The Opta Supercomputer has delivered a worrying update on Leeds United’s survival hopes following the defeat against Burnley.
With eight games of the Premier League season played, Leeds currently have eight points and sit 15th in the table, three points outside of the bottom three.
However, there are several reasons for concern as Daniel Farke prepares for the crucial encounter with West Ham. For example, Leeds are currently the worst in the division at converting their big chances.
Noah Okafor faces a race to be fit for the West Ham game as Farke desperately needs to find a way to unlock his misfiring attack.
The Opta Supercomputer has been generally confident about Leeds’ survival hopes this season, consistently predicting them to finish outside the bottom three. However, the latest update will worry Leeds fans, as they prepare for what is shaping up to be a must-win game.
Joe Rodon reacts at full-time of Burnley v Leeds United - Premier League
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Opta Supercomputer delivers latest Leeds United relegation prediction
Leeds’ defeat against Burnley means that the Whites cannot afford to slip up against the Hammers as they look to maintain a healthy gap between themselves and the bottom three.
However, the latest update from Opta now has Leeds back in the bottom three, having reduced their optimism about their chances this season.
Under the latest prediction, Leeds were relegated in 44.28% of Opta’s scenarios and now have a final predicted points total of 37.07.
Predicted Position Team Predicted Points % chance of relegation
16 Nottingham Forest 37.88 39.26%
17 West Ham 37.38 42.27%
18 Leeds United 37.07 44.28%
19 Burnley 35.57 51.83%
20 Wolves 31.55 69.40%
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In better news for Farke’s side, the margins are very thin in the bottom five. Friday’s opponents, West Ham, are now predicted to finish 17th, on an average of 37.28 points, with Nottingham Forest in 16th on 37.88 points.
With Leeds set to face both West Ham and Forest in their next three fixtures, that prediction could look different again if Farke can secure two positive results.
Dan Farke covers his face during Leeds United vs Burnley.
Photo by Richard Martin-Roberts – CameraSport/CameraSport via Getty Images
Stat highlights Leeds United’s attacking issues
Farke pointed to Leeds’ statistical dominance after the game in an attempt to defend his side’s performance at Turf Moor.
Leeds had 19 shots against Burnley, creating a total of four big chances, with Brenden Aaronson guilty of missing the best chance of the game.
According to Opta’s Jonny Cooper, posting on the social media site X (formerly Twitter), Leeds have the third-best shot difference in the Premier League in the last three fixtures, having taken 54 shots and allowed just 25.
Across the last three Premier League matchdays, the three teams with the best shot difference (shots minus shots faced):
Arsenal (+36) – 9 points, +4 GD
Man City (+30) – 9 points, +7 GD
Leeds (+29) – 1 point, -3 GD
3 goals from 54 shots, 6 conceded from 25 faced. #lufc pic.twitter.com/46ut0L7Hml
— Jonny Cooper (@JRCooper26) October 19, 2025
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However, those 54 shots have produced just three goals, whereas Leeds have conceded six from the 25 shots they have faced.
By contrast, the only two sides with a better differential, Arsenal and Manchester City, have a positive points and goal difference from the last three games, proving just how costly Leeds’ missed chances have been.