The Club World Cup champions look to climb the UEFA Champions League standings after getting off the mark against Benfica. We look ahead to Wednesday’s clash with our Chelsea vs Ajax prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Ajax: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea strong favourites at Stamford Bridge, where they are assigned a 71.2% win probability to Ajax’s 12.6%.
Ajax have lost their last five matches in major European competitions, and the Eredivisie giants could lose six in a row for the first time since September 1989.
Chelsea are the only side yet to give a single minute to a player aged 30+ in the UEFA Champions League this season. Only two English sides have gone three or more games without fielding a player in their 30s – Liverpool in 2002-03 and Tottenham in 2016-17 (both six).
When Chelsea were beaten 3-1 by Brighton and Hove Albion in late September, the Blues had gone almost a month without a Premier League or UEFA Champions League victory and the pressure appeared to be building on head coach Enzo Maresca.
However, a run of three straight victories either side of the international break, against Benfica in Europe and Liverpool and Nottingham Forest domestically, has them back on track ahead of Wednesday’s meeting with Ajax.
Chelsea brought about the end of Ange Postecoglou’s short-lived reign at the City Ground on Saturday, winning 3-0 with goals from Josh Acheampong, Pedro Neto and Reece James. Nineteen-year-old Acheampong is the second teenager to score for Chelsea in the Premier League this season, following Estêvão’s winner against Liverpool, making the Blues the first team to have multiple teenage scorers this term.
And their young guns have shouldered plenty of responsibility in the Champions League. Indeed, Chelsea are the only team yet to give a single minute to a player aged 30 or older in the competition this season. Only two English sides have gone three or more games without fielding a player in their 30s – Liverpool in 2002-03 and Tottenham in 2016-17 (both six).
Chelsea’s league-phase campaign started with a 3-1 defeat at Bayern Munich, but their narrow win over Benfica maintained their imperious home form in Europe’s elite competition.
Chelsea have lost just two of their last 12 Champions League matches at Stamford Bridge (nine wins, one draw), both of which were against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals in 2021-22 and 2022-23.
The Blues are unbeaten in their last 12 group- or league-stage games at home (eight wins, four draws) since losing to Valencia under Frank Lampard in September 2019.
Enzo Fernández could return after missing the win over Forest. The Argentine’s regular midfield partner, Moisés Caicedo, has made nine tackles in the Champions League this season, with only Eintracht Frankfurt’s Nathaniel Brown (11) and Copenhagen’s Lukas Lerager (10) making more.
But Cole Palmer is still out injured, and Chelsea will also be without fellow forward João Pedro, who must serve a one-match European ban after being sent off against Benfica. One of the Brazilian’s six previous major European goals was netted against Ajax, for Brighton in the UEFA Europa League in September 2023.
While Chelsea are 18th in the 36-team table, Ajax are second from bottom, with only Kazakh champions Kairat below them after defeats to Inter (0-2) and Marseille (0-4). Ajax are also fourth in the Eredivisie table following a damaging 2-0 loss to AZ Alkmaar on Saturday.
Head coach John Heitinga could now make a piece of unwanted Champions League history. He is one of four men to lose his first two games in the competition as both a player and a manager at a single club, alongside Mark van Bommel at PSV, Ivan Leko at Club Brugge and Krunoslav Jurcic at Dinamo Zagreb.
Nobody has ever lost their first three Champions League matches with one club as both a player and a coach, and Heitinga could become the first.
Though Ajax were trounced by Marseille on Matchday 2, there was one positive to take as they gave Jorthy Mokio a Champions League debut at the age of 17 years and 214 days. That made him the second-youngest player to represent Ajax in the competition, and the 52nd teenager to do so – the most of any club.
Chelsea vs Ajax Head-to-Head
This will be the third European meeting between Chelsea and Ajax, having previously met twice in the group stage of the 2019-20 Champions League.
The Blues won 1-0 in Amsterdam that season, before the teams drew 4-4 in the return fixture at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea were 4-1 down in that game, with Tammy Abraham and Kepa Arrizabalaga both scoring own goals, but red cards for Daley Blind and Joël Veltman helped them recover to earn a point.
Ajax are winless in their last 11 major European matches against English teams (two draws, nine defeats) since a 1-0 win over Tottenham in April 2019, in a Champions League semi-final tie that they memorably lost due to a Lucas Moura hat-trick in the second leg.
Ajax have failed to score a single goal in any of their last five such games, since a Mohammed Kudus goal against Liverpool in September 2022.
The Dutch giants have also lost their last five games in major European competitions (three in last season’s Europa League, two in the Champions League this campaign). They have not lost six such games in a row since doing so between April 1988 and September 1989.
This will be the seventh time that Chelsea have faced a team who are on a five-game losing run in Europe, and the Blues have won the previous six by an aggregate score of 14-0.
The only English teams to lose against a side on such a run are Manchester City in 1970, against Linfield in the Cup Winners’ Cup, and Manchester United in 2019, against Astana in the Europa League.
Chelsea vs Ajax Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea strong favourites for Wednesday’s game, assigning them a 71.2% chance of victory.
Ajax were only victorious in 12.6% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 data-led simulations, with 16.2% finishing level.
Chelsea vs Ajax Prediction
With a 5% chance of lifting the trophy, Chelsea are the model’s eighth favourites to win the Champions League, while they make the last 16 in 79% of projections. Ajax only do so in 2.7%, while they fail to even make the knockout-stage play-offs in 87.5%.
Chelsea vs Ajax Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Marc Cucurella, Roméo Lavia, Moisés Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Facundo Buonanotte, Alejandro Garnacho, Tyrique George.
Head Coach: Enzo Maresca
Ajax: Vítezslav Jaros, Lucas Rosa, Ko Itakura, Youri Baas, Jorthy Mokio, Davy Klaassen, Youri Regeer, Kenneth Taylor, Oliver Edvardsen, Mika Godts, Oscar Gloukh.
Head Coach: John Heitinga
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at Stamford Bridge, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Stats Opta
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