The NFL’s Most Valuable Player award is essentially a quarterback honor in modern days. Generally, the award goes to a quarterback who leads his team to a playoff spot by putting up gaudy numbers and delivering in big moments on national television, with additional weight being placed on the games down the stretch in the regular season. The other thing that a player usually needs is a compelling narrative — Josh Allen’s MVP award last season was at least somewhat driven by his absurd rushing touchdown numbers, which helped to push him over Lamar Jackson for the top spot.
Through seven weeks of the season, Jordan Love’s name has rarely come up in the MVP discussion. That should change immediately after the performance he delivered on Sunday Night Football in Pittsburgh, which delivered both eye-popping statistics (arguably for the first time all season) and more than enough narrative-based momentum to sustain him for the next few weeks.
First, let’s look at why Love hasn’t been in the discussion much to this point. In simple terms, he just hasn’t put up volume stats like some of the other quarterbacks around the NFL had. Through week 7, Love only had one game with 32 or more pass attempts, and only two with more than 30. He had just as many games with fewer than 200 passing yards as he did with more than 200 (three apiece). That’s a function of Matt LaFleur’s offense, which is intended to revolve around the run game and build passing concepts off of it, as well as the Packers’ generally slow pace.
Love’s stat line through six games looked like this:
* 122-for-176 (69.3% completion rate), 1,438 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs, 8.17 YPA, 115.2 passer rating
By comparison, a few of of the perceived leaders in the MVP race after week seven were Allen, Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. Through the end of week 7, their lines looked as follows:
* Josh Allen: 122-for-178 (68.5%), 1,397 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 7.85 YPA, 103.1 rating
* Baker Mayfield: 157-for-245 (64.1%), 1,767 yards, 13 TDs, 2 INTs, 7.21 YPA, 99.8 rating
* Patrick Mahomes: 164-for-248 (66.1%), 1,800 yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs, 7.25 YPA, 102.9 rating
Of course, keep in mind that these are just passing stats. Allen remains an absurd force running the football, with 46 carries for 254 yards and 3 TDs through week 7; Mahomes has picked up his scrambling game as well, rushing for 250 yards and 4 TDs of his own.
But underlying the big difference in yards and touchdowns through week 7 are these players’ efficiency numbers. Check out Love’s YPA and passer rating — and that does not touch on more advanced numbers like EPA and EPA per play. Love has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in EPA per play all season long, he just has not thrown the ball with nearly the volume of Mayfield or Mahomes early in the season.
That all changed on a beautiful Sunday night in Pittsburgh. Love’s performance against the Steelers on the prime time stage was a statement game in a multitude of ways; He out-dueled his old mentor, he took over a game when the Packers’ running game was stalling out, and he put up massive numbers that reflect both his efficiency and big-play ability.
Love’s game in week 8 showed a final stat line of 29-for-37 (with a string of 20 straight completions at one point), for 360 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. It’s the type of stat line that grabs your eye in a way that few of his other performances this year have, and it does so while maintaining exceptional efficiency. To wit, Love posted +0.59 EPA/play on Sunday according to RBSDM.com, a 96th-percentile performance. That pushes him well into the lead among all quarterbacks in that metric, giving him 0.368 on the season.
The next-closest quarterback in EPA/play is Daniel Jones of the Colts at 0.344; Mahomes and Allen are still very good, but rank in the bottom half of the top ten at 6th and 8th place, respectively. Also, keep in mind that EPA/play includes quarterback runs as well, so the latter two have their running abilities factored in there.
As for the narrative and visibility? Well, Love has played his best when the spotlight is at its brightest. His two biggest games this season have come on Sunday Night Football — before Pittsburgh, his only other “big” game from a statistical perspective was in the Packers’ first SNF game, a 40-40 tie in Dallas. In that one, he went 31-of-43 for 337 yards and three scores, trading scores with the Cowboys as the Packers put points on the board on every drive of the second half and overtime. He was also extremely efficient in the team’s first two games, which had big television audiences, throwing for multiple touchdowns and no picks against the Lions and Commanders.
After week 8, he can add some more gaudy numbers to his counting stat line while being the difference-maker for the Packers in a huge nationally televised win against Aaron Rodgers. He made the story about him, not about his old mentor, and that’s the kind of narrative that can jump-start an MVP season.
To follow in Aaron Rodgers’ footsteps and earn an MVP award, Love will probably need to have several more big games like Sunday’s, as voters are not yet as nuanced in advanced statistics as they have become in, say, baseball. The Packers may also need to hold off the Lions for an NFC North title, and Love will need some more season-defining moments. For now, the team only has a couple of remaining games guaranteed to be on national TV, but they are big ones — a Monday night date with the Eagles in two weeks and the rematch with the Lions on Thanksgiving day.
At this point, Love’s odds of winning MVP (+1600) lag well behind Mahomes (+135) and Allen (+380), but he has climbed his way up to fifth in FanDuel’s list. It’s an uphill climb for Love to maintain his efficiency while working his counting stats up into a range that can compete with the favorites, but he _should_ be right in the thick of the conversation at this point. And he’ll have plenty of opportunities to continue to make a case that the award belongs back in the hands of an NFC quarterback this season.
See More:
* [By the Numbers](/by-the-numbers)
* [Green Bay Packers Analysis](/analysis)