Every Manchester United game under Rúben Amorim has felt like a potential crisis.
A loss sparks talk of sackings, or a win brings only brief relief until the next fixture.
While this past weekends win over Liverpool represents the highest of highs, the Red Devils season so far has been defined by inconsistency.
As analysts, we look for patterns beneath that volatility.
One clear trend has emerged: Manchester United win more and defend better when Casemiro starts.
This Manchester United tactical analysis article and Casemiro scout report examines the data and tactical dynamics behind that pattern to understand why Casemiro’s presence increases Amorim’s sides likelihood of getting a positive result, despite the system’s deeper flaws.
Casemiro Impact On Results
Let’s start with the basics.
When we look at Manchester United’s record with Casemiro in the starting XI, the difference is immediately noticeable.
United have played six matches with the Brazilian anchoring the midfield, winning four (vs Burnley, Chelsea, Sunderland and Liverpool), drawing one against Fulham, and losing only once, at home to Arsenal.
That Arsenal defeat, which came via a set-piece, was arguably one of United’s better performances this season.
When Casemiro has not started, the contrast has been stark.
In those matches, United were comprehensively beaten 3–0 by Manchester City and 3–1 by Brentford, showing a worrying lack of defensive control and midfield balance.
The EFL Cup loss to Grimsby Town also came without Casemiro in the team, though this match has not been included in the data set due to the clear discrepancy between a Premier League side and an EFL League Two opponent, which would distort the overall numbers.
In both Premier League matches, Casemiro did not start, and Manchester United conceded three goals.
While wins and losses never tell the entire story, the pattern here is difficult to ignore: United appear far more stable and likely to win when Casemiro plays.
Data Analysis: The Casemiro Effect On Manchester United
The statistical evidence across seven league fixtures under Amorim paints a consistent picture: Manchester United are a more balanced and controlled team whenever Casemiro is on the pitch.
In the five games he played significant minutes, United averaged 1.93 expected goals for (xG) and conceded just 1.09 xG against.
In open play, that translates to 1.15 xG created versus 0.48 conceded, a clear positive balance of +0.67 per match.
When Casemiro is unavailable, the data tells a very different story.
In the two fixtures he missed, United’s defensive structure declined sharply, with open-play xG conceded rising to 1.30 on average and total xG against climbing to 2.00.
The Brentford game, played without him, was the most extreme example: Manchester United generated 2.08 xG (including a Bruno Fernandes penalty that heavily skews the figure) but allowed 2.02 in return, with 3.03 xGOT faced, which is the highest total against Amorim’s side all season.
Within matches, the on/off splits underline just how much control he provides.
When Casemiro was substituted or sent off, opponents began generating shots of higher quality, while United’s own attacking rhythm flattened.
It’s important to note the influence of game state in those numbers, for instance, in the Burnley match, Burnley registered 0.00 xG after Casemiro was withdrawn simply because they were sitting deep and defending a draw, while United were chasing a winner.
Similarly, in the Manchester City fixture, Casemiro was introduced when United were already 3–0 down, at which point City had little need to attack with intensity.
Those situations inevitably affect the underlying data, but a clear pattern still emerges when viewed across all fixtures: United’s control metrics improve consistently with Casemiro on the pitch.
Casemiro’s influence is also visible in the type of chances each side creates.
When he plays, United’s opponents rely heavily on set pieces or second-phase opportunities while they struggle to find clean routes through the centre of the pitch.
Without him, open-play chance creation against United almost triples.
Odegaard receiving in space - Casemiro trying to recover centrally to stop the transition
Odegaard receiving in space Casemiro trying to recover centrally to stop the transition
Casemiro gets back to his zone 14 - Slows Odegaard down - forcing him to take more touches
Casemiro gets back to his zone 14 Slows Odegaard down forcing him to take more touches
Casemiro slows Odeegaard down and wins the ball back in Casemiro's zone 14!
Casemiro slows Odeegaard down and wins the ball back in zone 14!
In attacking terms, United’s expected goals remain relatively stable regardless of his presence, but the context of those chances changes.
With Casemiro anchoring the midfield, the team’s attacking moves develop through structured progression and sustained pressure; without him, they rely more on broken transitions and reactive moments.
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