Tonight begins the most anticipated season in Houston Rockets history since the 2017-18 season that saw Chris Paul force his way out of Los Angeles for the chance to play with James Harden.
This version of the Rockets doesn’t have a Harden-level superstar, but they have an exciting young core and a head coach that has taken a team that looked hopeless at times to the 2 seed in the Western Conference. That was enough to entice Kevin Durant to put Houston on his preferred list of destinations. Savvy trade work by Rafael Stone in the wake of the aforementioned Harden trade laid the groundwork to bring one of the 10 best players in NBA history to Clutch City and that in turn made Houston tantalizing for free agents like Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela.
There are a couple of flies in the ointment. There always are. The first is that Fred VanVleet, the captain of Houston’s offense and an expert ballhandler, will miss the season with an ACL tear. There will be more of a strain offensively on Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and as-of-yet unproven Reed Sheppard. But this trial by fire might unlock a new level for the young players.
The other fly is Houston’s opponent tonight. With great expectations come great matchups, and the NBA schedule makers must have been licking their lips at the prospect of feeding the hot new team on the block to the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder on the night they receive their championship rings and raise a banner. Adding to the story is Durant’s history with the franchise, though that’s mostly been put in the past since both parties have been successful without the other. Sometimes, breakups are best for everyone. It just takes a while to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
The Thunder have people talking about a dynasty, and it’s easy to see why. They’ve locked up MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams to long-term deals. Alex Caruso (four years remaining) and Aaron Wiggins (three years), key parts of their playoff rotation, are around for a while. Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams have two years left with team options on the back end. They have three players in Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, and Kenrich Williams who could hit free agency after this season but all have team options with the possibility of extending them too. Their first round pick last year, Nikola Topic, didn’t play a single minute last season due to injury. And speaking of draft picks, the Thunder own about 800 of them, including Houston’s top-4 protected pick in 2026 (the Russell Westbrook trade will finally be dead after that).
The point is that the Thunder are equipped to be really good for the foreseeable future, and if things go off the rails or any of their stars get grumpy, they have the picks to trade for another great player or five. Remember, this team won 68 games last season and they weren’t lucky with health. Holmgren missed 50 games, SGA missed six, Jalen Williams missed 13, Hartenstein missed 25, and Caruso missed 28.
The Thunder could easily win 70 games this season. If Jalen Williams (J-Dub for the initiated) can get back to full health with his wrist and they stay healthy, 75 games is on the table. I typed that with a straight face. And if you think they might suffer from a championship hangover, think again. They’ll probably take the confidence they gained from last year and become menaces. No one played harder last season than OKC. Even the 73-win Warriors team had nights where they cruised to victory on talent alone. The Thunder will have more talent than everyone they play and work harder than their opponets. Their physical brand of defense has never been called consistently by the referees, and they know it. They can also survive an injury to anyone besides SGA. Even then, they’re still probably a top 4 team in the West.
So be excited about this Houston Rockets team. But don’t take too much from tonight. It could get ugly in a hurry.
Dorian Finney-Smith: OUT (ankle)
Jae’Sean Tate: OUT (ankle)
The Line (as of this post)
Looking ahead because we can
The home opener on Friday against the Detroit Pistons