Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, wearing a yellow helmet, will get to play the team that was his own for most of his NFL career on Sunday night as the Green Bay Packers are coming to Pittsburgh. Even though Rodgers has played this game off as not being a revenge game, plenty of people don’t believe him. That includes former NFL general manager Mike Tannenbaum, who called it Rodgers’ “own personal Super Bowl.”
Whether Rodgers feels that way or not, you’d expect him to want to play at his best against the team that drafted him. But analyst Nick Wright isn’t confident that’s going to happen. He’s more confident in the Packers’ defense.
“I don’t think Aaron plays his best in big spots,” Wright said Friday on the Week 8 prediction show of What’s Wright? “This is a really big spot… I think Green Bay’s defense is going to be able to disrupt Rodgers’ timing. Some of that quick passing stuff isn’t going to work.”
Is Wright correct about Aaron Rodgers? Does he fold under the bright lights in big spots? Well, one way to look at that is to compare his regular-season stats against his playoff stats. Rodgers has played 254 regular-season games prior to Sunday’s matchup against the Packers with 247 starts. His average completion percentage is 65.2 percent. He throws a touchdown on 6.1 percent of all his passing attempts versus an interception on 1.4 percent of his attempts. He averages 7.6 yards per attempt and 252.8 yards per game.
Rodgers has played in 22 playoff games in his career with 21 starts. He’s completed passes on 64.7 percent of his attempts. He’s thrown a touchdown on 5.8 percent of his passes versus interceptions on 1.7 percent of those attempts. And he’s averaged 7.6 yards per attempt and 267.9 yards per game.
So, Rodgers isn’t quite as good on average in the playoffs as he is in the regular season. But it isn’t like he’s suddenly turning into a pumpkin a la Cinderella’s carriage. I don’t think Rodgers isn’t a big-time performer. Heck, he won a Super Bowl (against the Steelers), and he was the MVP of that game, too.
But that doesn’t mean much about this matchup on Sunday night. What matters most is how Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense perform against this Packers’ defense. The Packers allow 288.5 yards a game, sixth-best in the league. And they allow the second-fewest rushing yards (76.5). This is going to be a tough test for offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense.
The Steelers’ passing offense relies on yards after the catch. Aaron Rodgers leads the league in yards after the catch per completion with an average of 7.6 yards. Packers QB Jordan Love is second at 6.1 yards (tied with Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams). Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense allows the eighth-fewest yards after the catch in the league.
When our very own Josh Carney sat down and made his list of four key matchups in this game, he tabbed the chess match between Smith and Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley as one of them. The Steelers have a very concrete identity on offense. Unfortunately, it’s an identity that the Packers are doing a good job against this season.
So, maybe Nick Wright is right that the Packers will be able to cause issues for Aaron Rodgers and his quick passing attack. But no other teams are executing this style of offense at the level the Steelers are. Rodgers will need to be at the top of his game regardless. On the plus side, he might have WR Calvin Austin III back from injury.
Recommended for you