The worry about Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is at its peak.
There’s a menu of concerns, which, 24 starts into his career, is a problem in itself. His discouraging performance in the 30-16 loss to the Ravens included a continuation of issues that have hindered him, and Williams doesn’t have enough of a track record to write this off as a slump.
He completed 25 of 38 passes for 285 yards with no touchdowns and an interception for a 77.2 passer rating, and those numbers got a slight bump at the end when the Ravens had a prohibitive lead.
Bears coach Ben Johnson had some objections to how Williams played, but also highlighted some of the positives and said Monday that “he took a step forward” in the game.
It requires a lot of faith in Johnson, a first-year coach, to believe that right now.
Over his last four games, Williams has completed 60.8% of his passes, averaged 230.3 yards per game, totaled two touchdown passes and three interceptions for a 77.8 passer rating. He faced defenses that rank 20th or worse in opponent passer rating and 21st or worse in points allowed.
For the season, he ranks 24th of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage (61.9), 13th in yards per game (233.7), 19th in touchdown passes (nine), 19th in interceptions by percentage of his passes (1.8) and 20th in passer rating (90.2).
That’s not a disaster, but it’s not great, and the Bears surely expected better when they paired the former No. 1 overall pick with the No. 1 head-coaching candidate. Fellow 2024 first-rounders Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are ahead of him in passer rating.
The most troubling part of Williams’ struggles is that he’s making mistakes that have nothing to do with adjusting to a new play-caller.
Regardless of how poorly he was coached as a rookie by Matt Eberflus, he’s messing up things that any second-year quarterback should be past: holding the ball too long, a slow and imprecise pre-snap process, committing intentional grounding and taking sacks at the worst possible times (five on third downs) and misjudging defensive backs’ speed.
He had mental lapses at the end of both halves in Baltimore.
As the Bears looked for a late score going into halftime, 23 seconds dwindled between plays, then Williams got flagged for intentional grounding and forced the Bears to burn their last timeout to avoid the 10-second runoff. Ultimately, they tried a rushed, 58-yard field goal that was short.
Near the end, the game was virtually over, but the Bears were still clawing desperately for a chance. Johnson called a quarterback sneak on third-and-goal at the 1-yard line, which he admitted was a bad idea, and another 30 seconds ticked away before the ensuing failed fourth-down play.
Johnson has hammered urgency getting to the line of scrimmage, cadence consistency and avoiding false starts since the first time he got the Bears on the field in the spring, and the offense still isn’t up to his standard.
“Well, the good news is this is we’re not getting flagged for delay-of-game penalties,” he said.
That’s the lowest bar to clear in the sport.
“Our guys are doing a good job getting the communication out and getting it going,” he continued. “Is it as fast as we would like? No, it’s not.
“The more ball we play, the more we hear the same stuff, the more we do the same things, the faster our tempo’s going to be in and out of the huddle and on the line of scrimmage.”
Williams also sunk the Bears’ chance to overtake the Ravens with nine minutes left, trailing 16-13, and it wasn’t just that he threw an interception, but how he threw it and what he thought about it.
From his own 4-yard line, he fired over the middle to wide receiver Rome Odunze, but Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins darted in front to cut it off. Williams said he should’ve made a better throw, but Johnson called it ill-advised and repeated Monday that he should’ve checked it down. Running back Kyle Monangai was open in the flats.
Williams and Johnson were pointing out the same problem, though Williams didn’t seem to realize it. He thought he should’ve thrown a better pass, but Johnson essentially was saying that throw was impossible when windows close as quickly as they do in the NFL.
Next is his inaccuracy as a passer. At this point, it’s hard for Williams or anyone else to continue being surprised by that. Maybe that wasn’t an issue at USC, but it’s been the book on him in the NFL.
Pro Football Reference charted him 31st in on-target throws at 56.2% of his passes, and NFL Next Gen Stats have him a league-worst 7.1 points below his expected completion percentage.
Lastly, Williams hasn’t yet clicked with Johnson. An acclimation period was expected, but the Bears are nearing the phase when it should start looking right. At a minimum, there should be obvious signs it’s headed the right way.
The Bears remain in decent shape at 4-3 and will be favored in their next two games, but the schedule takes a brutal turn after that. They’ll probably be underdogs in six or seven of their final eight games, and the only way to flip that is to get Williams firing, but that still looks like a sizable project.