Leeds United have made a great start to their Premier League campaign, made even stronger by their 2-1 win over West Ham United on Friday evening. And there is one reassuring statistic that they hope Daniel Farke won’t break to remain in the division.
Goals from Brenden Aaronson and Joe Rodon put Leeds 2-0 up against West Ham inside 15 minutes, and although Mateus Fernandes grabbed an equaliser in second half stoppage time to set up a nervy finish, the Whites held on to record a much-needed win under Daniel Farke.
It sees them 15th in the Premier League table, six points clear of 18th-placed Nottingham Forest and averaging above one point per game, more than enough to keep them in the division.
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And, after a strong start, a statistic has emerged that shows Leeds will stay up if previous campaigns are to be believed.
Leeds boss Daniel Farke managing Leeds vs West Ham in the Premier League
Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images
Long-standing Premier League record means Leeds have a great chance of avoiding relegation
Match of the Day’s coverage of Leeds’ win over West Ham provided a statistic at the end of the highlights of their 2-1 win.
Since 2014, there have been 12 newly-promoted teams who have picked up 11 or more points in their opening 10 games. And after such strong starts, all of them have stayed up and survived in the Premier League.
The last team to have failed at that hurdle was Cardiff City in 2013-14, as they took 12 points from their first 10 games, before winning just 20 more points from 28 games. That saw Cardiff relegated under one-time Manchester United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
It bears a strong sense of confidence for Leeds, who have actually hit the 11-point mark with a game to spare on that metric.
Leeds fans will be hoping that Daniel Farke doesn’t break that record by becoming the first manager in 13 attempts to turn it on its head, despite the German previously being relegated with Norwich City. He has had a good start to the season, with Farke named as Manager of the Week after Leeds’ win over Wolves.
But their strong start, coupled with earning points against teams in the bottom half and earning draws against those in the top half, has shown they are more than capable enough – with Tottenham boss Thomas Frank praising Leeds’ defensive work.
Thomas Frank prior to Brighton and Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur - Premier League
Photo by Steve Bardens/Getty Images
Premier League history works in Leeds’ favour in survival bid
Of course, the 40-point mark is the go-to as the ‘magic number’ for teams to survive in the Premier League.
Only once has that been beaten by a relegated side in a 38-game season, with West Ham being relegated in the 2002-03 campaign with 42 points to their name.
The nearest anybody has gotten to that target is Birmingham City in 2011, with 39 points, and if Leeds can keep that up, they’ll be just fine.
Their home form has been impressive this season. Taking eight points from five games at Elland Road, they have only failed to take points from top-four occupiers Bournemouth and Tottenham, as well as Champions League outfit Newcastle.
That works out as 30 points from home form alone, and with one win on the road from four attempts, accruing their current form as a final tally would be enough to see them survive with ease.
Leeds finished ninth upon their return to the Premier League in 2020-21 under Marcelo Bielsa, taking scalps against Manchester City, Tottenham, Leicester and Everton.
If they can do so again, it could see them remain in the Premier League for a long time – matching Leeds’ Elland Road expansion plans.