The weight of history is stacked against Leeds United manager Daniel Farke as he looks to end an eight-year curse as his side travels to Brighton in the Premier League.
Daniel Farke will be hoping that his side can begin to build up a head of steam in the Premier League, after claiming their first home win of the season since the opening day.
They travel to Brighton to face a side that currently sit 13th in the competition, just one point ahead of Leeds. Brighton also look set to be without James Milner, who picked up an injury in his side’s recent defeat against Manchester United.
Farke is sweating over the fitness of Noah Okafor and Gabriel Gudmundsson, both of whom were substituted before the second half in the win over West Ham, with the Whites looking disjointed in their absence.
A point on the road against the Seagulls would represent a good return for Farke, who would need to end an unwanted 16-year run to claim a victory.
Luke Murphy celebrates during Leeds United v Brighton & Hove Albion - Sky Bet Championship
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Leeds United looking to end 16-year curse against Brighton
Although Farke’s Leeds side will come into the game against Brighton full of confidence following the Brenden Aaronson-inspired win over West Ham, Leeds’ recent track record against Brighton is cause for concern.
The south coast has not been a happy hunting ground, with Leeds last claiming a win over Brighton in 2009, according to 11v11, when both teams were in League One. Robert Snodgrass, Jermaine Beckford and Neil Kilkenny scored the goals in a 3-0 win.
Leeds are now winless in nine visits to Brighton, claiming just three draws in that time, and falling to six defeats.
Leeds’ record vs Brighton since Dec 2009 Home Away Overall
Won 2 0 2
Drawn 3 3 6
Lost 5 6 11
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Farke cannot take much comfort from Leeds’ overall record against Brighton, with their last home win coming in March 2017, meaning the Whites have not beaten the Seagulls at home or away in over eight years.
Leeds’ only other win over Brighton in the last 16 years came in August 2013, when the Whites claimed a 2-1 win on the opening day of the 2013/14 season, when Luke Murphy scored a dramatic winner.
Pascal Struijk of Leeds United challenges for the ball
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Opta SuperComputer predicts Brighton vs Leeds
Unfortunately for Farke, the Opta SuperComputer does not have better news after delivering its prediction for the Premier League clash.
Despite Brighton’s growing injury list, Opta still give the Seagulls an overwhelming chance of victory, as Leeds’ hopes of ending their miserable run in Brighton appear remote.
The model gives the home side a 66.3% chance of securing a win at the Amex Stadium, with an 18.4% chance of a draw and Leeds’ hopes rated at just 15.3%.
However, having secured their first home win over West Ham in 20 years, Farke will be confident that his side can continue to overcome the odds.