Let’s get one thing straight: Caleb Williams isn’t lighting the NFL on fire yet, but he’s also not some Zach Wilson-level bust. Through Week 8 of his second season, the Bears’ golden boy is sitting dead in the middle of the quarterback pack — literally. Out of 33 qualifying QBs, his average rank across 13 key metrics is 16th. Mediocre on paper. But the tape — and more importantly, the situational stats — tell a more complex story.
This dude is confusing as hell. One minute he’s throwing off his back foot into double coverage like he’s playing Madden blindfolded, the next he’s dropping absolute dimes while a 300-pound lineman tries to turn him into paste.
And yeah, we as fans have every right to feel restless. Caleb was the No. 1 pick — the supposed savior of the franchise — and so far, guys picked right behind him, like Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, are making louder noise. Every Sunday, it feels like we’re getting a fresh reminder of what those other QBs are doing while Caleb’s still fighting for consistency. The hype was massive, but the results? Mixed, at best.
So, let’s sift through the stats, the hype, and the bullshit to figure out who the hell Caleb Williams really is — and whether Chicago finally has a franchise QB worth a damn.
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*Stats provided form SumerBrain by Sumersports.com*
Situational Assassin: Caleb’s Clutch Gene Is Very Real
Let’s start with what Caleb’s actually elite at — because yes, there are flashes of elite.
Blitz Rating: 123.6 (7th/36)
Big Time Throw Rate: 4.9% (T-10th/33)
Sack Rate: 4.8% (11th/33)
Escape Rate: 12.4% (13th/42)
3rd Down Conversion Rate: 39.1% (24th/37)
That blitz rating isn’t a fluke. When defenses come after him, Caleb’s response is, “Cool story, bro. Watch this.” He’s been downright surgical under pressure. He wants the smoke — and thrives in it.
Big-time throws? He’s cracking the top 10, which says he’s not just dinking and dunking like a scared QB. He’s taking shots, and some of them are f***ing beautiful like that bucket drop to DJ Moore this week. *Chefs Kiss*
And sack avoidance? For a guy who got knocked in college for holding the ball too long and trying to play hero-ball, he’s only getting sacked on 4.8% of dropbacks. That’s ahead of dudes like Patrick Mahomes and Tua. He’s learning.
The Ugly Side: Red Zone Woes and Accuracy Nightmares
Now for the part Bears fans don’t want to hear.
Red Zone Success: 25.6% (32nd/38)
Completion %: 61.9% (24th/33)
Passer Rating: 90.2 (20th/33)
EPA/Play: 0.099 (23rd/33)
Expected vs Actual Completion: Huge Gap (Accuracy Problems)
When it’s time to cash in, Caleb turns into a pumpkin. Red zone? He’s damn near unwatchable. Only one QB is worse at converting in close — he’s bottom two. That’s a problem. Period.
And it ain’t just the end zone. His accuracy metrics are brutal. He’s missing open throws with baffling inconsistency, and when you stack his expected completion % against what he’s actually hitting? It’s ugly. Think Josh Allen early-career levels of wild.
Here’s the kicker: he’s not being asked to make hard throws. Per NFL tracking data, Williams has the easiest throw difficulty in the league. That means the scheme is doing the heavy lifting, and he’s still air-mailing slants.
Ben Johnson — who’s been a damn wizard dialing up this offense — is giving him layups, and Caleb’s out here trying to windmill dunk when a finger roll will do.
The Big Picture: What We Know So Far
So, is he good? Bad? Broken? Brilliant? The answer is frustratingly “yes.”
He’s average overall, but elite where it counts most — under pressure, outside structure, and when the moment gets big. That’s the clutch gene you can’t teach. But he’s dragging down his own ceiling with accuracy issues that shouldn’t still be this bad halfway through the year.
Here’s the full stat-line snapshot:
Metric Stat Rank
3rd Down Conv 39.1% 24th/37
Blitz Rating 123.6 7th/36
Escape Rate 12.4% 13th/42
Red Zone Success 25.6% 32nd/38
Passing Yards 1,636 12th/33
Yards/Attempt 7.3 9th/33
Air Yards/Att 3.7 15th/33
Sack Rate 4.8% 11th/33
Completion % 61.9% 24th/33
Passer Rating 90.2 20th/33
Total Turnovers 4 T-11th/33
EPA/Play 0.099 23rd/33
Big Time Throw Rate 4.9% T-10th/33
He’s middle-of-the-road overall, but that’s not a death sentence. Middle-of-the-road young QBs with elite situational numbers usually trend up. Think early Justin Herbert or Josh Allen. The bones are there.
Don’t Just Take My Word for It…
If you think I’m just blowing smoke, listen to a few football brains smarter than all of us armchair coordinators.
Matt Waldman, one of the best draft analysts and film grinders out there, said this:
“The awareness, touch, and power on this throw under these circumstances at this point in the game? Cmon.. Matthew Stafford-esque.”
That’s not just praise—that’s a f***ing comp.
Then there’s Benjamin Solak of ESPN, one of the sharpest analysts in the game, who dropped these gems:
“In that frustration, the ability to calibrate to Williams’ play has been lost. Because he has been relatively disappointing, that must mean he is outright disappointing. I strongly disagree. He has been good this season. We haven’t seen the things that were promised — stupendous, life-changing, franchise-resurrecting play — but he hasn’t been bad. Not just decent — better than decent. He has been good!”
He also sees the clear path for Caleb Williams:
“Through Allen’s first two pro seasons, he had an off-target rate of 23.5%. Williams is at 21.3%. Like Williams, Allen was clearly physically capable of making all the requisite throws. But he was excitable in the pocket, his mechanics vacillated from throw to throw, and his shot selection was high difficulty. The lightbulb went on for Allen in Year 3 under Brian Daboll — and after plenty of private offseason work on his mechanics. The lightbulb can come on for Williams just the same, if he does the work, and the football-consuming public gives him the time.”
In other words, the blueprint for turning chaos into cannon-fire success is already out there. Williams just needs to follow it.
And most importantly — Ben Johnson still believes in Caleb. Let’s not forget: Chicago landed Ben Johnson because he believed in No. 18. And he doubled down on that belief yesterday with this quote:
“He played better this game than I think he had the previous two. When you look at it, all 60 minutes, and I’m not saying it’s perfect. I actually came away, from watching the tape this morning, encouraged that we took a step in the right direction here this week. I know for some people it’s hard maybe to rationalize because the result wasn’t there. But yeah, I saw tangible growth from him. He’s working his a** off.”
— Ben Johnson via Carmen & Jurko, ESPN 1000
Final Verdict
Look, if you came here for a hot take saying Caleb’s a bust or a future MVP, you’re not getting it. What you’re getting is reality: he’s complicated, flawed, but damn promising.
He’s not carrying this team yet, but he’s also not dragging it into the toilet. He’s showing flashes of top-10 QB play with a floor that isn’t disastrous — and for a 2nd year QB, that’s worth celebrating.
Clean up the accuracy. Figure out the red zone. Keep the ballsiness.
If he does that? Chicago might finally have their guy.