The New England Patriots are 5-2 and on top of the AFC East. However, they are just 1-2 at home and in Week 8, one of the league’s top defenses comes to town.
The Cleveland Browns’ defense can wreck a game, as they showed last week when they forced four turnovers which led to 21 points in a 31-6 win over Miami. This is also a defense that almost single-handedly beat Green Bay earlier in the season.
However, there’s a clear talent disparity between these teams. Drake Maye is already viewed as a top quarterback, while Dillon Gabriel is clearly still playing with the training wheels on. The Patriots are viewed as a playoff team, while the Browns aren’t really in that picture.
The Browns are 7-point underdogs at all of the top Ohio sportsbooks. Will New England improve to 6-2 or will Cleveland pull off the upset?
Browns vs. Patriots predictions and best bets
Under 40.5 total points (-105 at DraftKings)
Kayshon Boutte anytime touchdown (+275 at Caesars)
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The Cleveland Browns have the best defense in football according to EPA/play, and the second best defensive success rate. Over the last three games, Cleveland has given up just 16.7 points per game, which is 4th best in the league over that stretch.
The Browns defense is the best in the league against the run, but league average against the pass. This gives the Patriots a slight advantage, as they have the best passing attack in the league in terms of EPA/play while their rushing attack ranks 27th. In terms of over-under betting, I struggle to see where the points come from in this game.
Kayshon Boutte spends the most time on the field of any Patriots’ wide receiver and has led the position in snaps every week to this point. He’s developed into a trusted red zone target for Maye. Boutte has four touchdowns on the season, including three in the last two games.
At +275 odds, this is a bet worth taking. New England will have issues running the ball, so let’s back the wide receiver who spends the most time on the field and has a knack for the end zone.
Expect Cleveland to struggle to move the ball. Kevin Stefanski would love for Quinshon Judkins to shoulder the load offensively, but the Patriots have the third best defense at stopping the run according to the EPA metric.
At this point, asking Dillon Gabriel to throw the ball downfield seems like a lot to ask. He is a league-worst 10-of-30 on passes with at least 10 air yards.
NOTE: EPA is a statistic that measures how much each individual play impacted the probability of the offense scoring on that drive. Find EPA statistics at SumerSports.com
Browns vs. Patriots moneyline odds analysis
Why Patriots will win as the favorites
Best odds: -350 at BetMGM Sportsbook
This is an extreme mismatch at the quarterback position. Drake Maye is already on some top 10 lists, while Dillon Gabriel is having problems completing passes that travel past the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots have a stout run defense, which will force Gabriel into unfavorable down-and-distance situations that he’ll have major issues overcoming.
Maye makes enough plays against a good but not elite Browns’ secondary for the Patriots to come out with a win in a low-scoring affair.
Why Browns can win as the underdogs
Best odds: +300 at Fanatics Sportsbook
With this defense, the Browns are almost always a live underdog. All it takes is one Myles Garrett strip-sack to change the entire game. As this defense has shown, one or two touchdowns offensively can be enough for them to carry the team to victory.
New England has also struggled at home, losing two of their first three games at Gillette Stadium. Maybe those woes continue.
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