We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction and preview. Can the visitors draw within three points of the leaders?
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: The Key Stats
Arsenal are the 62.7% favourites to win the match according to the Opta supercomputer.
Crystal Palace have only won once in their last 14 away league matches against the Gunners.
Jean-Philippe Mateta is only the third Palace player to score five goals in their first eight matches of a Premier League season.
Every match is a big match when you want to win the Premier League. For Arsenal, the visit of Crystal Palace could prove part of a pivotal weekend. With Manchester City away to an Aston Villa team unbeaten in five league games at the same time, Arsenal’s advantage over the chasing pack may grow before Sunday is out.
The Gunners have an excellent record at the Emirates Stadium when occupying first place in the standings. Arsenal have only lost two of their 70 home Premier League matches when they’ve started the day top of the table (winning 52). They were beaten by Hull City in September 2008 and Manchester City in February 2023.
They have won seven of eight such games at the Emirates (drawing the other) since that City loss, scoring 28 goals. The best Palace can hope for is a draw based on this, but their recent form shows they have excelled in picking up a point in 2025.
Crystal Palace have drawn eight of their last 14 Premier League matches (only losing once), including a 3-3 draw on Matchday 8 against Bournemouth. Since the start of April, the Eagles have drawn nine Premier League matches – three more than anyone else.
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Oliver Glasner’s men would have won more matches if they converted more of their expected goals (xG) into actual ones. Palace lead the Premier League for shots on target (43), xG (17.4) and big chances this season. However, they are underperforming their xG by the biggest margin (-5.4) and have missed 22 of their 33 big chances.
If this is not detrimental enough to their likelihood of a win, they are facing a team that barely allows anything. Arsenal have not faced a shot on target in either of their last two Premier League matches. Since 2003-04, the only side to go three games in a row without facing one was Manchester City in 2014. They only faced one shot on target in their impressive 4-0 Champions League win over Atlético Madrid on Tuesday.
The Gunners have faced the fewest shots (65), fewest shots on target (18), the lowest xG (4.8) and conceded the fewest goals (three) in the Premier League this season. It’s the joint fewest goals they’ve conceded after eight Premier League matches, along with 1998-99. That was also the last time they kept five clean sheets in their first eight matches.
Arsenal defensive performance top five European Leagues 2025-26
Stats correct as of 24 October 2025
If Arsenal have any doubts over their title chances, they rest with their lack of goals in open play. Having scored fewer than Burnley (who have six) and the same total as Sunderland (five) isn’t a great look. It’s just as well Nicolas Jover has them primed on set plays.
Arsenal lead the way for corner goals (7) and overall goals from set-pieces (10) in the Premier League this season, having found the net from a dead ball in six of their eight games. It is the earliest into a season any team has scored 10 set-piece goals in Premier League history.
Having played Atlético in midweek, Mikel Arteta may rotate his side here. Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke, and Martin Ødegaard are not available due to injury, but Leandro Trossard could return after being rested for the Champions League win.
He scored Arsenal’s winner against Fulham last weekend, and he has netted in each of his last two Premier League starts against Crystal Palace. He has also never lost when scoring for the Gunners in the competition, a run of 21 games.
The visitors don’t have many selection issues, with only Cheick Doucouré, Caleb Kporha and Chadi Riad out of action. They will be looking to put their shock Conference League defeat to AEK Larnaca behind them. If Palace are to win on Sunday, they will need Jean-Philippe Mateta to maintain his hot form.
Eight of Mateta’s last nine league goals have been scored in London, and he’s netted five times in his last eight derbies. He is also only the third Palace player to score five goals in their first eight matches of a Premier League season, but opportunities may be at a premium here.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record points strongly towards a home win.
Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace, though the exception was a 2-2 draw in this fixture last season. It’s been more than six years since they were beaten at the Emirates Stadium by the Eagles.
Palace have won just one of their last 14 away league games against Arsenal, losing eight times in that sequence. The sole victory occurred when they won 3-2 in April 2019 under Roy Hodgson.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction
The league leaders are red-hot favourites to secure another three points for their title charge.
Arsenal’s chances of a win are rated at 62.7% by the Opta supercomputer. Even if they don’t beat their visitors from south London, the Gunners are expected to pick up a point.
A draw was the outcome in 19.8% of the 10,000 simulations, with a Crystal Palace victory coming out just 17.5% of the time.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Crystal Palace: Dean Henderson, Chris Richards, Maxence Lacroix, Marc Guéhi, Adam Wharton, Daichi Kamada, Daniel Muñoz, Tyrick Mitchell, Yéremy Pino, Ismaïla Sarr, Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Head coach: Oliver Glasner
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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