If there is one thing I spend too much of my time thinking about, it is Sixers head coach Nick Nurse's substitution patterns.
Readers and followers may know that I have been tracking every substitution the Sixers have made during every game in real time for the last many years. It is a time-consuming process to be sure, but also one that has enabled me to have a better understanding of how NBA rotations are constructed and what challenges coaches are working against as they craft them.
For months, I have resisted the urge to take a stab at outlining Nurse's potential opening night rotation because it was impossible to tell which players would even be available. With two days left before the Sixers begin their 2025-26 regular season in Boston, we finally have a pretty good idea of which pieces will, and will not, play. So, finally, the time has come.
This is somewhat of a prediction, but it is also based on my own views of how different players and lineups might work. I went with a nine-man rotation, which is typically the standard in the regular season these days. The Sixers could expand to 10 guys, but for now nine is the guess here. Up first is a breakdown of which players made my cut, then a graphic with the rotation followed by my methodology, the minutes totals and lineups:
The players
This rotation was crafted under the assumption that all three of Jared McCain, Paul George and Trendon Watford will be out. McCain's absence has already been confirmed, while Watford just became a partial participant in Sixers practice on Sunday and is still working through a hamstring injury and George is reportedly not expected to return to game action just yet.
Joel Embiid played in the Sixers' preseason finale and generated plenty of optimism in the process. Clearly, his left knee responded well, because two days later Embiid participated from "start to finish," Nurse said, in a practice he characterized as "heavy." He appears to firmly be on the verge of suiting up in Boston, and this rotation is crafted with him at center.
Nurse has already confirmed that Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe will make up his starting backcourt after the rookie's convincing preseason and training camp. It leaves two starting spots to be filled, and the expectation should be that Kelly Oubre Jr. fills one of them.
There appears to be a pair finalists for the fifth and final starting job: Adem Bona and Dominick Barlow. Neither was expected to be anywhere near this conversation, but Bona and Embiid are developing a unique dynamic as a two-center combination while Barlow has turned heads at every step over the last few weeks. Barlow will be the pick to start here, but Bona logs more minutes in a role that has suddenly become enormous.
Maximizing skill in the starting lineup would mean one of these spots should belong to Quentin Grimes, but the 25-year-old guard appears primed to begin the season as a reserve. It should not matter all that much. The team's three healthy young guards should each see plenty of run, and Grimes could very well play as many minutes as Edgecombe if not more.
With two spots left and George unavailable, forwards Justin Edwards and Jabari Walker are the favorites by default. Edwards had an inspiring rookie season but disappointed in Summer League and preseason; Walker has had moments in preseason but largely failed to impress. Edwards could be one of this team's long-term keepers and Walker has three years of NBA experience under his belt. It is not difficult to imagine either one contributing.
The rotation
This is what the rotation looks like in the form of a graphic, courtesy of The Hoops Geek, where the first quarter is on the top left, the second quarter is on the top right, the third quarter is on the bottom left and the fourth quarter is on the bottom right:
Screenshot 2025-10-19 at 4.23.23 PM.pngThe Hoops Geek/for PhillyVoice
A breakdown of what all of this actually means for those having difficulty processing all of the colors and bars...
The numbers
Here are the exact results for all nine rotation members in terms of playing time, both for individual halves and the complete game:
Player 1H minutes 2H minutes Total minutes
Tyrese Maxey 20 21 41
VJ Edgecombe 18 15 33
Kelly Oubre Jr. 14 18 32
Dominick Barlow 11 8 19
Joel Embiid 15 17 32
Quentin Grimes 16 16 32
Adem Bona 12 11 23
Justin Edwards 7 7 14
Jabari Walker 7 7 14
It will be explained more later, but Maxey playing in the ballpark of 40 minutes should be expected for now. It is a necessary evil with George and McCain sidelined, and Nurse is perhaps infamous for his willingness to have his key players surpass the rest of the league in playing time. Maxey is a good bet to lead the entire NBA in minutes in 2025-26 if he does not suffer a major injury.
Somewhere in the range of 30 minutes seems right for Embiid off the bat; a lower number is easy to argue in theory but a bit harder to actually pull off in practice right now. Many of his minutes coming with bigs willing to do the dirty work on the glass should help ease his load to some degree.
Grimes may come off the bench, but the Sixers should view him as a sixth starter. His shooting and defensive production are absolutely necessary for this team. Starting him would make a lot of sense, even if alongside Maxey and Edgecombe. Clearly that is not Nurse's intention right now, but those three players should all be on the floor for high-leverage minutes. This rotation plan has them all on the floor to close each half.
The methodology
A collection of goals and notes that were kept in mind as this rotation plan was put together:
• Lineups with Joel Embiid and Adem Bona can work. In order to give them the best chance of producing, though, Nurse should try to maximize the amount of three-point shooting around them. Starting a non-shooter in Bona alongside a pair of suspect shooters in Grimes and Oubre could lead to offensive challenges.
The other arrangement that has gotten plenty of public consideration is the three-guard look with Maxey, Edgecombe and Grimes. That grouping can succeed, too, but it needs rim protection behind it. Perhaps the three guards and two centers make for a perfect match. Embiid and Bona share the floor for one stint in each half under this plan; both of those stints include all three of the guards.
• When the Sixers have all of their high-powered scoring options available, pairing up Maxey and Embiid frequently could be beneficial for both players as they rely on a devastating two-man game. For now, though, there is not enough external shot creation for the Sixers to deviate from their normal pattern of staggering the two stars so that one of them is on the court at all times. Given his condition, using Embiid in shorter stints is the clear play. Maxey has more than enough experience playing a few prolonged stretches.
• Grimes is the third-best player on this team. With McCain out, Grimes is the Sixers' closest thing to a backup point guard. He is on the ball in the two brief spurts where Maxey sits and has Embiid to help him out. Grimes has seemingly played with the ball an enormous amount during practice, preparing him for this sort of role.
• In theory, the Sixers could have Bona play with Embiid more than once per half – or in much longer stints – and slide Andre Drummond into the rotation as another center. If Drummond had not endured a nightmarish 2024-25 season, that idea would be more appealing. For now, his role should merely be backing up Bona on nights when Embiid is out.
• Nearly all of Walker's minutes come with Maxey and Bona on the floor. This is done to maximize Walker's short-roll passing chops, which he discussed excitedly with PhillyVoice earlier this month.
"I like being in that area between the perimeter and the basket," Walker said. "I have the big as a lob [threat] and then I see the weakside corner and things like that. And then there's the floater and the jumpshot. There's so many options. So being a playmaker and things like that, I kind of like being in that position."
The lineups
It is not all that hard to make ballpark estimates for how many minutes each player should log for a team and make sure they add up to 240. It is much harder to construct 48 minutes worth of substitution patterns to ensure a team always has enough offensive and defensive ability on the floor at once.
The Sixers typically end up playing around 20 lineups in a normal game. This plan ends up with 18 units. Here they are, from start to end:
Duration Unit
5:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Oubre Jr., Barlow, Embiid
2:00 Maxey, Grimes, Oubre Jr., Walker, Bona
2:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes, Walker, Bona
3:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes, Bona, Embiid
4:00 Grimes, Edgecombe, Edwards, Barlow, Embiid
1:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Edwards, Barlow, Bona
1:00 Maxey, Oubre Jr., Edwards, Barlow, Bona
1:00 Maxey, Oubre Jr., Edwards, Walker, Bona
2:00 Maxey, Grimes, Oubre Jr., Walker, Bona
3:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes, Oubre Jr., Embiid
5:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Oubre Jr., Barlow, Embiid
4:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes, Bona, Embiid
3:00 Maxey, Oubre Jr., Edwards, Walker, Bona
3:00 Grimes, Oubre Jr., Edwards, Walker, Embiid
1:00 Maxey, Grimes, Edwards, Walker, Bona
2:00 Maxey, Grimes, Oubre Jr., Barlow, Bona
1:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes, Barlow, Bona
5:00 Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes, Oubre Jr., Embiid
So, what can be learned from all of this?
The conclusions
•Even if he is not on the floor when the game tips off, Grimes must play a significant number of minutes and be on the floor in the most important moments. Boston has an incredibly thin frontcourt and will likely use many wing-heavy lineups; whenever the Sixers face such an opponent early in the season they should take advantage of their ability to go small without becoming incredibly vulnerable on defense. The Sixers' best offensive unit with these players is Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes, Oubre and Embiid. That unit is the one closing both halves of this game and playing theoretical crunch time.
• There are going to be lineups that do not have enough shooting – so much that nobody should be surprised if Nurse expands to a 10-man rotation simply for the sake of getting Eric Gordon's gravity on the floor. There is a real case to be made forplaying the veteran sharpshooter early on just to make sure Embiid and Maxey have enough breathing room as they try to torment an opposing defense.
• Oubre has somehow become a polarizing player around these parts, and the veteran swingman certainly comes with flaws. It is possible that in a few months his greatest use is as trade bait. For now, he is vital to what this team is doing as someone capable of defending across three or four positions while also providing high-volume three-point shooting and legitimate rim pressure. His strong defensive track record as a member of the Sixers made this exercise considerably easier. He will be much more important on nights when the Sixers are even less healthy and find themselves desperate for scoring.
• Edwards really struggled in the preseason as a shooter and on the whole, but the Sixers have little choice but to rely on him for bench minutes and hope that he knocks down open looks. A good version of Edwards could give a huge boosts to lineups like the ones he is in during the second quarter of this plan.
• When George does come back, the vast majority of his minutes should be played at power forward. It is the most suitable spot for the nine-time All-Star based on the personnel available to the Sixers. When Maxey, McCain and Grimes are all healthy at once, George should be encouraged to use as much energy as he can on the defensive end, where he actually exceeded expectations by quite a bit last year.
• With Watford still out, the enormity of this moment for Barlow and Walker cannot be understated. Both players are on two-way deals while Watford has a standard deal, so they must go above and beyond to prove they deserve to have their limited days of NBA availability used early – and, eventually, get their deals converted.
• Nurse will not flinch at the concept of playing Maxey this much, but many would. It is unfortunately necessary for now, but when McCain and George return not only can Maxey be closer to 35 minutes than 40, but he could also be paired up with Embiid considerably more often. Maxey and Embiid would both experience tremendous benefits, and a grouping of McCain, Grimes and George should have enough shot creation to keep the Sixers afloat with their two best players on the bench.
Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam
Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice