And just like that, another NBA season is upon us.
The offseason wasn’t as busy as expected, which means that the balance of power is still heavily tilted towards the West.
So, with all but one team trying to win in the loaded conference, how will everything shake out?
Let’s find out.
Championship contenders: inner circle contenders that stand above the rest
Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets
As the only teams that have both a top-5 player and a championship-level supporting cast, one of OKC or Denver will be the next NBA champs. The Thunder’s youth and hunger could see them replicate the 2016 Warriors and reach 70 wins, while the Nuggets’ revamped roster and front office have finally put the Joker in position to make another championship run.
OKC is definitely the betting favorites, but the gap between the two teams isn’t big enough to warrant putting them in separate tiers. Let’s all pray for good health because a potential OKC vs Denver clash could become an instant classic, and should be treated as the real NBA finals.
The dark horses: teams that could make the conference finals if everything breaks right
Houston Rockets , Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, Los Anegels Clippers
These teams should all have hopes of making a deep run, though a finals appearance won’t be in the cards. Houston adding KD had them flirting with being in the OKC/Denver tier before Fred VanVleet’s injury, but his absence could open the door for Amen Thompson to make an All-NBA level leap and still keep the Rockets in the hunt. Minnesota hit their stride during the second half of last season and has discovered a formula that’s led them to back-to-back WCF appearances. Having an older supporting cast could force Ant to carry a heavier burden, but the 24-year-old has improved every year and is used to having people ask him for support.
Speaking of old, the two Unctions down in California should still be heard from — assuming everyone’s knees hold up. The Clippers were the most surprising team last season and got deeper in the offseason, and Kawhi is finally starting the year healthy now that he’s been relieved from tree-planting duties. Lastly, Golden State is out to prove that their 23-8 record with Jimmy isn’t a fluke as the Warriors try and make another run during Steph’s twilight.
Playoff hopefuls: teams in contention for a top 6 seed
Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies
Having a skinny and vengeful Luka should have the Lakers firmly in the hunt for a top 6 seed, but the rest of the roster leaves a lot to be desired. LeBron is already injured and will be turning 41 soon, Dominayton is their one reliable big, and Austin Reaves is the only other player still ascending who could contribute at a star level. Still, Luka’s greatness should allow the Lakers to make the playoffs with ease, although their true contention window hasn’t arrived yet.
Taking a trip down I-10 leads us to the Spurs, the team with a Wemby-sized floor-ceiling gulf in the league this year. The Frenchman might already be a top-5 player, and San Antonio could make a 2024 Houston-type jump and become a 50-win team — assuming he plays 70+ games. However, if Wemby misses time again and Fox fails to regain his All-Star form, the Spurs could be back in the lottery. Given his Eat Pray Love summer and his form in preseason, though, I’m betting on the Alien to finish top-5 in the MVP race and for San Antonio to make their first postseason appearance in the Wembanyama era.
On the other hand, the NBA world has seemingly forgotten about Ja and the Grizzlies, and with good reason. Still, Memphis was the #2 in the West for a large stretch of last year, even with Ja having his worst season since his rookie campaign. The inevitable “Memphis Grizzlies Injury Report” is concerning, but this team is a regular-season wins machine and will continue pumping out Ws consistently.
Play-in fodder: teams who will finish in the 7-10 range
Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers
Ah, here come the confusing teams. Dallas could potentially be a dark horse contender if Kyrie returns, AD stays healthy, and Cooper Flagg makes an immediate impact. Butttt this is the Mavs we’re talking about, and it’s equally (if not more) likely that the veterans continue to miss significant time, and Flagg is the only bright spot on the team. There’s too much talent here to drop them down a tier, but the uncertainty also prevents them from being a top-6 seed.
Portland is another Jekyll and Hyde team that has boom/bust potential. They went 23-18 in the second half of last season on the back of an elite defense and added Jrue Holiday this offseason. I’m a believer that Deni Avdija’s leap is legit, but Scoot’s injury and the aging vets still prevent the Blazers from being a lock to finish in the top-10.
The sphere of sadness: the directionless organizations
Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans
My condolences to those rooting for these teams, as dark days are ahead. The Suns’ superteam experiment ended with one playoff series win in 3 years and an expensive roster that lacks its own picks. Sacramento has assembled their version of the 2014 Nets/2012 Lakers but with even worse players, and the Pelicans are making trades so bad that the guy who finished last in my fantasy league would laugh at them. The one similarity that these franchises all share is poor ownership, and until that changes, it’s hard to see any of them become consistent contenders
Tankapalooza: pretty self-explanatory
The only tanking team in the West, Utah’s biggest contribution to a title race is a potential Markannen trade. There’s no reason why he (or the Jazz) should continue their partnership, although many of Utah’s recent decisions haven’t made much sense. Other than that, enjoy watching Ace Bailey go 15-45 every night while Isaiah Collier puts up 5 assists and 10 turnovers.