The 2025 Minnesota Vikings have reached a critical stage. Going into an important divisional matchup against the Detroit Lions, the Vikings have a 5% chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. A season with Super Bowl aspirations is officially on the brink and is now being placed on first-year starter J.J. McCarthy‘s shoulders.
Expectations like this come with a player who was the first quarterback selected in the top 10 in franchise history. It’s also come with a fanbase that has been eager to declare him a bust after two games, despite a fourth-quarter comeback in the season opener against the Chicago Bears.
After Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones left Minnesota and the Vikings turned down Aaron Rodgers this spring, many Vikings fans believe it is on McCarthy to turn this season around. But the truth is that McCarthy can’t do this by himself.
Many want to criticize Minnesota’s quarterback decisions over the past year, but they overlook the rationale behind those moves. The plan was to go with a quarterback on a rookie-scale deal to load up the rest of the roster and make things simpler as he acclimated to life in the NFL.
For many young quarterbacks, this has been a ticket to the Super Bowl. Since the NFL implemented a rookie pay scale in 2011, eight quarterbacks have reached the Super Bowl on rookie contracts per The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson. Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes also won a Super Bowl and appeared in two others during their rookie deals, giving general managers a blueprint for roster building.
However, Mahomes is the best quarterback in today’s game. Still, the list includes Colin Kaepernick (2012), Jared Goff (2018), Joe Burrow (2021), and Jalen Hurts (2022). If you can get strong quarterback play at a team-friendly price, it allows you to reinforce the rest of the roster in free agency and trades, propelling a young quarterback to another level of success.
That’s what the Vikings attempted to do this offseason. Kevin O’Connell made it clear Minnesota had to rebuild the interior offensive line after watching Darnold get thrown around in the final two games of the 2024 season. The Vikings responded by signing Will Fries and Ryan Kelly and adding Donovan Jackson as a first-round draft pick.
The jury is still out on Jackson, who is acclimating to life in the NFL and suffered a broken wrist in September. Unfortunately, Kelly is recovering from his fifth documented concussion since the start of the 2023 season. But Fries appears to be a lemon, grading 61st out of 115 qualifying guards according to Pro Football Focus in the first year of a five-year, $88 million contract.
The defensive line has suffered a similar fate. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were two former Pro Bowlers signed to be a disruptive force in the middle of the defensive line. But Allen ranks 95th and Hargrave ranks 104th among qualifying interior defenders this season.
The free-agent spending spree wasn’t all bad, as Isaiah Rodgers has been a strong addition to the secondary. But the misses are amplified by the fact that several players have had down years.
Some of this is due to injury, as Christian Darrisaw still doesn’t feel like himself after suffering a torn ACL and MCL last October. Aaron Jones and Blake Cashman also hit the shelf with hamstring injuries, while Andrew Van Ginkel is dealing with the most serious “tweak” since Danielle Hunter woke up on the wrong side of the bed in 2020.
But there’s another group of players who are just underperforming. T.J. Hockenson is in the second year of a four-year, $66 million contract extension, and he has just 27 catches for 222 yards and a touchdown over the first seven games. The Vikings made a significant investment to trade up for Dallas Turner in the 2024 draft, but he has a 55.5-overall PFF grade in 324 defensive snaps.
The Vikings were counting on Ivan Pace Jr., Theo Jackson, Byron Murphy Jr., and Harrison Smith to play major roles on Brian Flores’ defense, but none of them have been able to live up to the standard that was created in 2024. Even a player like Jonathan Greenard has fallen short, logging just two sacks and a million plays within an eyelash of adding to that total.
Even O’Connell has lost some of his luster, going from a quarterback whisperer to someone that people believe should give up playcalling duties. While receivers have been running wide open, the quarterback hasn’t been able to get the ball to them, due in part to a leaky offensive line and overall talent.
Of course, McCarthy’s return should upgrade Minnesota’s talent level. But while many expected him to take the keys to the car, it turns out the engine is smoking and the front tire is about to roll into the ditch.
Maybe McCarthy can elevate Minnesota’s roster. The good news is the Vikings have 10 days to find out. But it is also a situation that few quarterbacks can save, making McCarthy’s return clouded by concerns.