I feel like the correct way to start this piece is by saying “Yep. We are here once again.” Because we are on the brink of seeing another manager depart Wolves after a winless start to the season after being given a brand-new contract. I didn’t think it would be possible for it to happen again but alas, here we are.
As I already wrote a similar piece to this almost 12 months ago, this time I won’t waffle on why I decided to write it. However, in brief, I was curious to see how defined a style of play Wolves have and try to find managers who play similarly to ease the bedding in process with a group of players who will be familiar with playing that style of football. This style of play I aptly named “The Wolves Way”.
For those who haven’t read a piece of mine before, I am a third-year student at the University of Derby studying Performance Analysis and Coaching Science, as I aim to land a role in football as an analyst at the end of my degree. This piece will help towards my portfolio as an analyst, so if you do enjoy this piece, be sure to follow me on X, @DiggoryEthan, and my football scouting-based account @scoutingww.
What does “The Wolves Way” look like?
The basic premise of identifying how Wolves have played was to browse through FBref at the past eight Premier League seasons (18-19 to 25-26) and see which metrics we excelled at and which we underperformed at in allof those seasons. I defined excelling as having a mean rank of above 5th out of the 20 Premier League teams and underperforming as below 15th out of the 20 Premier League teams.
In terms of the metrics that we excelled at, there were five: long passes attempted, passes into the penalty area, switches, tackles in the defensive third and take-ons attempted. In terms of the metrics we underperformed at, there were 5: passes attempted by the goalkeeper, defensive actions outside of the penalty area, passes into the penalty area, dead ball passes and tackles in the attacking third.
To summarise the above, stylistically at least, it means that Wolves have always played a direct, counter-attacking brand of football, operating from a compact defensive block and looking to attack quickly and vertically once possession is regained.
I also looked at the most common formation used by our current and previous managers and the average age between them to get an idea of the profile Wolvesshould look for. This was found to be a formation of 3-4-3/3-4-2-1 with an age of around the 49 mark.
Methodology
The teams that were selected for the analysis were from the usual top five leagues in Europe as well as the Liga Portugal, Eredivisie, EFL Championship, Belgian Pro League and the Brazilian Serie A from 23-24 to 25-26. Those leagues’ respective data for the previously mentioned metrics were downloaded via Stathead by FBref and inputted into Microsoft Excel.
Where this differs from last year’s edition is that I had realised after writing and publishing the results from this piece’s predecessor, that the maths wasn’t quite as accurate as I had first thought. The primary element of this was not making each metric done on a per game basis due to the differing number of games played in the aforementioned leagues. This was completed as my first step to rectify last year’s errors, which was especially important for this piece as I have included data from the current season, where only a handful of matches have been played.
The second error to rectify was my similarity score. To not bore you with the maths element of it, essentially, the final similarity score wasn’t correct. So, to put that right this time, I used a cosine similarity score. In essence, this takes the results of one piece of data (in this case the Wolves eight season average) and compares the others against it to give a percentage of how close the comparison data (other teams) was to the original (Wolves average). Each metric was also normalised (given a ranked percentile out of 100%) rather than being inputted raw to generate better results.
So, to once again summarise the wordy part, those with a score closer to 1 represent a closer match to Wolves’ average performance in those metrics. Therefore, they suit how Wolves play and wouldn’t be a drastic change in style *cough* Ange Postecoglou to Forest *cough*.
To identify the strong candidates to take over at Wolves from these results and eliminate those of a lower calibre than would be needed for a Premier League job, two statistics were considered: xG Difference and places away from Wolves in the Opta Power Rankings. Those with a negative xG Difference and/or being too far above/below Wolves in the Opta Power Rankings were removed from the list of potential candidates.
Honourable Mentions #1
These managers didn’t make the cut based on a few distinct reasons: they won’t join because the job is too big a jump, they won’t join because the job is too small for them and those who have just been appointed at a new club at the start of this season. Where their data has come from is included in brackets next to their name.
Job Too Big
Johannes Hoff Thorup (Norwich City, 24/25)
Job Too Small
Claudio Giraldez (Celta Vigo, 24/25)
Cess Fabregas (Como, 24/25)
Marco Rose (RB Leipzig, 23/24)
Just Appointed
Will Still (Reims, 23/24)
Imanol Alguacil (Real Sociedad, 23/24 + 24/25)
Pierre Sage (RC Lens, 25/26)
Honourable Mentions #2
These managers didn’t make the cut because I don’t think that they would take the job due to our league position but could be convinced following one of Jeff Shi’s “promises”.
Inigo Perez (Rayo Vallecano, 24/25)
Rogier Meijer (NEC Nijmegen, 24/25)
Rob Edwards (Middlesbrough, 25/26)
Paulo Fonseca (Lille, 23/24)
Michel (Girona, 23/24)
Adolf Hutter (Monaco, 23/24)
Bruno Lage (Benfica, 25/26)
Some names from the original shortlist have been omitted for the top five that didn’t fit into either of the two honourable mentions sections, but felt that they would be realistic appointments but just not quite the right fit for Wolves.
Top Five Choices
Choice 5 – Vasco Matos
Club of Data Origin: Santa Clara (24/25 season)
Age: 45
“The Wolves Way” Score: 0.977
Opta Power Rankings Club Difference: -269
NPxG Difference: +11.4
Preferred Formation: 3-4-3
Win Percentage: 53%
A manager who I’ve had my eye on after last season’s impressive campaign with Santa Clara, almost qualifying for European football. Ticks all of the boxes really: similar age, good similarity score, great xG difference (suggesting coaching good performances) and a similar formation. The only reason the Portuguese makes it to five is purely how much difference there is in the Opta Power Rankings.
Choice 4 – Thiago Motta
Club of Data Origin: Bologna (23/24 season)
Age: 43
“The Wolves Way” Score: 0.978
Opta Power Rankings Club Difference: N/A
NPxG Difference: +12.5
Preferred Formation: 4-2-3-1
Win Percentage: 46%
On the face of it, this seems a bit of a far-fetched suggestion. However, Motta took an average Bologna side into the UEFA Champions League and was then appointed as Juventus manager where it fell apart a bit for him. However, maybe the experience of the Premier League could allure him to Wolves. Also, a free agent so would require no compensation. Just slightly ambitious at this point, so makes it to choice four.
Choice 3 – Michael Carrick
Club of Data Origin: Middlesbrough (23/24 + 24/25 Season)
Age: 44
“The Wolves Way” Score: 0.961
Opta Power Rankings Club Difference: N/A
NPxG Difference: +9.5
Preferred Formation: 4-2-3-1
Win Percentage: 46%
Again, this potential appointment could be seen in one of two ways. Is it a big jump from Championship management? Yes. Is it a good appointment should we already be preparing to go down? Also yes. Had a good spell in the Premier League previously withManchester United so I don’t think he’s incapable of a good spell at Wolves. Also a free agent.
Choice 2 – Carlos Corberan
Club of Data Origin: West Brom (23/24 + 24/25 Season)
Age: 42
“The Wolves Way” Score: 0.971
Opta Power Rankings Club Difference: -28
NPxG Difference: +11.6
Preferred Formation: 4-4-2
Win Percentage: 41%
I think this could be a very sensible appointment. Was already offered the job before Vitor Pereira but declined due to being the manager of them lot down the road. However, now he doesn’t have that connection anymore and is thriving with a struggling Valencia, I think he could be a very clever idea to give the job. Had two seasons that matched the requirements as well so offers consistency.
Choice 1 – Abel Ferreira
Club of Data Origin: Palmeiras (2024 + 2025 Season)
Age: 46
“The Wolves Way” score: 0.982
Opta Power Rankings Club Difference: +1
NPxG Difference: +20.8
Preferred Formation: 4-2-3-1 (Very Adaptable)
Win Percentage: 59%
I have genuinely never been so sure of a successful manager. He is a proven winner over in Brazil, has managed in Europe at a high level previously and fits every requirement including being Portuguese. The even better news is that the end of the Brazilian season is approaching so he could leave a club he is clearly very happy at the end of the season. I’m sure certain people in the Wolves space will be happy with this suggestion.
Conclusion
The top five choices for manager all have their own strengths and weaknesses when considering what they would bring to the table at Wolves.
For Vasco Matos, it would represent an option which is familiar with what Wolves fans are used to, albeit a fairly sizeable jump in club, but one I believe he can thrive with.
For Thiago Motta, Wolves would be getting a very successful manager who might see the job as a route back into management that could lead him to a bigger job should he be successful.
For Michael Carrick, he could help Wolves potentially to stay up and do a job now whilst also providing Wolves with insurance of a decent manager to help us in the EFL Championship should we go down, which appears likely at this stage.
For Carlos Corberan, we get a steady manager who can help us to turn it around which he has experience with at the moment with Valencia, albeit a much bigger job on his hands at Wolves.
For Abel Ferreira, Wolves could be seen as a slight downgrade, but the offer of managing in the Premier League could persuade him, especially if he can receive backing from the owners.
I think from this point, it is fairly obvious who I would like to be my number one choice for the reigns at Wolves. Only time will tell if that appointment even comes to fruition but if it does, my word will I be happy. Until then, we just have to see whether Vitor Pereira can dig us out of this mess although I don’t think that’s likely anymore.
If you have made it this far thank you very much for taking the time to read it. It has taken a little while for me to write and research but I hope that I have got across some ideas and potential management targets that I would love to see brought to the club. If you have any feedback, positive or negative, feel free to get in touch.