Stoke City are not the only club to have a significantly different record depending on what time games kick off in this new landscape for Sky Sports
07:00, 25 Oct 2025
Peter Smith
Peter has reported on Stoke City for The Sentinel and StokeonTrentLive since 2013, following the club in the Premier League, Championship and beyond, including trips to Singapore, Germany, France, Croatia and Switzerland. He has been watching Stoke since 1990.
The Sky Sports cameras will be screen Derby County's game against Stoke City.
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Less than half of Championship matches have kicked off at 3pm since a new Sky Sports deal started in 2024/25.
A quick check of Stoke City’s 12.30pm record this week sent us down a bit of a rabbit hole. For context, Stoke head into today’s lunchtime match at Portsmouth looking for their first away win in an early kick-off since January 2022.
A brief look at the numbers threw up quite a significant discrepancy between results depending on when the game started. The sample size isn’t huge but it’s not tiny. Stoke have played 65 times since the Championship diary was upturned in that new agreement with Sky Sports.
The Potters have won 13, drawn 10 and lost seven of 30 3pm kick-offs since the start of 2024/25, for example, but won just two of 14 12.30pm kick-offs, drawing five and losing seven. The difference is particularly stark taking into account if matches are home or away. They have won six of 16 (38 per cent) 3pm kick-offs on the road but none of eight at 12.30pm.
But that’s just Stoke and, as we said, the sample size is pretty small and Stoke had a poor season last year so they’re not unexpected.
It was more interesting, in a nerdy kind of way, to see what difference the kick-off times have made across the division as a whole.
There have been 684 matches since the new TV contract came into force, with 140 at 12.30pm and 321 at 3pm, as well as 201 evening (7.45pm or 8pm) games.
As a whole, the home team has won 44 per cent of matches but it’s 49 per cent at 3pm and just 35 per cent at 12.30pm. It’s 42 per cent in the evening.
The away win column is pretty similar: 26 per cent for 3pm; 27 per cent at 12.30pm and 30 per cent in the evening.
But the draw column isn’t. Nearly two fifths of 12.30pm kick-offs finish level, compared to just a quarter at 3pm. There are slightly fewer goals in early kick-offs too (2.39 in a game on average compared to 2.55). Something else to consider when asking supporters to make a 400-mile round trip.
There is confidence that Stoke will start pulling towards at least the average over the next few months – and there will be nearly 2,000 in the away end at Fratton Park hoping that starts today.
Results in the Championship depending on kick-off time since the start of 2024/25.
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Results in the Championship depending on kick-off time since the start of 2024/25.
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