Michigan’s football team has a fourth down problem, and head coach Sherrone Moore knows it.
The 25th-ranked Wolverines (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) rank last in FBS on fourth down, converting once on nine attempts. Only one other FBS team has a conversion rate below 20%.
Moore’s team is 0 for its last 6 on fourth down, including 0 for 2 in last week’s 24-7 win over Washington. Michigan overcame two turnovers on downs with a dominant second half, but the failures to move the chains could have been costlier.
On Michigan’s second drive, it faced a fourth-and-1 from the Washington 33-yard line. Receiver Semaj Morgan went in motion before the snap and was wide open in the flat, but he dropped Bryce Underwood’s pass.
Midway through the third quarter in a 7-7 game, the Wolverines had a fourth-and-2 from the opponents’ 6 and tried to run off-tackle with Jordan Marshall. He was swarmed by a pack of Huskies and stopped just short.
“We got to execute,” Moore said Monday of the team’s fourth-down struggles. “There’s the one away from the student section (Marshall’s run), we lost a block. Also, it might be a touchdown (pass intended for Morgan) and then we dropped the ball. We’ve got to fix that as a team and a unit, and we will.”
This year’s troubles on fourth down are an anomaly for Michigan. It finished top-15 nationally in conversion rate the previous three seasons – even last year when the offense finished bottom-10 in FBS in scoring and yards per game.
The good news for the Wolverines is that their poor conversion rate hasn’t affected their record significantly—so far. They are 0-3 on fourth down in their two losses, but all three times they went for it was late in the fourth quarter down multiple scores.
In the Week 2 loss against Oklahoma, they were trailing by nine with 37 seconds left. They ran up the middle with Justice Haynes on a fourth-and-1 from the Sooners’ 48, but he was brought down for a 2-yard loss. Even if Michigan converted, scoring twice in the waning seconds was a longshot.
Against USC on Oct. 11, both of Michigan’s missed opportunities on fourth down were in the final five minutes down three scores. USC blitzed on a fourth-and-5, forcing Underwood to throw off-platform, leading to an errant pass before Morgan finished running his route.
Backup quarterback Jadyn Davis threw an interception on a fourth-and-15 in the last two minutes with the game out of reach.
Fast forward to Saturday’s game against Washington, and Michigan’s experience with fourth-down failures may have influenced Moore’s decision-making.
Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch made a bold decision in the third quarter to go for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 25. Washington converted before punting later on the drive in a 7-7 game.
Moore faced a similar dilemma on Michigan’s next possession. Underwood was stopped inches short of the marker on third down at the Wolverines’ 27. Michigan was 0 for 2 already on fourth down, and another failed conversion would have put Washington in prime position for the go-ahead score.
Instead, Moore punted, and the decision paid off. Linebacker Cole Sullivan intercepted Demond Williams Jr. deep in Washington territory on the first play of the drive, and Michigan capitalized with a touchdown.
“First thing’s field position,” Moore said later Monday night on the “Inside Michigan Football” radio show about the factors that go into making a fourth-down decision. “You always think about where are you on the field and then how is your defense playing in relation to where you are on the field. So at that point, you get it, you’re great. You don’t get it, you got an offense that’s really potent that now is on your 27-yard line, and you just gave them a great opportunity…
“So you got to play complementary football. I know that’s a risk that I’m willing to take when we cross the 50 and sometimes on the minus side, depending on where it is, depending on the score and how we’re playing and how the defense is playing.”
Moore has shown a tendency to be aggressive in the past. When he was serving as interim coach while Jim Harbaugh was suspended during the 2023 national championship season, he kept the offense on the field for three fourth downs, and it converted all three times. That’s also when the team had a veteran offensive line and an experienced quarterback in J.J. McCarthy.
Still, Michigan continues to pride itself on playing physical up front and winning the line of scrimmage. For a coach who regularly preaches “Smashmouth” football, that could add to the temptation of being more aggressive. However, Moore insists he will take the most practical route.
“It can be hard, but you think about the overall thing, what’s best for the team, what’s best for the program,” Moore said of what goes into his fourth down decision-making. “You can’t worry about the outside noise. I think remember saying they’re gonna be mad at me, but we gotta punt (against Washington). Like, ‘Guys, I’m not doing that.’ Everybody on the staff was like, ‘Yes, absolutely.’ The percentages say you can, but yeah, if you don’t get it, then there’s a problem, especially when you didn’t get it earlier in the game, the confidence that you’re doing it. You got to refigure after the game of what you want to do, and we’ll be better after that.”
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