The Detroit Lions might actually get rewarded for bad luck. Yeah, you read that right.
When D.J. Reed went down with an injury earlier this season, it felt like another gut punch for a secondary that has been hit with wave after wave of setbacks. But according to Nick Korte of Over the Cap, the Lions could technically end up turning Reed’s missed time into a 2026 fourth-round compensatory pick, one of the strangest potential silver linings you’ll ever see.
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The Wild Compensatory Pick Twist
Here’s how this bizarre situation works. The Lions signed D.J. Reed this offseason after losing Carlton Davis, which means Reed counts as a compensatory free agent (CFA) replacement.
But here’s where it gets tricky: If Reed plays below a certain number of snaps this season, and Davis continues logging high snap counts elsewhere, the NFL’s formula could treat Reed’s signing as a net loss rather than a replacement.
That could unlock a fourth-round compensatory pick for Detroit in the 2026 NFL Draft.
“Finally, DJ Reed missing time due to injury has to be frustrating to the Lions,” Korte tweeted. “But there could be a very outside chance of a scenario like this that give them a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick if he continues to miss more time.”
Korte even shared a chart showing that Reed is currently sitting at 48% of the required snaps, just below the threshold. If he remains under that line, Detroit could benefit.
Why This Is So Rare
To put it bluntly, this kind of situation almost never happens. Usually, when you sign a free agent to replace another, their playing time cancels out in the league’s compensatory pick formula.
But because Reed’s injury has kept him off the field, that balance could tip.
Still, this is a long shot. As Korte said, “It’s a very outside chance.” The league’s compensatory pick formula is notoriously complex, taking into account salaries, playing time, postseason honors, and more. Even Korte, the best in the business, admits it’s a hard system to predict.
Finally, DJ Reed missing time due to injury has to be frustrating to the Lions.
But there could be a very outside chance of a scenario like this that give them a 4th round 2026 compensatory pick if he continues to miss more time. pic.twitter.com/HcEcIeIGu4
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) October 21, 2025
Detroit’s Focus: Winning, Not Comp Picks
Sure, the thought of landing a fourth-round pick for Reed’s absence is fascinating, but make no mistake, the Lions aren’t rooting for it.
If Reed’s ready to play, he’s playing. Period.
This is a team chasing a Super Bowl, not a spreadsheet win. Getting a bonus draft pick is nice, but having one of your top corners healthy down the stretch is better.
Still, it’s one of those rare “only in the NFL” quirks that adds another layer to Detroit’s fascinating 2025 season.
The Bottom Line
If D.J. Reed’s recovery takes longer than expected, the Lions might quietly benefit, but if he returns in time to help them make another playoff run, that’s the real prize.
Either way, it’s a win-win situation. Just not one you see very often.