After a joint appearance at a New York Knicks game on Oct. 22, it was a foregone conclusion that incumbent Eric Adams was going to endorse Andrew Cuomo for mayor, setting aside earlier condemnations where he called the former governor a “snake and a liar.”
They journeyed to a NYCHA project in East Harlem on Oct. 23 to make if official. “Andrew and I are two kids from New York,” Adams said. “And when you think about it, Andrew’s a brother and I have three of them. And brothers fight.”
Adams had been also been more sharply critical of the Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist who has enjoyed a double digit lead in most polls since beating Cuomo in the Democratic party which Adams sat out.
“I’m fighting for the families of New York, that’s why I am endorsing Andrew Cuomo,” Adams said, adding: “When families are attacked, brothers come together,” Adams said.
How it plays out is debated. Early signs say the impact will be small. The most recent mayoral poll from AARP/Gotham Polling & Analytics of 1,040 likely voters released Oct. 20 had Mamdani leading with 43.2 percent of the vote against Cuomo’s 28.9 percent and Sliwa’s 19.4 percent.
But the same poll also [noted](https://states.aarp.org/new-york/new-aarp-new-york-poll-mamdani-maintains-double-digit-lead-in-nyc-mayoral-race-undecided-50-voters-could-decide-outcome) “In a head-to-head scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani leads 44.6 percent to 40.7 percent, with nearly 15 percent undecided,” AARP stated. And it noted that the vast majority of voters in the 50+ age category are undecided at much higher rates than younger voters. Forty nine percent of voters 65+ say if it came to a sudden head-to-head contest they’d be undecided, and that is greater than the polls margin of error of four percent.
Of course, a two person race is looking increasingly unlikely as Sliwa gives no sign of backing out or endorsing Cuomo.
Anther hurdle: Cuomo, as an independent candidate on the Fight and Deliver line, is far down on the ballot with seven candidates listed ahead of him. He’s behind Adams and independent candidate Jim Tilden: they both dropped out in September. Dropping out only five weeks before the election meant it was too late to remove the names from ballots printed by the Board of Elections. Tilden immediately urged a “Stop Mamdani” campaign and urged everyone else except Cuomo to drop out. Nobody other than Adams heeded the advice to endorse the number two candidate.
Anyone looking for Cuomo will have to hunt for him in the ballot line on Row “I,” which is slot number eight.
Mamdani’s appears on row A as the Democratic candidate and a second time as the Working Families candidate on Row D. The low profile Conservative party candidate, Irene Estrada, is in the number three spot on Row C. And then comes again Sliwa for his second line, Protect Animals, which is in the fifth slot in Row E. Then the two non-candidates appear, Walden and Adams. Then finally comes Cuomo in the eighth slot. Only Jim Hernandez on the Quality of Life party (Row G) ranks lower on the ballot.
The independent candidates are picked in random by the Board of Elections when there is no vote tally from past elections. And since the bulk of the independents are essentially little more than vanity vehicles created during the petition process to support single candidates before disappearing after the election, the new entities have no input as to where they end up on the ballot lineup.
But most poll watchers agree that place in the line up could have _some_ influence.
”There’s no doubt ballot placement affects some percentage of the vote but there’s no consensus how much an effect it has,” said veteran strategist Jerry Skurnik of Engage Voters USA. Two mayoral elections ago, down ballot independents drew over five percent which did not matter much that year but if it the race tightens down this year, it could matter. “In 2017, Conservatives endorsed the Republican candidate and there were five independents who received 5.4 percent,” Skurnik said.
“It’s very important for undecided votes,” said Kenneth Frydman, a PR consultant who was press secretary for Rudy Giuliani’s successful run for mayor in 1994 before turning into a relentless critic of the former mayor in recent years. “Voters are not going to go five or six across and two down to find Cuomo,” Frydman ventured.