Lawyers have ploughed through 250,000 files to reach a verdict - so here's when it's due and what happens next for City and their rivals
There is a joke doing the rounds among legal experts about the amount of times they have been put on stand-by for a decision in the Manchester City “115 charges” case.
Meals have been cancelled, night outs postponed and work diaries cleared in anticipation of being called to comment on the case. The only punishment doled out so far, they note, is to their social lives.
Finally, though, it appears as if their expertise might be about to pay dividends.
Whispers of a resolution to the case are nothing new but one source with insider knowledge of how arbitration cases work has told The i Paper that experts are braced for a decision to drop in mid-November – possibly in a week that coincides with the next international break.
When we can expect a verdict
That tallies with conversations with several figures at Premier League clubs who believe that the uncertainty will surely not extend into 2026.
“Everyone just wants a verdict now and some certainty over what comes next,” one source told The i Paper – pointing out that some important votes on the future of financial fair play due at the end of November might yet be “totally overshadowed” by what happens with the City case.
There’s a feeling in some boardrooms that the start of the season represented the “quiet before the storm” for Premier League clubs, with the risk of legal warfare following a possible guilty verdict as rivals launch compensation cases and even the prospect of an asterisk being applied to the league table if City appeal any points deduction.
“It’s gone very quiet and because it’s been going on for so long it’s almost been forgotten about but all hell could break loose when it lands,” a source says.
It doesn’t help that things have gone dark since February 2023, when the league first confirmed the charges. The Premier League have been consistent throughout that confidentiality surrounding the case means they can say nothing. CEO Richard Masters has artfully flat-batted any enquiries in interviews.
But that has not stopped speculation around what comes next.
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MAY 19: Kyle Walker, Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish lift the Premier League trophy after the Premier League match between Manchester City and West Ham United at Etihad Stadium on May 19, 2024 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Could there be an asterisk next to City’s name? (Photo: Getty)
The well-connected Stefan Borson, who is a former City advisor and a legal expert, claims that as of the end of the recent international break the verdict had not dropped in the inbox of either the Premier League or the club. But he’s adamant that we will know before the end of the year.
The hearing began in mid-September 2024 and ran until early December, lasting an estimated 12 weeks. The i Paper has been told that there were more than 250,000 documents considered in the complex case, which saw City charged with 130 alleged breaches of financial fair play rules from 2009 until 2023.
One source who has worked on a similar arbitration case said lawyers work on the assumption that for every week a hearing goes on for, it will require four weeks for the panel to deliberate over.
If that logic was correct – and it’s worth noting Everton’s original, five-day PSR case did follow that timeline – City’s 12-week case would take roughly 48 weeks to resolve, giving an expected verdict in November of this year.
We have been here before, of course. Pep Guardiola said in February of this year that a verdict would arrive “in one month” – a wildly optimistic take that had most people scratching their heads at the time.
But there’s a sense from those who have followed the case that, having passed the year mark since the hearing began and more than two years from the charges first dropping, the end is nigh.
‘No more delays’
“There’s no real excuse for a further delay,” Borson said last week.
“Even if the panel were busy on other matters, and they would have been, then I think it would be really quite extraordinary that there’s been no timetable set with them and no arrangement set with them in terms of the payment of their time over these last ten months to produce the decision by a given date.
“I think on any basis 10 months is enough to produce even a very, very detailed 400 or 500-page decision on this case, and I think it is imminent.”
Soccer Football - UEFA Champions League - Villarreal v Manchester City - Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal, Spain - October 21, 2025 Manchester City's Phil Foden during the warm up before the match REUTERS/Pablo Morano
City’s verdict won’t be the end of the case (Photo: Reuters)
For the Premier League, the world’s most popular and most lucrative football competition, the repercussions could be just as wide-ranging as they are for City. Picking a fight with a member club has proved a bruising process, with City then challenging the league’s Associated Party Transactions (APT) rules in a case that was only settled earlier this autumn.
While that ended with agreement, it’s difficult to see how the 115 charges can be settled in a similarly amicable way.
“It’s big and it’s fraught with political challenges as well because Manchester City are a big component of the Premier League so it will damage their brand,” says professor Rob Wilson, programme director at the University Campus of Football Business.
Bad news… whatever the outcome
“In reality it damages their brand whatever happens. If City are cleared they’ll be accused of not being able to police financial fair play, if they are guilty it is a club that has been a huge part of the Premier League story for the last few years. Whatever happens it feels like a lose-lose for the Premier League.”
There will also be after-shocks. An appeal from City is almost certain if they’re found guilty of any of the substantive charges. Compensation cases from Premier League rivals feel inevitable. They could rumble on for months or even years afterwards.
Could clubs who missed out on Europe or the Premier League title launch legal cases against City if they’re found guilty? It’s possible.
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Burnley’s £50m+ compensation claim against Everton – related to a PSR punishment from late 2023 – concluded earlier this month and legal eagles believe we’ll learn plenty from that verdict.
“Relegation has very clear financial losses from TV money and just having the Premier League share so it feels more straightforward,” Daniel Gore, a senior associate with Withers says.
“Whether teams can say ‘We would have made it into the Champions League, Europa League or won the Premier League and made this much money because of this or that’ might be difficult to prove but it’s certainly not impossible.”
Only one thing seems certain: even a verdict in November won’t be the end of it.