Washington Wizards center Alex Sarr dunks on the Toronto Raptors in game one of the Wizards preseason.
Washington Wizards center Alex Sarr dunks on the Toronto Raptors in game one of the Wizards preseason.
NBAE via Getty Images
In their third offseason in the project to rebuild the Washington Wizards, Michael Winger, Will Dawkins, and Travis Schlenk haven’t yet begun exiting the Deconstruction Highway. But signs for the offramp might be in sight — assuming, of course, they’re not for an out-of-service rest area.
As should be expected for a team that won just 18 games, there was some roster churn.
There were a few other moves involving fringe players but nothing likely to have much impact on the team’s fortunes this season. Which feels kinda redundant to write.
Like last season, the team has two primary goals:
Lose a lot of games to maximize odds of getting a top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Help their legion of young players improve enough to be part of a winning team in a few years.
Both goals come with challenges. Losing a ton of games doesn’t guarantee a high pick. Last season, the Utah Jazz finished with the worst record, and Washington the second worst. They picked fifth and sixth respectively — in both cases, literally as far down as league rules could have them pick.
As for player development, the team has invested in the coaching, training, staff and resources players need to improve. CJ McCollum — with a dozen NBA seasons on the odometer — said the Wizards are the best organized franchise he’s seen.
Will it pay off on the court? It depends on the players. Will they put in the work on their bodies and games? Will they focus on the “right” things to become quality players or prioritize other things like money, fame, or lifestyle? Will they get lucky with health, physical and mental? Will they be able to develop good habits while getting beat night after night?
These are questions that have to be answered player by player. The best developmental coach in the world can’t lift weights for a youngster. Or give full effort on the player’s behalf in skills drills. Or push down ego or sublimate angst about that next contract. Each guy needs to figure that out for himself.
And there’s a bonus challenge: The 2024-25 Wizards were even weaker than their record. It’s long established that scoring margin is a better measure of team strength than record. Last season, the Wizards had the third worst scoring margin in NBA history.
2025-26 Player Forecasts
These forecasts use my Player Production Average (PPA) metric. PPA is an all-around rating tool that credits players for things they do that help a team win, and debits for things that don’t — each in proportion to how individual players contribute to NBA wins and losses. PPA is pace neutral and includes accounting for defense, role and the level of competition a player faces when he’s on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Below are results from four different forecast approaches: one using my Statistical Doppelgänger Machine (DOPP), another using a predicted PPA based on an age-adjusted career curve (dubbed MILK in honor of sports economist David Berri, who wore that NBA players, “…age like milk…”), a simple weighted three-year average PPA (SIMP) and another that applies an aging adjustment to that weighted three-year average (SAGE).
I estimated minutes by using a weighted average of each player’s minutes in recent seasons, as well as my best guess at each player’s role in the team’s rotation this season.
Last PPA = PPA last season
DOPP = forecasted PPA using the Doppelgänger approach
MILK = forecasted PPA using last season’s PPA and an age adjustment
SIMP = forecasted PPA using a “simple” weighted three-year average PPA
SAGE = forecasted PPA using a “simple” weighted three-year average and an age adjustment
BLEND = forecasted PPA using an average of the four approaches above
The *** represents my best guess of which forecast is most probable for each individual.
Bub Carrington
Bub Carrington
Bub Carrington
NBAE via Getty Images
Carrington played all 82 games and led all rookies in minutes last season. His actual performance wasn’t bad for a 19-year-old picked 14th overall. With Poole and Smart gone, Carrington figures to get lots of minutes. What does he need to do to be better? Some of everything, especially getting stronger, making shots, producing more paint touches and upping the defensive effectiveness.
Last PPA: 59
DOPP: 84
MILK: 65
SIMP: 59
SAGE: 65
BLEND: 68***
CJ McCollum
CJ McCollum
CJ McCollum
NBAE via Getty Images
Acquired in a deal that was truly about getting out of Poole’s contract and having an ocean of cap space sooner rather than later, McCollum is a terrific leader and might still have some game. If he plays well, the Wizards may be able to swap him for draft picks and a bad contract. If he’s closer to average — like he was last season — he’s probably a post-trade deadline buyout candidate. Until then, he’ll do all the savvy veteran leadership stuff.
Last PPA: 110
DOPP: 100***
MILK: 86
SIMP: 125
SAGE: 98
BLEND: 98
Khris Middleton
Khris Middleton
Khris Middleton
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Middleton is the declining old guy and terrific leader on an expiring contract they acquired at the 2025 trade deadline instead of the 2025 offseason. The irony: the Milwaukee Bucks would have been better off last season (and probably into the future) by keeping Middleton and the first round pick they gave up to get Kyle Kuzma. Yes, Middleton was better. Don’t worry — Middleton isn’t going to help the Wizards win more games than they want. He has some game, but he’s not that good. Plus, he’s not likely to stay healthy enough to play major minutes. My forecast guesstimates him at just 1,032 minutes this season.
Last PPA: 116
DOPP: 111***
MILK: 90
SIMP: 125
SAGE: 98
BLEND: 106
Bilal Coulibaly
Bilal Coulibaly
Bilal Coulibaly
NBAE via Getty Images
Coulibaly is one of the young guys who could transform the franchise’s trajectory by making The Leap. His start to Season Three is delayed by a thumb injury suffered over the summer playing for Team France. C’est la vie. His rookie season just barely cleared replacement level in my PPA metric. Last season, he improved more than my age-progression curves predicted, though his 75 was still well short of even average. This season, the MILK method thinks he’ll make another significant jump. The other methods…not so much. Defensively, he’s already good. On offense, everything needs work — shooting, ball handling, playmaking, aggression. The time missed due to injury worries me.
Last PPA: 75
DOPP: 88
MILK: 109***
SIMP: 67
SAGE: 97
BLEND: 90
Alex Sarr
Alex Sarr
Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
Sarr was the second overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, and he proceeded to have one of the least efficient offensive seasons…well…ever. That’s despite apparent skills and confidence — he kept hoisting threes (and twos) like he believed the next five were all going in. His length, mobility, and awareness should make him a defensive stalwart. On offense, he has to start making shots.
Last PPA: 77
DOPP: 101***
MILK: 85
SIMP: 77
SAGE: 85
BLEND: 87
Corey Kispert
Corey Kispert
Corey Kispert
NBAE via Getty Images
Kispert works hard, and it feels like he’s improving — especially if you listen to Chris Miller and Drew Gooden — except it hasn’t really shown in the numbers. His PPA dropped each of the past two seasons. He’s alleged to be a great shooter, and I want to believe, but the three-point percentage isn’t good enough to elicit the panic attacks in opposing defenses his teammates could use. He’s someone they should be looking to trade.
Last PPA: 57
DOPP: 62***
MILK: 58
SIMP: 68
SAGE: 69
BLEND: 64
Kyshawn George
Kyshawn George
Kyshawn George
Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
Based on preseason and the visible addition of muscle, George — to my eye anyway — seems the most likely to improve in ways that defy expectations. The forecasting ritual, which includes examining the history of players like each of these guys, was a bit sobering. For example, all of Sarr’s top 10 comps improved. For Coulibaly, it was 9-in-10. For George, just 6-in-10. Each of the two had comps who became stars. For George, the comps topped out at pretty good. The Wizards need someone like George — a late first round pick — to break out and become good. Great would be nice. I’m hoping it’ll be George, though I have my doubts.
Last PPA: 53
DOPP: 58
MILK: 69***
SIMP: 53
SAGE: 69
BLEND: 62
Cam Whitmore
Cam Whitmore
Cam Whitmore
NBAE via Getty Images
Whitmore was a promising prospect entering the NBA draft (I had him ranked 8th overall in YODA) who inexplicably plummeted to the Houston Rockets, who picked him 20th overall. After just two seasons, the Rockets gave him to the Wizards for a pair of second round picks. Still just 21-years-old, Whitmore is an explosive athlete who will probably score in bunches. Whether he scores efficiently, defends, rebounds, or passes…that’s another conversation. If he hits, he has the physical ability to accelerate Washington’s rebuild timeline.
Last PPA: 67
DOPP: 86***
MILK: 97
SIMP: 71
SAGE: 103
BLEND: 89
Justin Champagnie
Justin Champagnie
Justin Champagnie
Getty Images
I’m in the tank for Champagnie. I love the rags-to-riches narrative, and I think he’s actually a good player. Last season, the team improved when they traded Kuzma and turned many of his minutes over to Champagnie. He’s not excellent at any one thing — he’s just a solid player who can probably contribute. I would not be surprised if he ends up in a trade package to a good team that needs depth and ends up being one of those “surprising” contributors during a deep playoffs run. It feels like Washington wants to prioritize other players, which could limit his minutes.
Last PPA: 114
DOPP: 111***
MILK: 122
SIMP: 89
SAGE: 95
BLEND: 104
Tre Johnson
Tre Johnson
Tre Johnson
Getty Images
Johnson was Washington’s prize for posting the second worst record in the NBA last season. He’s young, and unlike most of his teammates, can really shoot the ball. We’ll see about the rest of his game. In preseason and summer league action, I was moderately concerned about his loose ball handling (fixable) and more worried about his lack of vertical pop when attacking the paint. That said, I think he’s going to be good in a few years. And let’s emphasize “in a few years.” Nineteen year olds typically don’t make much of an impact as rookies, which is also the case for sixth picks. Patience will be necessary.
Forecasted PPA: 65
Tristan Vukcevich
Tristan Vukcevich
Tristan Vukcevich
NBAE via Getty Images
When doing these forecasts, my practice is usually to forecast the top 10 and put the rest of the roster into a morass of what I call in my spreadsheet “remnant minutes,” which are included at replacement level. Given how unsettled the team’s rotation is, as well as the likely time missed by The Old Guys, the Wizards are likely to go a little deeper. So, I’m adding an 11th player. While they’re stylistically very different, the overall impact of playing Vukcevic or playing Bagley is pretty similar. Vukcevic is a shooter and sometimes creative passer who has defensive challenges. Bagley can’t shoot but is a bully on the offensive glass and iffy defender. I think they want to play Vukcevic. We’ll see.
Last PPA: 66
DOPP: 85***
MILK: 86
SIMP: 63
SAGE: 82
BLEND: 79
Washington’s other rookie, 21st pick Will Riley, is in that “remnant minutes” group along with AJ Johnson, Malaki Branham, Anthony Gill, Jamir Watkins, etc. It’s conceivable that circumstances could elevate one or more of these guys, and that they could perform much better than expected. For Riley, while I like the skills, I think he needs time to develop physically before he’s likely to make much impact in the NBA.
2025-26 Prediction
As they did last season, the Wizards are going to lose. A lot. They’ve made the strategic decision to shed salary, keep around some good-guy veterans, and invest playing time and coaching attention on youngsters they hope can be part of something good someday.
The Wizards hope one or more of these guys can become future stars. The forecasting process suggests a tap of the brakes is warranted. Part of the DOPP process includes predicting each player’s peak PPA based on their performance at their current age and the peak production of their most similar players from NBA history. Here’s what the 2025-26 Wizards look like, according to this Predicted Peak method (keep in mind that in PPA, average is 100, higher is better, 165+ to make All-NBA, 200+ to be First Team All-NBA or an MVP candidate):
Khris Middleton — 174 (actual peak: 199 at age 28)
CJ McCollum — 145 (actual peak: 164 at 29)
Alex Sarr — 134
Justin Champagnie — 133
Bilal Coulibaly — 120
Cam Whitmore — 109
Bub Carrington — 106
Tristan Vukcevic — 100
Kyshawn George — 93
Corey Kispert — 86 (current peak: 95 at 23)
Tre Johnson — ??
There are no guarantees, of course. The Wizards may have that future star already on the roster, and it could just take a few years for that potential to become reality. They may be close to drafting one.
But, recovering from losing this much is difficult. The current strategy is different than the patch-and-spackle approach of the current group’s predecessors. It could bring better long-term results. If the youngsters don’t work out, it could also usher in another rebuild and years more losing.
What seems certain for 2025-26 is another trip to the bottom three. Utah and the Brooklyn Nets will challenge them for worst record “honors” and best odds in the draft lottery. I’m doubtful the Charlotte Hornets or Phoenix Suns — both of whom should be bad — will lose enough to crack this ignominious group.
Here are the Wizards’ forecasted wins using the approaches described above:
DOPP: 15.6
MILK: 15.2
SIMP PPA: 14.8
SAGE: 15.2
The BLEND approach predicts 15.8 wins.
If everyone hits their best-case forecast, the team could get to 30 wins. In an “all peaks” scenario (in which everyone reaches their predicted peak), I estimate 35 wins. If everyone matched either their forecasted peak or their previous career peak (whichever is higher), they might get to 39 wins.
My prediction is much the same as last year, which was similar to the year before that: they’re going to lose, they’ll trade veterans for young players and future picks, and they’ll (probably) get a top five pick in the 2026 draft.
Final Prediction: 15-67 and 15th in the East.