The Chiefs were won one-score games in every way imaginable last year. The rest of the NFL wishes it could go back in time to face that Kansas City team. The current version is looking more like the vintage Patrick Mahomes-led teams circa 2019-22.
Kansas City (4-3, 4-3 ATS) has won four of five, and its past two victories were by a combined score of 61-17. Mahomes is playing like the league MVP (he lead the NFL with 18 total TDs), star wideout Rashee Rice is back and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is as good as ever (17.7 ppg - 3rd in NFL entering Week 8).
It doesn’t seem like things will change much at home Monday Night against the Commanders (3-4, 3-4 ATS), who won’t have their star QB Jayden Daniels (hamstring). Marcus Mariota starts for Washington, which enters Arrowhead as an 11.5-point underdog. The total is hovering around 47.5 at most of the best Ohio sportsbooks.
Still, there is a bit of good news for Washington. The Commanders, coming off an embarrassing 44-22 loss to rival Dallas, will get a boost by having wideout Terry McLaurin back and fellow WR Deebo Samuel available.
The public isn’t sold Washington can keep up. Sixty-eight percent of the money and 62% of the bets are on the Chiefs to cover the 11.5-point spread at DraftKings. As far as the total, over 47.5 is taking 65% of the money and 64% of the bets.
Can the Commanders catch the Chiefs looking ahead to next week’s clash against Buffalo? Or at least cover the spread? Let’s get into my Commanders vs. Chiefs predictions and best bets for Monday Night Football.
Commanders vs. Chiefs predictions and best bets for MNF Week 8
Under 47.5:-108 at DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 11.5 rushing attempts:-138 at FanDuel
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown anytime TD:+340 at FanDuel
I’ll admit, it doesn’t feel great to recommend the under the way the Chiefs’ offense is humming lately (31.5 ppg over the past four games). But it’s the bets that make us squirm that often turn out to be the right side.
With that said, there are a couple situational reasons I like the under here. The first being that while the Commanders are below average defensively (21st, 24.3 ppg), they are objectively not as bad as they looked against the Cowboys.
We tend to forget that NFL teams are comprised of the most competitive, prideful humans on earth. The intangibles definitely play a factor in these situations.
FOX Sports Insider Jay Glazer reported Sunday morning that Commanders’ coach Dan Quinn ramped up the intensity in practice this week. I expect a spirited defensive effort from Washington here.
The second reason is pretty easy to see: DC Steve Spagnuolo’s unit starring DT Chris Jones, LB Drue Tranquill and CB Trent McDuffie vs. Mariota isn’t a fair fight, even with Terry McLaurin back (he missed the last four games with a quad injury).
Of course, the one thing that could tank this under is Mariota throwing another pick-6 (like he did against Dallas).
My second pick of Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 11.5 rushing attempts is correlated to the under pick. It’s based in the belief that Washington will try to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible.
The Commanders should be able to have success doing just that. Kansas City is 21st in the NFL in terms of yards per rush (4.5). Croskey-Merritt is clearly the lead back for Washington, which is second in the NFL in rushing (148.9 ypg).
Finally, the pick of a “Hollywood” Brown anytime TD is mostly based on value. The Commanders are 25th in the league against the pass (238.3 ypg) and have given up the 6th-most passes of 20+ yards (22). Brown is bound to get overlooked now that Rice and Xavier Worthy are both back in the fold.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Missouri sports betting launches on December 1 and right now bettors 21+ in Missouri can download the DraftKings Missouri app.
Commanders vs. Chiefs moneyline analysis for MNF
Why the Chiefs can win as the favorite
Odds: -800 at Caesars
The Chiefs should win this game and I really don’t need to provide a ton of support here. They’re at home, facing a backup QB and have Mahomes playing at an MVP level against a below average defense.
If Kansas City loses, it will likely be due to turnovers and regression to their earlier season form in terms of red zone efficiency.
Why the Commanders can win as the underdog
Odds: +550 at BetMGM
If the Commanders win this game it will unquestionably go down as the biggest upset of the NFL season, both in terms of perception, and the moneyline odds. The only path to an upset here is through a dominant rushing attack and some big plays from their defense and special teams.
Could Washington catch the Chiefs looking ahead to next Sunday’s massive showdown against the Bills? Anything can happen, but it’s hard to see that happening in this particular matchup with the Commanders minus Daniels.
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