We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League game at Estadio de la Cerámica with our Villarreal vs Manchester City prediction and preview. Can the visitors collect a rare win in Spain?
Villarreal vs Manchester City: The Key Stats
Manchester City defeated Villarreal in 52.6% of the Opta supercomputer pre-match simulations.
Man City have won both of their previous meetings with Villarreal, albeit they occurred in 2011.
Erling Haaland has scored eight goals in eight UEFA Champions League appearances against Spanish opponents. He’s now scored in 11 successive appearances for club and country.
Villarreal and Manchester City both drew 2-2 in their previous UEFA Champions League matches as the result of a 90th-minute goal. The former will have been far happier than the latter about their shared outcome.
Juventus had come from a goal down to lead 2-1 at the Estadio de la Cerámica in Matchday 2, only for former Chelsea defender Renato Veiga to equalise with a header from a corner.
At almost exactly the same time, Eric Dier was scoring from the penalty spot for Monaco. They were 2-1 down thanks to a brace from Erling Haaland, so where Villarreal had saved a point in their game, City had dropped two in theirs.
Even so, the Premier League side have a healthy four points to sit eighth in the table as this matchday begins. As Villarreal lost their opener 1-0 at Tottenham, they desperately need something from this game.
If they are to avoid defeat, the La Liga side will have to overcome their history against Pep Guardiola. He has never lost against Villarreal in his managerial career, facing them on eight occasions (winning five times). The only Spanish opponents he has faced more times without suffering defeat are Athletic Club (14) and Valencia (10).
Villarreal boss Marcelino does at least have experience of holding a Guardiola side at bay. The managers last met in October 2011 when Sevilla drew 0-0 at Barcelona. The home side had 74% of the possession that day and City may get close to that figure here.
They have already recorded the two highest possession averages in a Champions League game this season: 73.8% versus Napoli and 71.3% at Monaco. Villarreal, meanwhile, rank 29th out of the 36 teams for average possession in the current edition (43.1%).
There isn’t just the issue of ball ownership but where on the pitch possession is held. City have completed 1,092 passes in the opposition half in this competition this season, which is 523 more than any other side. A remarkable 74% of their completed passes have been in the opposition half, the highest percentage by a team in a season on record since 2003-04.
At least Villarreal have shown an ability to attack on the counter. They have had four fast break shots in the 2025-26 Champions League, a tally only bettered by Club Brugge and Liverpool (both five). They have also scored nine La Liga goals via this method of play since the start of last season, including one against Real Betis on Saturday.
Their hopes may rest with a former Arsenal player. Nicolas Pépé has created seven chances in two appearances for Villarreal in the Champions League this season, twice as many as any other player. He is one of only six players to have created at least five chances from open play and completed 5+ dribbles in the competition so far this term.
City’s star man can outweigh any impressive numbers any opposing player can post though. Haaland has scored eight goals in eight UEFA Champions League appearances against Spanish opponents, courtesy of four separate braces. It is the most times one player has scored 2+ goals against La Liga sides in the competition’s history.
Haaland scored both goals in City’s 2-0 win over Everton on Saturday too, taking his tally for 2025-26 to 17 goals, including the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup in the summer.
Erling Haaland Goals in 2025-26 All Comps
His presence is of paramount importance to the Premier League side, though they only have a few injuries at present. Rayan Aït-Nouri, Rodri and Abdukodir Khusanov will miss this match, as will Pau Cabanes, Logan Costa and Willy Kambwala for the home side. Juan Foyth is also a doubt.
Villarreal are looking for their first win in the Champions League this season. Only once previously have they had fewer than two points after their first three group-stage games in a single edition, which occurred in 2011-12 when their third game saw them lose to City. Even the omens are against them.
Villarreal vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Villarreal and Manchester City’s two previous meetings came in the UEFA Champions League group stage in 2011-12, with the English side winning both fixtures in that edition (2-1 at home, 3-0 away).
The goals across the two games came from Sergio Agüero, Mario Ballotelli plus two from Yaya Touré (and a Carlos Marchena own goal). Just reading those names will stir memories galore for City fans.
They won’t have such fond recollections of their more recent trips to this part of the world though. City have only won four of their 14 away games against Spanish teams in the Champions League, losing seven times.
Villarreal vs Manchester City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is predicting a rare away win for Manchester City against a La Liga club.
Pep Guardiola’s side won the match in 52.6% of the 10,000 simulations. There is slightly more chance of a Villarreal victory (24.0%) than a draw (23.4%) but there isn’t much in it.
Given this is one of his side’s two matches against a club that was in Pot 1 in the draw, any positive result would likely be satisfactory for Marcelino.
Villarreal vs Manchester City Prediction
Villarreal vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Villarreal: Arnau Tenas, Santiago Mouriño, Rafa Marín, Renato Veiga, Alfonso Pedraza, Santi Comesaña, Dani Parejo, Pape Gueye, Nicolas Pépé, Tajon Buchanan, Ayoze Pérez.
Head Coach: Marcelino
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, John Stones, Rúben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly, Nico González, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday in Spain, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Stats Opta
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