Change was the theme of the Phoenix Suns’ offseason. Jordan Ott is in as head coach, joining general manager Brian Gregory on their first turn at the wheel of an NBA franchise.
Devin Booker’s back without the star power of the past teams, and the Suns hope they can be competitive by putting a gritty, defense-first team around the All-Star.
It’s a roster full of guys who have a lot to prove, Booker included. That means there are plenty of questions.
So to target the biggest ones, we asked Arizona Sports hosts and writers what they think is the X-factor that could swing Phoenix’s season for the better or worse.
Outside of Booker, who is your X-factor for this season and why?
Vince Marotta, co-host of Bickley & Marotta: You can make a strong case for Mark Williams, but his availability is such an X-factor unto itself. For me, it’s Jalen Green. We all know about Green’s disastrous first-round performance against Golden State last season when he was still with the Rockets. Disastrous might not cut it — it was nightmarish. So much so that Green is omitted from several media outlets’ lists of the league’s top 100 players. And on some, he was ranked BELOW Jordan Poole of New Orleans, who’s been a punchline for quite some time.
But Green, who is still 23 years old, has a clean slate in Phoenix. He’s uber-talented, and if he can rely on normal growth due to his comfort and experience in the league and mix in some fire stemming from his playoff failures and trade from the team that drafted him second overall, he can help the Suns elevate more quickly.
Mitch Vareldzis, host of Here Come the Suns and co-host of Arizona Sports at Night : Because I can only choose one, I will opt for who I assume to be the popular answer: Green. I assume him to be this team’s second-leading scorer, and he is the main piece to come back in the Kevin Durant trade. I hope that a change of scenery for him allows him to grow because there is a lot invested in him succeeding, and there is a lot of pressure on Mat Ishbia and company to prove they know what it takes to build a contending basketball team.
Kellan Olson, Suns reporter and co-host of the Empire of the Suns podcast and Arizona Sports at Night: The obvious guys are Green and Williams. Green is basically a two-guard from the 1990s and 2000s, when players at his position weren’t required to be reliable playmakers and could just get buckets. That part of his game is a major work in progress, and Phoenix is trying to improve it without a traditional point guard and instead putting that onus on Booker (with everything else he has to do already).
Williams just has to stay healthy. We can talk about defensive improvement and such once he’s actually on the floor enough.
My two picks outside of those are Ryan Dunn and Rasheer Fleming. Dunn deserves endless credit for his gargantuan leaps as an offensive player from his last season at Virginia to his first in the NBA. But there’s plenty of room left for him to get better defensively, even with his reputation. Fleming is the player Phoenix has been missing for years and years, an absolute freak athletically who has some strength to him as well, with the ability to play on the wing and even as a 5. Those two guys together could form the ideal wing partnership to play alongside Booker for the rest of his career’s prime, and if it gets going as soon as this year, the Suns will be better than we expect.
Luke Lapinski, co-host of Wolf & Luke: There really are a lot of ways you could take this question this season. I’m going with Green, narrowly edging out Dillon Brooks.
Teams aren’t going to push the Suns around with Brooks on the floor. He’s going to bring an attitude and toughness to this team that they need as they start to carve out a new identity. Can he be an instigator? Well, yeah. He doesn’t exactly run from the villain label people often put on him. But there won’t be many nights where Suns players aren’t giving maximum effort. You just don’t coast through games when your teammates include Brooks and Booker.
My answer to the actual question is still Green, though, because of his potential long-term impact. The Suns desperately need him to evolve into a consistent weapon alongside Booker. We know he can score — he led the Rockets in that department last season — but can he do it efficiently? Can he raise his defensive game? And how does he fit on the floor alongside Booker?
These questions have to be answered because the tough reality is that the Suns don’t have a lot of ways to acquire and develop potential stars in the foreseeable future. It’s not like they have a ton of first-round picks available to them, and most of the ones they do have have been pick-swapped into oblivion. But Green has potential, and he’s still only 23. If he does become the sort of player that you feel comfortable with as a No. 2 option on a playoff team someday, the Suns could be on the way up a lot sooner than people expect.
John Gambadoro, co-host of Burns & Gambo: My X-factor is Brian Gregory — the GM has to be the leader of your organization. Gregory did an extensive coaching search, he made some shrewd moves during the draft, and he was heavily involved in reshaping this team in a new vision. He has to manage players, coaches and unite the organization, get everyone on the same page. Coaches get down on players and players get down on coaches — the GM has to unite all relationships in the building.
Gregory needs to see what is happening, not what public sentiment is — what is real. This is not fantasy basketball. Most coaches don’t get fired because they can’t coach. They get fired because of personality conflicts. Gregory is the X-factor in keeping all of this united, making the right trades, acquiring draft assets and plotting the future.
Dan Bickley, co-host of Bickley & Marotta: The X-factor is Williams. While it seems like the Valley is constantly decimated by injuries to players who used to be so reliable and sturdy (Corbin Burnes, Jalen Green), maybe we can catch Williams in a fully healthy contract year. That would represent a big change in fortune and could push the Suns into the play-in tournament.
Dave Burns, co-host of Burns & Gambo: Williams is the easy answer. If he’s healthy, this thing could work faster than we expect. Given that he’s been available at a 43% clip for the first three years of his career, such a thing is nearly impossible to predict.
I think close behind Williams’ availability is Fleming’s ability. He’s one of one on this team, both in terms of his size, length and athleticism. If he can overcome his deficits and find time on the floor on a regular basis, he could put his stamp on many games this season.
Kevin Zimmerman, co-host of the Empire of the Suns podcast and digital content manager: Is it weird that I assume Williams could be healthy for 60-plus games this season? There is center depth for a reason if he blows past that mark or falls short.
Is it weird I think Green will be just fine next to Booker as a solid 20-point-per game, No. 2 scorer? Yes, he has to play defense and do some playmaking.
The X-factor is how far Dunn can improve from an up-and-down rookie season. Suns fans might not like to hear this, but he has been prematurely anointed as a core building block. Dunn must put together a season where his shot exists enough that he wouldn’t get run off the court in a theoretical playoff scenario. Defensively, he has shown the ability to bother some great wing players, but the bigger key in the NBA as an elite defender is being able to bother people from the 1 through 4 positions.
Dunn changes the complexion of this team if he can take Booker and Green away from having to stop the Shai Gilgeous-Alexanders and Stephen Currys of the world. He’s got a lot to prove there. If the 3-point shot hangs in the mid- or even low-30s percentages and Dunn can spend even 10 minutes a game chasing elite guards, he indeed deserves to be considered a core building block.