I’m going to start this with a contrarian take: The Pacers are going to miss Tyrese Haliburton this season.
I’m sorry if you weren’t ready to hear that the guy who had an all-time clutch shooting playoff run — the type everyone believes their favorite player once had — was critical to Indiana’s success last season.
It’s easy to forget where this season started. Indiana and Haliburton struggled — partially due to Haliburton’s injuries — and didn’t look anything like the team the Boston Celtics said was more dangerous than everyone thought after sweeping them in the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals.
By the end of this year’s playoff run, the conversation had gone from whether Haliburton was overrated to whether he was a superstar. Everyone who underestimated him and the Pacers looked like damned fools. Then, it happened, with that feeling of a star player’s career-altering injury being too familiar for Indiana’s fans.
Now that we’ve gotten past the fact that the Pacers’ offensive rating was more than 10 points better with him on the court (according to databallr.com) in the playoffs and that he will be dearly missed, it’s time to talk about who will be missing his high-assist/low-turnover brand of basketball the most this season.
Worth reading Caitlin Cooper’s Basketball, She Wrote post on how the Pacers will adjust to the absence of Haliburton, as she highlights some of the analytics and stats that showed how the Pacers’ breakneck pace was driven by Haliburton’s vision and accuracy. Indiana can try to replace him, but Haliburton’s play is something that seems unlikely to replicate, even with an egalitarian style of basketball being preached and practiced by the team. As she highlights, most of Indiana’s issues will stem not only from Haliburton not drawing the attention of defenders, but also forcing a shuffling of roles that players didn’t have to occupy as often with Tyrese in the rotation.
What we can expect is Indiana trying to find ways to do so, but without the same finesse, skill, and confidence that Haliburton brings to the floor.
Pascal Siakam
Siakam’s skill set is complementary to someone with greater gravity. That person was Haliburton. He is an All-Star-level talent, but one best suited as a grinding change to a playmaker’s typical arsenal of shots and passes that peels the lid off a defense.
The reason he can post-up smaller defenders without drawing help defenders is because Indiana surrounded him with shooters and a playmaker that made every one of them a threat to score off assists or hockey assists.
Tyrese kept a lot of defenses honest in a way that few in the NBA can, let alone his own teammates. Pascal’s usage is destined to go up, but likely at the expense of his efficiency. Let’s be clear, though, he is still going to score and doesn’t need a lot of help to do so, but the quality of those attempts will suffer without his fellow star on the court. There will be fewer open threes or direct lines to the basket this season for Siakam.
One way this will show is a heavier dose of Siakim handling the ball, particularly in clutch situations for the Pacers. Instead of watching Haliburton work miracles, it’s hard not to picture Pascal as the one pulling the trigger unless Nesmith or Nembhard develop a consistent clutch gene that gives them a reason to take those shots regularly.
This also means a lot more of Pascal grinding his way to the rim instead of waiting on the arc for a pass. His rim percentage went up without Hali on the floor last year, so there’s little reason to believe that he won’t spend more time there in the upcoming season.
He’s the right player to lead the Pacers through the wilderness this year, but it is unrealistic to expect him or anyone else on this team to replace all the things Haliburton does as a leader on the floor.
Andrew Nembhard
Most of the Pacers’ performance will be hindered by Tyrese’s absence on offense, but ironically, Andrew Nembard might be more affected on the defensive end. Not because Indiana will miss Haliburton’s defense, but because Nembhard will need to pick up more of the slack offensively in his absence. Defense is so much about effort, but it’s a lot to ask Nembhard to take on more offensive duties while maintaining the same level of defense.
When their starting point guard wasn’t on the floor, Nembhard is expected to take over some of the playmaking duties and shoot more. Those extra touches mean more points, but they don’t come as organically or efficiently as they do with Haliburton.
That showed up statistically in a 5.7% drop in his true shooting percentage when he played without Haliburton last year. He was ineffective with a -8.4 net rating in the nearly 400 regular-season minutes he played without Hali, according to CourtSketch.com. Hardly anyone’s statistics looked better without Haliburton, but Nembhard’s regular-season numbers took one of the biggest hits.
The season presents an opportunity for Nemby to evolve, but that won’t come without growing pains and with worse results for the Pacers in the meantime.
Enjoy this example of both where Nembhard’s smaller size limits him against larger defenders, but also how his confidence rarely wavers.
Aaron Nesmith
The Pacers’ surprise playoff stars — to the casual NBA fan at least — were both Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith due to the fact that both had their moments as shooters and also because they were able to slow down opponents on defense. Whereas Nembhard is more built to stifle guards, Nesmith is built to deal with the more forceful efforts of larger guards and forwards. Like Nembhard, he too will be asked to do more offensively this year.
However, even in games where Haliburton did not play, we saw Nesmith continue to play in a more complementary style. Those games saw Nesmith waiting for his moments to shoot 3-pointers or to attack the rim.
While the Pacers tended to drive the ball more to the basket, take fewer assisted 3-pointers, and turn the ball over more, most of that wasn’t caused by a big change in how Nesmith played, at least statistically. How that could change this season, with Mathurin playing more minutes and Indiana dealing with the absence of Myles Turner as well, is yet to be seen, but Nesmith’s role might be the least affected.
Bennedict Mathurn
Bennedict Mathurn represents something different on the Pacers that almost goes against the entire ethos of their fast-paced, quick-passing, unselfish style of basketball.
He’s a little bit selfish, but in the right ways.
Mathurin’s path to the basket could go right through a defender’s chest, and he is more than glad to make it a painful experience for opponents. Where everyone else plays paint-to-great in a way that often sees a pass whipped out to a shooter or another driver, Mathurin’s greatness in the paint comes from his ability to finish through contact and draw fouls.
Then there’s stuff like this. A solid bit of defense followed by a determined attack on the rim. Wouldn’t advise this as a regular thing, but it’s a good example of what Mathurin gives the Pacers: Someone who can drive to the rim, draw fouls, and finish off the play whether one is called or not.
This year, he has been thrust into the starting lineup with Haliburton out. This will ultimately serve as a test to see whether he can adapt his game to be another cog in Rick Carlisle’s machine or if he stays in his sixth-man role that he occupied last year.
That was one where he was allowed to play in a way that favored an aggressive attack designed to draw contact and not simply hit the next open teammate.
Let’s be clear, though: It’s not as if he dribbles the ball out and takes a shot. What gives Mathurin a different feel is that he is the outlier among Indiana’s wings and guards when it comes to passing on drives. He has the lowest passing percentage, passing around a quarter of the time, compared to around 32.4% on the low end (Nesmith) and 66.7% on the high end with Haliburton. In Indiana’s paint-to-great philosophy, that is noticeably different
It’s hard to see why the Pacers wouldn’t, style be damned, commit to the Canadian guard for the future, but exactly how much his next contract is worth to the Pacers — and other teams —could very well be determined by two factors: How close he comes to showing off the flashes of greatness that make him look like a potential All-Star level player at times, and how well he melds into the Pacers overall system.
T.J. McConnell
I’m not sure what to expect, other than maybe more minutes for McConnell. With Mathurin now in a starting role, there are more minutes to be soaked up by the reserve guards. I can’t picture Carlisle giving the rookies substantial minutes, but until I see Carlisle deploying guards differently, I’d imagine the Pacers wish to keep McConnell in his role as a havoc-causing, change-of-pace point guard.
In his role as the Shark in the Water, TJMC’s best work came when he could hound opposing ball-handlers while Nash-ing his way into the paint when he is in control. While he is Indiana’s oldest player, he is best suited for bench work where he doesn’t need to pace himself.
He likely will be expected to play more minutes, but if that happens, it will be a detriment to what he does so well.
Obi Toppin
While Nembhard, Nesmith, and Siakam have ways to create their own opportunities, Obi Toppin’s scoring typically came through a mixture of drives, cuts to the basket, and 3-pointers.
Toppin played in a number of mixed lineups, though several of his best were with Haliburton during the regular season. Even when working with T.J. McConnell and a more reserve-heavy lineup, Obi’s best work was on the receiving end of passes as he cut or came off screens, in terms of points.
The question this year is how his teammates can continue to do what he does well and how much more difficult it will be to maximize those strengths without Haliburton. Will the guards be able to serve him up the same way? Or will they be unable to while adjusting to their own changing roles?
A thought on Myles Turner and who will replace him at center this season
We don’t need to relitigate his decision, but he is going from a point guard who set fire to his new team and everyone else for Kevin Porter Jr. Long term he very well may be the answer to the question of who will miss Hali the most.
While Giannis Antetokounmpo’s gravity will afford him some extra room, it’s hard to picture Porter Jr. giving him the same chances as Haliburton. Porter Jr. is an okay passer with 5.4 assists a game as a backup and one start against the Pacers in the playoffs last year, but those passes weren’t anything that made you believe he can rip the lid off a defense on his own and his decision making as a lead guard is lacking.
It will be interesting to see how he fits in with Antetokounmpo, but I’m not convinced Porter Jr. or the Greek will be looking his way, as Haliburton did with him. Antetokounmpo’s first two assists in the playoff series last season were for former starting center Brook Lopez, but that was the end of the front-court synergy.
For the Pacers assortment of centers, Jay Huff won’t be getting the same pick-and-pop action from Haliburton that he would likely thrive with. He will still get looks as the guards and Siakam draw attention, but it won’t be the same.
So far, we’ve seen that no one is ready to lock down those minutes. Huff so far looks like the backup center he was in Memphis, Isaiah Jackson can’t stop fouling, and Tony Bradley and James Wiseman haven’t shown anything to give confidence either.
At this point, it’s clear that Indiana doesn’t have an answer at center, and despite Turner’s lack of rebounding, he occupied a role that isn’t easily replaced. While Haliburton makes everyone’s life easier, the centers both here and gone may miss him the most.
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