The two Clásico rivals are only separated by two points at the top of La Liga ahead of their first meeting of the season. We look ahead to Sunday’s game at the Santiago Bernabéu with our Real Madrid vs Barcelona prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Real Madrid favourites to pull further clear of Barcelona in La Liga, giving them a 45.3% chance of a Clásico win, compared to the visitors’ 31.1%.
Barcelona are targeting a fifth straight win over Real Madrid in all competitions, something they have only previously achieved under Pep Guardiola, from 2008 to 2010.
Kylian Mbappé has scored 11 goals in eight appearances against Barcelona in all competitions, including five in his four Clásicos (all of which he has lost), his most against a non-French side in his club career.
Barcelona certainly had Real Madrid‘s number last season, and now, as the Blaugrana prepare to meet their historic rivals for the first time in 2025-26, a slice of history is in their grasp.
En route to winning a La Liga, Copa del Rey and Supercopa de España treble last season, Hansi Flick’s side recorded four straight victories over Madrid. They beat their rivals 4-0 and 4-3 in the league, 3-2 in extra-time in the Copa del Rey final, and 5-2 in the Supercopa showpiece.
Barça could now match their longest-ever winning run against Madrid in all competitions, having only previously ever won five straight Clásicos under Pep Guardiola from 2008 to 2010.
Flick, meanwhile, is one of only two coaches to win his first four matches in the entire history of the fixture, for either team. The other, of course, was Guardiola, whose five consecutive victories came in his first five Clásicos.
Barcelona are two points behind Real Madrid at the summit of La Liga, having lost their most recent away game in the competition, going down 4-1 at Sevilla.
They had not lost any of their previous 15 away games in the competition (W11 D4) and have not lost on back-to-back road trips since April 2024. Xavi oversaw those successive defeats, one of which came by a 2-0 scoreline at the Bernabéu.
But since their chastening loss in Seville, Barça have edged out Catalonian neighbours Girona 2-1 in La Liga and thumped 10-man Olympiakos 6-1 in the Champions League, with Fermín López getting a hat-trick in that latter game and Marcus Rashford scoring twice. That treble made López the first Spaniard to score a hat-trick for Barcelona in the Champions League.
Rashford, meanwhile, will be desperate to get his first taste of El Clásico this week, and his nine goal involvements in all competitions this term (five goals, four assists) are the most of any Barça player, one ahead of Lamine Yamal (three goals, five assists).
Marcus Rashford goal involvements 2025-26
But he has plenty of competition for a starting berth, despite Robert Lewandowski and Dani Olmo being on the injury list. Raphinha (three goals, two assists in all competitions), Ferran Torres (five goals, one assist) and López (five goals) have all contributed this term, helping Barcelona score 33 goals already in 2025-26. Only Bayern Munich (44) have more in all competitions among teams from Europe’s top five leagues.
Twenty-four of Barça’s goals have come in La Liga, the most in the competition, while they have also hit the woodwork the most of any team in Spain’s top flight, doing so 10 times.
This is only the second time since Opta records began in 2003-04 that a team has struck the woodwork at least 10 times in their first nine games of a season in La Liga, after Barcelona themselves last term (11).
While the Blaugrana’s attackers have caught the eye already this term, they trail Real Madrid in the table by two points. A 5-2 derby defeat to Atlético Madrid represents the only loss since the summer’s Club World Cup for Xabi Alonso in his debut campaign as Los Blancos boss.
La Liga table 2025-26 after MD9
They were also victorious in the Champions League in midweek, beating Juventus 1-0 to maintain their perfect start in Europe, courtesy of Jude Bellingham‘s first goal of the season.
Bellingham underwent shoulder surgery following the Club World Cup and missed the start of Madrid’s campaign, but others have come to the fore in his absence.
Arda Güler has eight goal involvements this season, scoring three and assisting five, with only Kylian Mbappé (15 goals, 2 assists) and Vinícius Júnior (5 goals, 4 assists) contributing to more goals for Alonso’s side.
Among all players from Europe’s top five leagues, only Harry Kane (20 goals) has outscored Mbappé this season, and the Frenchman scored a hat-trick in the most recent Clásico, albeit in a losing effort as Barcelona triumphed 4-3 to inch closer to the title in May.
Mbappé has scored 11 goals in eight appearances against Barcelona in all competitions during his career with both Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, netting five times in four Clásicos – but he has lost every one of those meetings. His tally of 11 goals is the most he has scored against a single non-French team in his club career.
Vinícius, meanwhile, leads all players in La Liga for touches in the opposition area this season, with 79. His two closest rivals could also feature on Sunday, with Mbappé on 74 and Rashford on 56.
Vinicius touch map opposition box 2025-26 La Liga
Right-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal are both doubtful for the hosts, giving Alonso a potential selection dilemma, while Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba are out.
Alonso will be hoping to buck the trend of Real Madrid managers struggling on their Clásico debuts. Seven of the last eight Madrid coaches have lost their first meeting with Barça in La Liga, with the exception being Zinedine Zidane, who won 2-1 at Camp Nou in April 2016.
Madrid have won their last eight home games in the league and could win nine in a row for the first time since February 2015, with that nine-game streak coming in Carlo Ancelotti’s first stint in charge.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head
Though Barcelona won their four meetings with Real Madrid last season, Los Blancos can point to a stronger recent head-to-head record if only matches in La Liga are considered.
Madrid have won seven of their last 11 La Liga clashes with Barcelona (L4), achieving the same number of victories as in their previous 29 Clásico matches in the competition (D7 L15).
None of the last 11 meetings between Madrid (7 wins) and Barcelona (4) in La Liga have ended in a draw. This is the longest run without a draw in El Clásico in the competition since a streak of 18 matches between 1977 and 1986 (10 wins for Madrid, eight for Barcelona).
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction
Real Madrid have quietly ticked along under Alonso so far, but after losing to Atlético last month, they will be determined to pick up a statement win over another rival.
Across the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, Madrid were victorious in 45.3%, with Barcelona winning in 31.1% and 23.6% finishing all square.
Real Madrid v Barcelona Opta match prediction
In our 2025-26 La Liga season predictions, Madrid are now favourites for the title, topping the pile in 57.1% of simulations.
Barça are given a 37.4% chance of retaining their crown, but those hopes may drop further if they are unable to come away from the Bernabéu with a result.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Federico Valverde, Raúl Asencio, Éder Militão, Álvaro Carreras, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham, Franco Mastantuono, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé.
Head coach: Xabi Alonso
Barcelona: Wojciech Szczesny, Jules Koundé, Pau Cubarsi, Eric García, Alejandro Balde, Marc Casadó, Pedri, Fermín López, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Marcus Rashford.
Head coach: Hansi Flick
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
La Liga Stats Opta
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