Manchester City's trip to Villa Park on Sunday proved a pivotal and frustrating affair. Their nine-game unbeaten streak was snapped by Matty Cash's 19th-minute winner, and worse still, Erling Haaland's incredible run of scoring in 12 consecutive games came to a halt.
The final whistle from the referee, Chris Kavanagh, brought a mix of relief and pure frustration that peaked when Haaland seemingly salvaged a point with an 89th-minute goal, only for it to be disallowed because Omar Marmoush, a glad returnee for City, was ruled offside in the build-up. Adding injury to insult, the effort cost Haaland a knock as he collided with the post while trying to reach the pass.
Whether he is rested for City’s League Cup fourth-round tie against Swansea City is still to be seen, but Pep Guardiola suggested on Tuesday that this could be the game where he is given some time to recover, adding: “I didn’t see him today but it was a knock and day by day he is better, but now we train this afternoon and will know more on how he feels and decide if he can play. This is a game where we could rest Haaland.”
There are more reasons that predict why Guardiola is likely to rest Haaland, especially because Swansea aren’t the strongest opposition that the Premier League club have faced this season; in fact, they show suggestions for an easy victory for the visitors.
Haaland collided with a post at Villa Park on Sunday (Photo by Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Getty Images)
But that may not be the case if the Norwegian forward is left in Manchester on Wednesday. So far this season, Haaland has scored 11 goals in the Premier League and sits at the top of the league's podium. Where is City’s second-highest scorer this season, you may ask? 56th. Tijjani Reijnders, who has scored on one occasion joint with others from City.
There are many problems that could arise on Wednesday night if Haaland isn’t fit, but it’s key to note what Guardiola will be missing. With the inclusion of his 11 goals in the English top-flight, Haaland has scored 24 in all competitions for club and country this season, which is 1.6 goals per game, or a goal, on average, every 56 minutes.
So important has Haaland been for City that, if he hadn’t been involved for the club this season, they would have lost to Arsenal in the fifth game of the Premier League season, Monaco would have beaten Guardiola’s side 2-0 in the Champions League, and Brentford and Everton would have both picked up a point from their meetings. It’s crucial to mention that instead of a 3-0 victory at the Etihad Stadium against Manchester United, that derby would have been a narrow 1-0 win without Haaland’s contributions; the same against Napoli four days later
Haaland scored against Arsenal in a 1-1 draw in September (Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
These points are all theoretical and full of ifs and maybes, of course, but at the same time, they show just how important Haaland, who was the runner-up in the 2023 Ballon d’Or award ceremony, is for the eight-time Premier League champions.
Not only should these statistics worry Guardiola as much as they impress him because of Haaland's incredible goal-scoring form, it should give Swansea a valid boost on a night where momentum is thrown out of the window.
Take a look at when Grimsby Town beat United on penalties, for example, or when Bradford City condemned Arsenal on penalties in the 2012/13 competition. It’s possible for upsets to occur, and although this one wouldn’t meet the surprise of those just mentioned, it would be a huge, huge headline so early into the season.
The Opponents
Swansea are a Championship club and, having picked up 16 points from 12 games, their first quarter of the season has been decent; not flirting with relegation, nor are they near the top of the table. They are currently in 13th in the second tier, which aligns well with their last four finishes since the 2021/22 season, in order of most recent: 11th, 14th, 10th and 15th.
Vipotnik has scored six goals for Swansea this season (Photo by Athena Pictures/Getty Images)
Does this matter against Guardiola’s side, though? Absolutely not. In fact, the Welsh side may even have their own Haaland to use on Wednesday. Zan Vipotnik has scored six goals for them so far this season, including two against Norwich on Saturday.
His first was a stunning, near-post finish from a counter-attack before he snapped another impeccable conversion from 25 yards into the bottom right corner.
Both goals highlighted the strengths of Alan Sheehan’s side: lethal counter-attacks and resilience. Norwich managed to pull a goal back on Saturday, but Vipotnik’s winner came from a foundation of discipline and a win-at-all-costs mindset.
Admittedly, that was against a side who have won just twice from 12 outings in the second tier — and are 23rd in the division. Guardiola’s side may prove to be a much more dangerous opponent with the ability to end this competition fast.
Will they clean up quickly on the south coast of Wales, or will Swansea pull off a memorable, against-all-odds victory? It could all come down to who is in that No. 9 position for the visitors.