutes per game last regular season, and he enjoyed minimal practice time between his February arrival and the playoffs.
But Cleveland just spent a full offseason figuring how to fit Hunter into its plans. Hunter feels more comfortable in Atkinson’s system. Between Garland’s toe injury, Strus’s foot injury and former Cavs guard Ty Jerome’s departure, Cleveland has 32 shots per game to replace at season’s beginning.
Expect Hunter to take (and make) many of them. Expect the Cavs to stack regular-season wins in a weakened East while key players miss time.
And expect voters to reward Hunter for his increased role in Cleveland’s success.
3. Cavs defense will rank top three in the league again
The Cavs opened this contention window around a dominant defense, and I believe they will return to those principles again this season.
Despite what Atkinson might say, I believe Cleveland lost its defensive ethos last postseason. The Cavs ranked eighth out of eight conference semifinalists in defensive rating during their playoff loss to the Pacers. And before that, Cleveland ranked 14th in the 28 regular-season games it played after the All-Star break.
No more. Cleveland will fill Garland and Strus’s holes in the rotation (and replace Ty Jerome’s targetable minutes) with more playing time for plus-defenders.
Lonzo Ball and Dean Wade — not to mention reigning Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — will help the Cavs re-establish their standard. Cleveland will uphold that standard when Garland and Strus return.
And it doesn’t hurt that two of the East’s best offenses — Boston and Indiana — will play without their best players for at least most of the year.
Worse competition plus better defenders (and improved defensive focus) equal another top-flight Cleveland defense.
I like this Cavs equation.
4. Jayson Tatum will help Cleveland learn a playoff lesson
The Cavs will have to beat Boston this postseason. And they will have to defend Jayson Tatum while they do it.
Tatum dunked a basketball earlier this month, which marks about five months since he suffered a torn Achilles in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals. He got surgery less than 24 hours later, signaling from the start that he planned to rehab quickly.
I think Tatum returns this season, and I think his Celtics will still be in the playoff hunt when he does. During an interview with Netflix’s “Starting 5″ series, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla and All-Star Jaylen Brown were both asked who would win if they fought each other.
Brown’s response: “I think Joe has a level of craziness, but I think my craziness might surpass what he’s ever seen before.”
Mazzulla’s: “... Either he’s gonna win, or we’re both gonna die.”
Does that sound like two men ready to punt on the playoffs this season?
I get it. The Celtics lost Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet this offseason. But they have enough left over — Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Brown and Mazzulla’s maniacal competitiveness — to stay afloat while Tatum heals.
And when Tatum returns, nobody wants to see Boston in the playoffs.
Sorry, Cleveland, I think you’ll have to. I see Tatum returning in March and helping steer Boston into the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament. I see the Celtics taking a 2-1 series lead against Cleveland.
But then I’m picturing the Cavs finding the resolve they lacked in years past. They win three straight games to finish a 4-2 series win. Then they apply the lessons learned in the next round.
Another win. Conference Finals bound. Antetokounmpo’s Knicks await.
5. Evan Mobley plays so well that he forces a Core Four trade next summer
Buy one bold prediction, get one free. Mobley will crack some MVP ballots this season which, to be fair, Atkinson first predicted back in July.
I’m buying the hype. I believe Atkinson will advance the mission to involve Mobley more often. I think Mobley will dominate opposing second units while the Cavs rest Mitchell during games.
And I worry what this means for Jarrett Allen.
We all knew this was coming eventually, right? Allen and Mobley play the same position. And starting next season, they will both make big money. Allen’s extension averages $30.2 million per season, Mobley’s amounts $53.8 million annually.
That’s a lot of money for two players who play the same position, especially when one possesses All-NBA talent.
The better (and stronger) Mobley grows, the less necessary Allen feels. And if Mobley’s earning MVP votes, well ...
In a way, this feels like the best ending possible. Many assumed the Cavs would eventually trade Allen because he couldn’t match opponents’ playoff intensity or he would hinder Mobley’s development.
I’m predicting the opposite.
Mobley and Allen thrive together this postseason. Mobley posts more career-high statistics. And the Cavs decide next summer that their two-big experiment worked so well that they can afford to move one for more help at other positions.
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