Manchester United had an eye-catching win over Liverpool on Sunday which has taken them up to ninth in the Premier League table but the numbers suggest they should really be sixth.
If we use Opta’s xPts model, United would be sitting sixth when it comes to underlying numbers, which would be in line with Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s target for the season.
That puts them fifth in our list of the five Premier League clubs whose football suggests they should have more points.
For comparison, Arsenal are exactly where they should be in first place – they clearly are the Premier League’s best side – and Liverpool are in line with their underlying numbers in fourth.
The only other clubs in the ‘correct’ position are Everton and West Ham.
What are XPts and how are they calculated?
According to football analytics expertMcKay Johns:
In a basic approach, xPts is calculated by simulating each shot in a match.
For each shot, the model will generate a random number between 0 and 1. If the number is less than the value of the xG of that shot, it says it is a goal and adds to that game’s simulation tally, and at the end compares the actual goal tallies.
If a team wins that simulated match they get 3 points, draw they get 1 point, and a loss they get zero.
Running that same simulation over many iterations (say 1000) gives the output of how often a team would have won, drawn, or lost, and then we can take the average of all the points they have accumulated in the simulations to get their expected points which will fall between 0 and 3.
So basically, it’s running the game through algorithms and working out the average of how many points should have been garnered from each match according to the xG created and the xG conceded.
As Johns says: ‘The stat does well at giving us a decent idea of how many points a team should get on average, especially over a season.’
The Premier League’s biggest underperformers:
5) Manchester United – underperforming by three places
Opta have Manchester United pegged as the sixth best team in the Premier League on underlying numbers. Only Crystal Palace are creating better-quality chances, though the flipside is that only West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Burnley are allowing better-quality chances. They are a curious team.
Of the top 10 players underperforming on their xG in the Premier League this season, three are from Manchester United: Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo and Matheus Cunha, who is yet to get off the mark for the Reds since his transfer from Wolves.
4) Wolves – underperforming by five places
They’re really not that bad. While they are bottom of the actual Premier League table, the XPts have them in 15th and better than Aston Villa, among others. If they had a decent goalkeeper, would they even be in trouble? Chelsea and Manchester United are among those clubs consistently conceding better chances.
3) Crystal Palace – underperforming by six places
We suggested in our manager rankings that perhaps Palace should be doing even better, and the numbers indicate that they are a more rounded side than high-flying Bournemouth. They have the highest xG in the Premier League – and it’s not even close. But then things like this happen…
Jean-Philippe Mateta missed this chance worth 0.67(xG) to score his fourth and win the game for Crystal Palace in the 99th minute pic.twitter.com/LAGUvCMZUH
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) October 19, 2025
2) Leeds United – underperforming by nine places
In terms of xG, they have battered Bournemouth, Tottenham and Burnley in their last three games and emerged with just one point. They are massively missing a ruthless finisher: Brendan Aaronson, Lucas Nmecha, Jack Harrison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are not that man. Imagine this Leeds side with an Antoine Semenyo or a Thiago…
1) Newcastle United – underperforming by nine places
Defensively brilliant but they have a real problem converting chances (in the Premier League at least), with the weekend defeat to Brighton a case in point. Jacob Murphy and Anthony Gordon are yet to get off the mark in the top flight; there’s only so much Nick Woltemade can do.
The full Premier League xPts table:
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Liverpool
Newcastle United
Manchester United
Leeds United
Brighton
Bournemouth
Chelsea
Brentford
Everton
Tottenham
Sunderland
Wolves
Fulham
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
West Ham
Burnley