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Picking three Week 8 locks was always going to be challenging, as weeks that look predictable on paper often end up being the ones that feature the most upsets.
But following Saturday’s news that two of the (previously) heaviest favorites today, Atlanta and Baltimore, will be without their starting quarterbacks, Dolphins-Falcons and Bears-Ravens both just got a lot more interesting.
I still expect Atlanta to roll at home, but what else do we like today? Let’s get into it below.
First, ICYMI, hit the link below for my midweek takes on all 13 games this weekend.
Dolphins at Falcons (-7) — 1 p.m. (CBS)
No Michael Penix Jr., no problem??
Harsh as that may be to the Falcons’ second-year quarterback, I think Atlanta’s talented offense won’t skip a beat with Kirk Cousins under center today.
It’s telling that the line has barely budged since the news that it would be Cousins instead of Penix as the starting QB for Atlanta today. I do trust Cousins to feed Bijan Robinson and keep the offense on track.
Perhaps more importantly, I expect a few more one-sided losses for the Dolphins over the next few weeks, regardless of the opponent.
Miami’s failure to move the ball vs. Cleveland’s stout defense last Sunday was understandable. But turning the ball over four times and giving up 31 points to the Browns screamed, “fade the Fins,” at least until they give us a reason to trust them again.
Atlanta’s defense made life miserable for Marcus Mariota and Josh Allen in this team’s last two home games, and I expect the Falcons to make this a long afternoon for Tua Tagovailoa and Co.
Pick: Falcons -7 (best odds: -110 at bet365)
Don’t miss the latest episode of Newsweek’s sports betting video podcast, All In With Ashley, while you fill out your Week 8 betting slip:
Cowboys at Broncos (-3.5) — 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Is there a better offense in the league than the Cowboys with a healthy CeeDee Lamb?
So far this year, few teams have been tougher to stop than Dak Prescott, George Pickens, Lamb and the ‘Boys. Dallas put up big numbers without Lamb for a few weeks. In his return in Week 7, the Cowboys racked up 400-plus yards of offense and 44 points in a blowout win over the Commanders.
This O will get a tough test on the road vs. Denver’s solid defense, but I don’t think anyone is going to be shutting down Dallas any time soon.
Although Denver is 5-2 — including a perfect 3-0 at home — the Broncos have been playing with fire, even against underwhelming competition the last two weeks.
Broncos QB Bo Nix is coming through with big plays with his legs when his team needs them, but his numbers as a passer have left a lot to be desired almost every week.
I’d have a hard time laying the points with the Broncos even if they were at full strength, but with starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw out, stops will be even tougher to come by against a Dallas offense that is second in the NFL in yards per play (6.1), third in total passing yards (1,879) and tied for third with 4.9 rushing yards per attempt.
Injuries on the O-line and in the secondary make backing Dallas a bit of a risk here. Still, I like them to keep this one close, if not pull off the upset, in a shootout.
Pick: Cowboys +3.5 (best odds: -115 at DK, FD, bet365)
Commanders at Chiefs (-11.5) — MNF
If there’s one offense that’s more impressive than the Cowboys right now, it might be the Chiefs.
Kansas City’s early-season struggles without Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice have become a distant memory over the last few weeks. With those two giving Patrick Mahomes the speed this offense has lacked over the last couple of years, the Chiefs are flying high right now.
Kansas City will miss OT Josh Simmons and star guard Trey Smith (doubtful) up front — especially if Smith is unavailable. This offense should still be able to move the ball with little difficulty against a Commanders D that looked awful against Atlanta, Chicago and Dallas in recent weeks.
With Jayden Daniels out, I don’t see Washington winning this game without a dominant ground game. And against a Chiefs D that played well against the Lions’ outstanding running game in Week 6 and smothered Las Vegas last week, I don’t see that happening.
Washington will get a boost from WRs Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel (both will be back in action after missing last week’s game), but I don’t think it will be enough for Marcus Mariota and the Commanders to keep this one close from start to finish at Arrowhead.
Pick: Chiefs -11.5 (best odds: -110 at bet365)
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