Centre-back has been a hot topic of debate among Leeds United fans but Daniel Farke highlighted the good work of Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk on Saturday.
Leeds United can count themselves a little unlucky to have conceded 13 goals so far with underlying data suggesting they are among the Premier League’s strongest defences.
Daniel Farke’s side were twice breached at Turf Moor on Saturday as Burnley picked up their second 2-0 win of the season against a fellow newly-promoted side. Goals either side of half-time from Lesley Ugochukwu and Loum Tchaouna ensured all three points remained in Lancashire with Leeds unable to get on the scoresheet despite their dominance.
Tchaouna’s goal in particular seemed to come from nowhere, with the substitute winger firing in a wonderful effort from 25 yards. Leeds were not blameless, with Pascal Struijk giving away possession carelessly while neither Anton Stach nor Ethan Ampadu applied the necessary pressure to Burnley’s goalscorer.
But there is also an air of misfortune as to how a seemingly manageable situation turned into 2-0 in the blink of an eye and the swinging of a ferocious left boot. According to Opta, Tchaouna’s goal had an Expected Goals (xG) recording of 0.025, meaning in that scenario a shot would essentially be expected to go in once every 40 attempts.
That effort was the 13th to go beyond a Whites goalkeeper this season, with only four teams conceding more, but a deeper look into the numbers would suggest Farke’s side have been unfortunate in that sense. Only three teams - Arsenal, Newcastle United and Manchester City - have recorded a lower Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) than Leeds’ 8.58xG according to Opta, essentially painting them as a top-four defence in terms of xG.
With 13 goals conceded, Leeds have now let in 4.42 more goals than xG would expect, which is the league’s third biggest difference behind only West Ham and Wolves. Teams who face Farke’s side also have the second highest conversion rate across the division at 16.46 per cent, suggesting the Whites have fallen victim to elite-level finishing more than most.
One potential explanation for such a difference could be that Leeds are conceding few chances, but the majority of them are of high quality and therefore a high xG value. That is not how things are playing out however, with the average xG value of a shot faced being just 0.11, once again among the league’s lowest.
Leeds United keeping big chances at bay despite recent lapses
Those good defensive numbers will be partly down to how Leeds’ games have played out, of course, with opponents happy to defend leads after scoring first and therefore not attacking too much. Burnley, for example, scored a well-worked opener before absorbing pressure and producing a moment of brilliance.
But Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth, two impressive attacks, were on the hunt for goals a long way into the second-half, or in the Cherries’ case right until the final whistle. Equally, Everton, Newcastle and Wolves were all kept quiet while chasing goals, either for a point or three.
Simply put, Leeds are conceding fewer chances than a lot of their bottom-half peers, and they are not conceding particularly high quality chances in the most part either. A lot of their recent concessions are very avoidable, and could have been defended better, but there is also a case to be made that luck hasn’t been on their side when defensive cracks have emerged.
Read More
Unfortunately for Leeds, those slight lapses have been brutally punished and it’s why they’ve conceded more goals than the underlying data would expect, goals that have seen points slip away. Tchaouna’s effort was unlikely to ever go in but it would have been less likely, had someone picked the winger up.
Equally, both of Spurs’ goals might have been avoided had Sean Longstaff not lost possession, Gabriel Gudmundsson not slipped up or Struijk got just a centimetre closer to either shot-taker. And those fine margins are why clamour for Jaka Bijol continues to intensify.
The Slovenian international is yet to play a single Premier League minute following a £15million summer move from Udinese and must be in line to get his chance soon. Although Farke insisted after Burnley he would not make changes ‘for the sake of it’ and Leeds’ underlying defensive numbers suggest a lot of good is being done by those currently starting.
Continue Reading